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Winter 2018-2019 Speculation


Jonathan
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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

fkDxvSp.png

Image result for good god gif

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

 

When will the Griteater preliminary winter forecast be released?

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

fkDxvSp.png

Nice!

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

fkDxvSp.png

How much below normal temp is that darkest blue?

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46 minutes ago, griteater said:

Some thoughts on where I think we are headed with the QBO this fall/winter - https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1037734570198753281

0fY1XEf.gif

 

Thanks Grit! Of course I always look up the analog years, and there's only a couple of those winters that had a decent winter storm. But (I know) other factors need to be weighed for an overall winter comparison.  

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So, uhhh......what's winter really like in the Chapel Hill area?

We just bought land in Chapel Hill (out along Dairyland Rd) and we will be relocating there next summer. After the last 10 years or so of the arctic tundra of northern Illinois, we anticipate that winter down there is going to be a six month long autumn equivalent.

 

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Sept JMA release...3 month mean for Dec/Jan/Feb - https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

Image on far right is 500mb, middle is 850mb temperatures, far left is Sea Level Pressure

On the 500mb image on the far right, it has some ideal anomaly centers...max above normal heights in Davis Strait and along Canada west coast.  Max below normal heights in north-central Pacific and off the Northeast U.S. coast.  Only thing missing to make it nearly perfect is below normal heights off California to Texas (southern stream).

JMA has a low end weak El Nino on the SST chart

 

jijLrVG.gif

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On 9/10/2018 at 11:33 PM, DaveNay said:

So, uhhh......what's winter really like in the Chapel Hill area?

We just bought land in Chapel Hill (out along Dairyland Rd) and we will be relocating there next summer. After the last 10 years or so of the arctic tundra of northern Illinois, we anticipate that winter down there is going to be a six month long autumn equivalent.

 

Dave,

We get about 9 weeks of "seasonal" winter in the Triangle. 

~11 weeks of spring

~11 weeks of fall

...and about 21 weeks of summer.  [Some of it really hot and humid]

=52

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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I seen where CFS is forecasting low amounts of snow in October in Siberia! :( Hope it is wrong!!! That's where we always look for a sign for potential cold in the east in the winter. (when Siberia is above normal snow in October). :snowing:

Even when there has been record Siberian snowcover, we crap the bed! I’ll tell you how I’ll know how winters going, by how early fantasy snow storms show up on the GFS! Start that in Nov/Dec, it’ll be great! Don’t see one till February, we in trouble!

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2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I seen where CFS is forecasting low amounts of snow in October in Siberia! :( Hope it is wrong!!! That's where we always look for a sign for potential cold in the east in the winter. (when Siberia is above normal snow in October). :snowing:

Frosty el nino (modoki style) calls for our cold to be more continental based.  Not Siberian or Polar.  Given that, northern plains and Canada cold is plenty.  We need blocking (-nao) though.

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Here's the 12z GFS predicated snow cover anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere on October 12th.  Looks like we can't rely on the Asia snow cover build up theory. Maybe the only good thing it looks like North America is doing OK. But only OK.

 

 

2018-09-26_13-50-59.jpg

I think it's supposed to be the rate of increase through the month, particularly toward the end of the month.  Starting the month in the hole is probably a good thing, if you believe in the thing.  I am very skeptical that it matters.  Either way, I do hope we see a good and deep snow pack build-up eventually.  It's quite a useful thing to have.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

I think it's supposed to be the rate of increase through the month, particularly toward the end of the month.  Starting the month in the hole is probably a good thing, if you believe in the thing.  I am very skeptical that it matters.  Either way, I do hope we see a good and deep snow pack build-up eventually.  It's quite a useful thing to have.

I'm not sure as well. From what I've read (for the season as a whole) the snow build up is very slow this year. Friv (Global Warmer) is even positing in the Sea Ice thread; which isn't good when you see him posting...

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We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks?  I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand.  Anyway, I'm just speculating.  I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic.  Thanks.

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56 minutes ago, griteater said:

We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks?  I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand.  Anyway, I'm just speculating.  I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic.  Thanks.

You have the normal folks like JB, DT-WxRisk, Accuweather, Farmers Almanac, CPC, etc.. But really it's all speculation. I suppose an el nino (west based) would favor eastern troughs (southern storm) tracks (cooler not cold in the SE), ocean temps would favor high/low dominance (like Alaskan low), and then you get into the theories like Asian October snow buildup, solar minimum (the year before or after??), soil moisture, etc.

I take everything with a grain of salt. 

          

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