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July 19-20 Severe Weather


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evere Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INC077-KYC223-201845-
/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180720T1845Z/
Jefferson IN-Trimble KY-
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN TRIMBLE COUNTIES...

At 228 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Madison, moving northeast at 25 mph. Baseball hail
was reported at 227 pm in Milton and a funnel cloud near Hanover.

HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Hanover, Milton, Brooksburg, North Madison, Ringwald,
Manville and Hanover Beach.
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYC111-201930-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-180720T1930Z/
Jefferson KY-
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY...

At 251 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fairdale,
moving east at 30 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Jeffersontown, St. Matthews, Shively, Middletown,
Douglass Hills, Hurstbourne, Hurstbourne Acres, Audubon Park and St.
Regis Park.
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Large outdoor events and festivals are being either cancelled or moved in metro Indy due to the forecast of severe weather.  However, it appears for now at least, everything is happening east of the city.  We're not even in any kind of watch area.  Am I missing something?  

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15 minutes ago, Stormy46237 said:

Large outdoor events and festivals are being either cancelled or moved in metro Indy due to the forecast of severe weather.  However, it appears for now at least, everything is happening east of the city.  We're not even in any kind of watch area.  Am I missing something?  

Many of these decisions were made yesterday based on the forecast out of an interest in caution, but uncertainties remained regarding where the convection would actually fire geographically.  Better safe than sorry.  Remember the state fair stage collapse?

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Cool storms to watch.  They blew up around Kokomo in like 20 minutes.  Alittle more shear up here and it could've gotten very interesting.  Really nice radar depiction of the southern flank of the N IN line encountering the outflow from the SE IN storms that rolled through a few hours ago.  Muncie has been getting pummeled with nearly 5 inches of rain in the last 2 or 3 hours under that boundary.

(Time Sensitive :weenie: link)

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=IND-N0Q-1-24

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25 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Many of these decisions were made yesterday based on the forecast out of an interest in caution, but uncertainties remained regarding where the convection would actually fire geographically.

Understood.  It happens, and better safe than sorry.  I was just wondering if things are expected to fire up west of here at all or did that part of the equation fall apart?  Keeping an eye on impeding weather situations is part of my job and while I've always got a plan in place, it's nice to know if I need to be ultra alert for changing conditions to keep my patrons safe.  Normally, I monitor this group and keep my GRLevel3 running close by but I'm not going to have that luxury tonight.  

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The convection firing over southern Indiana a couple hours earlier hoped and growing upscale pretty quickly definitely limited the tornado potential and also the recovery on the cool side of the front where shear is strongest.  Scattered cells over eastern IN now probably will have a hard time becoming severe as they move into the worked over air over OH. 

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While all eyes are on the ongoing activity further east, this sounds ominous...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1108.html

Quote

   Mesoscale Discussion 1108
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0554 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

   Areas affected...Kentucky...Tennessee...northern Mississippi and
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 202254Z - 210130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to redevelop during the 00-03Z
   period along and perhaps ahead of the front, with a few tornadoes,
   very large hail, and damaging winds. Significant severe weather is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...An initial round of severe storms is currently lifting
   northeast across central KY, but a very favorable environment
   remains in place across the region ahead of a front. This boundary,
   currently extending from southern IN and IL into southeast MO and
   northern AR, will shift south this evening. Meanwhile, the main
   shortwave aloft over MO will dive southeastward across the lower MS
   Valley. The expectation is for storms to form both along the
   boundary, and possibly farther east across the open warm sector
   where a CU field currently exits, or, a southward extension of the
   ongoing KY activity into middle TN. Shear profiles will favor
   supercells, and perhaps bowing lines with time should outflow
   production be more than expected. While model solutions vary with
   the location, timing, and mode of expected severe storms, the
   environment is extremely unstable with unseasonably strong shear
   profiles. Thus, damaging hail, wind, and tornadoes are all possible.

   ..Jewell/Goss.. 07/20/2018

 

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

While all eyes are on the ongoing activity further east, this sounds ominous...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1108.html

 

A brief cell did pulse up over Nashville, but it has since fizzled back out.

Cap is still holding firm and the CU field is still looking pretty unimpressive right now. We'll see if that changes...

image.thumb.png.8c77c548579634e4eac7de9f267daba5.png

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40 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Interesting that the only 2 tornado reports on the SPC page for today are in WI (on a no-risk day, natch) and FL.

Well, we know there were at least a few in IN/KY even though they aren't in the prelim reports (at least not yet)

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Right split has died and left split is thriving out on the far western KY/TN border. That's always a good sign... I was never impressed with shear profiles regarding tornado potential today. Especially in the W/SW part of the risk area. Wind profiles were sufficient for a couple tornadoes, yes(and we got that) but didn't see much that warranted a 10% in my eyes, again, especially with W/SW extent where surface winds were significantly more veered. I'm not confident this new development will save the day either as winds have veered with time across the whole warm sector.

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Will be interesting to see the actual confirmed tornado counts for both days. Yesterday likely had a lot of duplicate reports.  Would not be surprised if the final count ends up being fairly similar for both days.  Yesterday could very well end up being a much more memorable day though as beyond the tornadoes, there's the tragedy in Branson.   

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A survey of the unwarned storm in Madison County, IN confirms the video.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
850 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...EF1 TORNADO STRUCK MADISON COUNTY ON FRIDAY...

A TORNADO WAS OBSERVED AND RECORDED VIA VIDEO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN MOONVILLE IN MADISON COUNTY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MADISON 
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY DETERMINED THE TORNADO 
TOUCHED DOWN AND DESTROYED A BARN...PRODUCED TREE DAMAGE AND 
FLIPPED A STORAGE SHED ONTO ITS SIDE. 

RATING:               EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:  100 MPH
PATH LENGTH:          0.25 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 30 YARDS
FATALITIES:           NONE
INJURIES:             NONE

START DATE:     JUL 20 2018
START TIME:     350 PM EDT 
START LOCATION: MOONVILLE INDIANA, MADISON COUNTY INDIANA, NEAR 
                350E (MOONSVILLE PIKE) AND GEMINI DRIVE
START LAT/LON:  40.1982 N / -85.6022 W (ESTIMATED VIA GOOGLE MAPS)

END DATE:       JUL 20 2018
END TIME:       352 PM EDT (ESTIMATED)
END LOCATION:   MOONSVILLE INDIANA. 0.25 MILE NORTHEAST OF TOUCHDOWN
END LAT/LON:    40.1997 N / -85.6001 W (ESTIMATED VIA GOOGLE MAPS)

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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
841 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 /741 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018/

...CONFIRMED TORNADO IN WABASH COUNTY ON JULY 20TH 2018...

We have received multiple video and picture reports of a tornado
that occurred between La Fontaine and Wabash in Wabash County on
July 20th, 2018. Details about tornado intensity and an exact 
path will be forthcoming. Please send any videos and pictures of 
the tornado or reports of damage to our email at 
[email protected] or reach out to us on social media.
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On 7/19/2018 at 5:29 PM, Stebo said:

Reminds me of the Lazbuddie, TX supercell back in 1991 with all the tornadoes off of one tornado at one time.

I noticed this while initially chasing it. When it was by Bondurant, I had to detour and saw a lot of areas rotating looking north on the backside. Wonder if my phone caught them. 

Nerve wracking day for me regardless. Rotation on the Bondurant storm blew up literally over my place (video here) 

Absurd video someone took from the same road my dad uses to get to work. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=734468023559973&id=100009903462169 My video of the other Bondurant tornado hitting a farm. Further back from the much closer one posted. https://mobile.twitter.com/JonBothe/status/1020042249336500226

Edit: Marshalltown and Pella tornadoes rated preliminary EF3, Bondurant low EF2 but mostly EF0-1.

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On 7/20/2018 at 3:18 PM, Chinook said:

There's a chance that this is an embedded tornado in this squall line near Fort Wayne

eoTRS8w.png

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
135 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018 /1235 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2018/

.UPDATE TO TORNADO - WABASH COUNTY...

THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE WABASH COUNTY TORNADO AS CONFIRMED FROM 
DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED ON JULY 20 2018. DETAILS FOR THIS TORNADO CAN
BE FOUND BELOW. THIS TRACK IS PRELIMINARY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES 
POSSIBLE AS MORE INFORMATION IS OBTAINED.

RATING:                 EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   25 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             JULY 20 2018 
START TIME:             314 PM EDT
START LOCATION:         3.8 N OF LAFONTAINE IN 
START LAT/LON:          40.7281/-85.7180

END DATE:               JULY 20 2018
END TIME:               315 PM EDT
END LOCATION:           4.3 NNW OF LAFONTAINE IN
END_LAT/LON:            40.7337/-85.7047

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF E CR 700 S AND
S CR 390 E WHERE THREE TREES WERE UPROOTED, SEVERAL TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN AND A ROOF REMOVED FROM AN OUTBUILDING. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED NORTHEAST, CROSSING S AMERICA ROAD WHERE TREES WERE
UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS BROKEN AT A RESIDENCE WHERE IT LIFTED. 
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