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July 21-23 Hybrid/Coastal Storm


Rtd208
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In addition to the heavy rain threat, we will have to monitor how deep this storm gets. NAM has an unstable lower atmosphere which would allow the LLJ to mix down to the surface for strong winds and potential spin ups.

1650882662_2018071912_NAM_066_40.46-73.26_severe_ml.thumb.png.772531727e28556359fe513d972bcec5.png

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, sb7916 said:

The timing for this unsettled pattern couldn't be any worse. I have an outdoor free movie night at Forest Park Bandshell in Woodhaven NY at 8:00pm on Monday July 23 and really hope we get a break by then in this Florida like airmass

Big Grease fan?

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1 minute ago, sb7916 said:

The timing for this unsettled pattern couldn't be any worse. I have an outdoor free movie night at Forest Park Bandshell in Woodhaven NY at 8:00pm on Monday July 23 and really hope we get a break by then in this Florida like airmass

They will reschedule like they usually do. No worries. 

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

I feel like I am tracking a winter storm the way the models have been shift around the heaviest rainfall, 18z GFS is back east again.

Good, keep it east. I want an offshore flow. There is nothing worse at the beach during the peak of beach season then a blasting onshore flow and resulting sand storm.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
444 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-202045-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
444 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An area of low pressure will impact the region late Saturday into
Sunday. A period of moderate to heavy rain is becoming more likely.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are forecast with locally higher
amounts possible in any thunderstorms that develop. This could cause
flash flooding, especially if the heavier rain falls over the New
York City metro area. Additionally, some of these thunderstorms may
be strong to possibly severe, with an isolated tornado not out of the
question.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&


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6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

NAM is still petty far west. It's also slower salvaging Saturday

Yeah it seems like this will really get going Saturday evening into Sunday. Upton even mentioned tornadoes are possible in their afternoon discussion, here is a snippet below.

As for severe threat, 0-6 km bulk shear of greater than 40 kt,
700-500 mb lapse rates of 5.5-6 deg C, 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt,
and K index of greater than 35 point to some threat of severe
weather. However, lifted index and MUCAPE are not that
impressive. Of note are some high helicity values as well as EHI
values approaching 1, which indicate tornadoes are possible.
SPC has not placed any part of our area in a severe risk yet,
but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible given the
above conditions, some with gusty winds approaching 40 mph or a
weak tornado.

 

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