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Hmmm, A July Hybrid Storm? - Possibly


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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AWT.. Spinners!

anomalous low level jet will provide
elevated instability. Further more low level inversion weakens in
approaching warm sector as dew pts climb into the low 70s. Thus low
LCLs combined with strong low level shear vicinity of warm front
will have to be watched for possible rotating T-storms late Sat
night into Sun morning. 
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Sort of comes across as though folks are already tinting their perceptions of this thing toward the following but ... imho this thing really isn't about a hybrid cyclone scenario.  

This is the reactivation of an old frontalysis into warm frontogenesis taking place at a deep latitude along the lower EC. Then...because of huge changes taking place at very large synoptic scales.. ultimately, that is instructing said feature N up the coast. 

What typically happens:  As that flow initially punches N it will have low/no resistance out over the waters immediately astride the coast/near 70 W.. Meanwhile, the air mass over the EC does offer some viscosity/resistance ...if purely from Ekman/BL effects and turbulent drag.. That flow rate differential causes the cyclonic curl, as the west end of the southerly jet at lower levels sags/"hooks"  But it's unclear at best whether that curl will have a centroid convective mass that starts lowering surface pressure and triggering the cyclostrophic flow and all that fun happy stuff/physics...  The curl would happen anyway... I think if one saw that on the charts and closed isobar or two, they may not be aware of that process causing that...and, because it would intrinsically have neutral thermal variation in its midst ..that may cause a faux impression of a warm core.

That said, it could still take place.  That's all likely to establish at least a weak cyclonic feature moving N ... whether it can additionally acquire baroclinic or barotropic physics, ...If either did, yeah I would think the warm phases would be favored...  

But by and large this is just a warm blast convulsively exploding N along the coast in respond to one of the most impressive WAR tsunamis I've ever seen.   I mean... jesus with closed 600 DAM heights N of Bermuda, and 594 contouring bursting west like a time-lapse of a pregnant woman's belly.  That pattern is a womb of torridity by the way...  

But can you imagine the fury if a hurricane were approaching the Bahamas along that SW edge of that surface WAR ..oh, Monday'ish

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58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sort of comes across as though folks are already tinting their perceptions of this thing toward the following but ... imho this thing really isn't about a hybrid cyclone scenario.  

This is the reactivation of an old frontalysis into warm frontogenesis taking place at a deep latitude along the lower EC. Then...because of huge changes taking place at very large synoptic scales.. ultimately, that is instructing said feature N up the coast. 

What typically happens:  As that flow initially punches N it will have low/no resistance out over the waters immediately astride the coast/near 70 W.. Meanwhile, the air mass over the EC does offer some viscosity/resistance ...if purely from Ekman/BL effects and turbulent drag.. That flow rate differential causes the cyclonic curl, as the west end of the southerly jet at lower levels sags/"hooks"  But it's unclear at best whether that curl will have a centroid convective mass that starts lowering surface pressure and triggering the cyclostrophic flow and all that fun happy stuff/physics...  The curl would happen anyway... I think if one saw that on the charts and closed isobar or two, they may not be aware of that process causing that...and, because it would intrinsically have neutral thermal variation in its midst ..that may cause a faux impression of a warm core.

That said, it could still take place.  That's all likely to establish at least a weak cyclonic feature moving N ... whether it can additionally acquire baroclinic or barotropic physics, ...If either did, yeah I would think the warm phases would be favored...  

But by and large this is just a warm blast convulsively exploding N along the coast in respond to one of the most impressive WAR tsunamis I've ever seen.   I mean... jesus with closed 600 DAM heights N of Bermuda, and 594 contouring bursting west like a time-lapse of a pregnant woman's belly.  That pattern is a womb of torridity by the way...  

But can you imagine the fury if a hurricane were approaching the Bahamas along that SW edge of that surface WAR ..oh, Monday'ish

Agree with your synopsis of this system John.

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wondering if this ends up being one of those landphoons we sometimes see with these tropics oriented systems . Can sort of picture that look on radar/sat as it moves northwest on Sunday morning 

Enjoy the warm front.

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