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WxUSAF

Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Never do well eyeballing for AO but that looks to me to be a neutral at worst. I think the washing out in the longer ranges is dampening what would probably be a negative AO. Wxbell doesn't have the numerical AO values by any chance? I see my guess that the pv is skewed to the other side of the globe is accurate. That semi split of the pv is located where the greatest warm anomalies have been/will be centered and the reason why I believe we see the pv featured or skewed on this run more to the other side of the globe.

eta: By the way, Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Never do well eyeballing for AO but that looks to me to be a neutral at worst. I think the washing out in the longer ranges is dampening what would probably be a negative AO. Wxbell doesn't have the numerical AO values by any chance? I see my guess that the pv is skewed to the other side of the globe is accurate. That semi split of the pv is located where the greatest warm anomalies have been/will be centered and the reason why I believe we see the pv featured or skewed more to the other side of the globe which has been my biggest fear for the front end of winter.

eta: By the way, Thanks.

I agree on the washing out. Makes it a bit ambiguous. IMO it probably goes from a weak -AO to neutral, but it is hard to say just looking at h5 and with lower res. Its a bit more clear looking at the MSLP anomalies. I should have posted those lol.

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48 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Noticed there is a poll out on consolidating winter forecasting - https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdfs/pns18-29hazsimp_winter.pdf 

Not sure where the best place was to put it! 

 

I’m not sure issuing a “winter storm warning for blizzard conditions” is an effective communication strategy.

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I’m not sure issuing a “winter storm warning for blizzard conditions” is an effective communication strategy.
Strongly agree. Consolidating all the hazards under the WSW header will only confuse the public and possibly make the hazards sound less threatening. Last year when we had a WSW for the big snow in January over here, most people were pretty blase about it; but once it was upgraded to a Blizzard Warning, people started paying attention to it .

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

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19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not sure issuing a “winter storm warning for blizzard conditions” is an effective communication strategy.

Ditto. I think that is a terrible idea. A WSW for 6-10 inches of snow is a completely different animal than 6-10 inches falling in 30-40 mph winds drifting 2-4 foot (or more) high.

Plus, what happens when you have snow on the ground and a windstorm blows thru? Issue a WSW for zero snow???

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1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

Ditto. I think that is a terrible idea. A WSW for 6-10 inches of snow is a completely different animal than 6-10 inches falling in 30-40 mph winds drifting 2-4 foot (or more) high.

Plus, what happens when you have snow on the ground and a windstorm blows thru? Issue a WSW for zero snow???

Good thing Sterling doesn’t have to worry about either of the last two scenarios happening.

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10 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Bring it.

That winter is the one people will be bringing up for the next 50 years hoping that the current winter they are in will match it. Wonder how many people realized at the time they were probably looking at a once in a lifetime event with KU's, total snowfall for this region and general over all awesomeness that the winter was?

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That winter is the one people will be bringing up for the next 50 years hoping that the current winter they are in will match it. Wonder how many people realized at the time they were probably looking at a once in a lifetime event with KU's, total snowfall for this region and general over all awesomeness that the winter was?

there's a 50/50 chance this winter beats 09-10. It either does or doesn't. 50/50 by my calculations. 

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5 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Reading between the lines a bit....Looks like a quick start to winter, a pull back in Jan (but doable) and then a classic el nino Feb/Mar

 

I am not sure a "slightly below average" January would really feel like a pullback or even be void of snow.  We are so used to torches in January a "normal" one might feel arctic.  

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