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WxUSAF

Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just out of curiousity...just how often does a NE suppression pattern setup like it did in 09-10? Lol Gotta be rare, right?

I have no idea. I know surprisingly little about winter because my life has been all about tropical. In New England of all places :lol: 

I did go through my records though today and found that apparently in 2015-16 I had more snow than a good portion of NE.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Well. I for one will admit that I am wishing for EXACTLY this! No offense.

None taken. I see how it is.

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From the NE forum. Please God let this be right. 

11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

New ecmwf seasonal is out on weather.us looks pretty sexy for all id say. 

Above normal precipitation for the I 95 corridor aside Jan. 

 

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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

From the NE forum. Please God let this be right. 

 

Non stop Winter :-)    make up for non stop summer 

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

From the NE forum. Please God let this be right. 

 

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

I think many are just happy to see things aligning with the potential for a decent winter.  I'd take the snapshots above....no extrapolation for NH needed. 

To your point, it shows potential for an active winter and at this juncture....something to be excited about.  Looking forward to the evolution and discussions thereof.

Nut 

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27 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I think many are just happy to see things aligning with the potential for a decent winter.  I'd take the snapshots above....no extrapolation for NH needed. 

To your point, it shows potential for an active winter and at this juncture....something to be excited about.  Looking forward to the evolution and discussions thereof.

Nut 

I really like the consistant PNA ridge it shows. We have seen a bad Pacific ruin our chances so many times. Fingers crossed.... no red flags so far for the winter.

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16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I really like the consistant PNA ridge it shows. We have seen a bad Pacific ruin our chances so many times. Fingers crossed.... no red flags so far for the winter.

Agreed.  Pac drives the winter bus for many of us, so +PNA would be a BIG + no matter how big the + really is. 

Having that alone would let me roll the winter dice.  Throw in some help from NAO/EPO and I'll push all my chips in...no matter the result.  I'm a believer that around here it needs to be cold to snow before anything else.  While, there are other ways to do it, they are just too low % IMO.  Gonna be fun this year.

Nut

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38 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  Pac drives the winter bus for many of us, so +PNA would be a BIG + no matter how big the + really is. 

Having that alone would let me roll the winter dice.  Throw in some help from NAO/EPO and I'll push all my chips in...no matter the result.  I'm a believer that around here it needs to be cold to snow before anything else.  While, there are other ways to do it, they are just too low % IMO.  Gonna be fun this year.

Nut

Hey , have you seen the latest SSTs in time progression in the Gulf Of Alaska and the general area West and Southwest of Alaska proper ?

Getitng warmer and warmer and maybe we get a + PDO afterall (  to a degree )

Not to mention , it seems like all the palyers on a global scale are re-organizing and starting to show what might be see later in the cold season .  

I like what I see and maybe December will be more traditional again in terms of winter weather  and not 80 degrees and playing hacky sack, and  Frisbee  in the back yard    :-)    

 

 

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

Assuming we are in at least a weak Nino, looking at the precip anomalies for Dec, in conjunction with h5, is it wrong for me to be having thoughts of 2009?

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

Its a free site. You can click around to get the area you want. This is Europe and Africa which does give you a good section of NAO domain.  us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018100100_4_1431_528.thumb.png.df2cbf33900b62466485d2cd120a34d1.png

us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018100100_3_1431_528.png

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us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018100100_5_1431_528.png

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its a free site. You can click around to get the area you want. This is Europe and Africa which does give you a good section of NAO domain.  

 

Ha I was just looking at that view. Looks like some decent +heights over GL for Dec.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ha I was just looking at that view. Looks like some decent +heights over GL for Dec.

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. ;) The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

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19 minutes ago, frd said:

Hey , have you seen the latest SSTs in time progression in the Gulf Of Alaska and the general area West and Southwest of Alaska proper ?

Getitng warmer and warmer and maybe we get a + PDO afterall (  to a degree )

Not to mention , it seems like all the palyers on a global scale are re-organizing and starting to show what might be see later in the cold season .  

I like what I see and maybe December will be more traditional again in terms of winter weather  and not 80 degrees and playing hacky sack, and  Frisbee  in the back yard    :-)    

 

 

I briefly looked the other day.  Yes, hoping the stubborn GOA low is not a player this year and is replaced by a ridge w/ a bit of cross polar flow.  Is that asking too much??  :P

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. ;) The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

Just change that to more of a basin wide/west and lock er up!!

 

 

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. ;) The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

Yup. At this juncture just looking for hints and the general idea. I am not hating what the Euro is advertising for the first part of winter. I mean all of met winter looks acceptable on those panels, but realistically Dec is in our sights now.

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. ;) The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

but too far west and we may play on the wrong side of the line sometimes as the trough axis may be too far west.  Oh the horrors.

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

but too far west and we may play on the wrong side of the line sometimes as the trough axis may be too far west.  Oh the horrors.

You got that right....Welcome to winter in the MA...where 10 scales need to be balanced just so to get snow...and can be one tip away from horror...lol

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19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You got that right....Welcome to winter in the MA...where 10 scales need to be balanced just so to get snow...and can be one tip away from horror...lol

That's not exactly true. We've wasted ungodly amounts of "great setups" and walked into many decent events with a crap pattern. The MA's snows are built around chaos more than climo/patterns. 13-14 was a bad snow pattern for our region and it couldn't stop snowing. 93-94 shows what happens with the same pattern in the other direction. 

Ultimately, the only gold standard for good snow seasons is an active southern jet. Getting attacked from the SW is where it's at. Not clippers, or jumpers, or redevelopers. We need a slug of moisture from the TN valley to come right at us. Warm enso favors those type of precip events. I feel good about this year in that regard but making calls or getting excited in Oct isn't something I do anymore. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not exactly true. We've wasted ungodly amounts of "great setups" and walked into many decent events with a crap pattern. The MA's snows are built around chaos more than climo/patterns. 13-14 was a bad snow pattern for our region and it couldn't stop snowing. 93-94 shows what happens with the same pattern in the other direction. 

Ultimately, the only gold standard for good snow seasons is an active southern jet. Getting attacked from the SW is where it's at. Not clippers, or jumpers, or redevelopers. We need a slug of moisture from the TN valley to come right at us. Warm enso favors those type of precip events. I feel good about this year in that regard but making calls or getting excited in Oct isn't something I do anymore. 

Great post as usual. Maybe because we are coming out of a 2 year nina some are projecting what is true of a Nina into our winter patterns in general. During a Nina it's true we need a lot to line up and it feels we're always fighting to push the boulder up the mountain to get snow. But that's because ninas also tend to be absent a robust southern stream. My research last year confirmed that during a Nina it's almost a prerequisite to get some major help from the ao/nao to get snow. But that's not as true in all other winters. If we look at enso neutral or positive years the correlation between snow and the nao is still there but it's not as pronounced. We can and have and will again luck our way to snow in imperfect patterns but usually it involves moisture coming at us from the SW as you said. 

Definitely agree on chaos.  Some years the cards are definitely stacked for or against us but we can still get lucky a couple times in a crappy pattern year and get unlucky in a year where things could have ended better.  But for some reason that seeks to divide the forum and start a fight with the "persistence" crew.  To me both can be true.  Yes there is persistence to patterns and being in a bad base state makes snow less likely.  Saying there is chaos isn't denying that. But patterns also change or flukes can happen.  Both factor into our fate.

 

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32 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Can't come soon enough. Hype train seems to be leaving the station.

It has already left the station :lol:

And yes, I am on board

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Siberia Snow cover , something a bit unusual versus the last 5 to 8 years ( less snow cover advance ) 

But, I myself don't see this as a concern , and I actually think the odds this year are better than recent years that we are going to get cooperation in regards to blocking and a favorable Pac as well. 

I actually remember last year that he said snow snow advanced too quickly.  In it's high interest years ( 20012 to 2016 )  folks would be calculatiung the squares km by the weeks,  but what I find very interesting now is the snow in Canada. 

 

 

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Like the very mild  first 10 days October and next would like to avoid any intense mid Atlantic coastal storminess in time period 10/23-10/30. Looking good for winter I think, not spectacular snow but above normal chance of catching a giant one even if only 30% versus the typical 5-10%.

I think Jan is quite cold and even Keith does not have a torch like the dreck of last 2 winter.

still think we will get 12-15 downtown and 18 to 25 in suburbs, not great but good  things to do.

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, frd said:

Siberia Snow cover , something a bit unusual versus the last 5 to 8 years ( less snow cover advance ) 

But, I myself don't see this as a concern , and I actually think the odds this year are better than recent years that we are going to get cooperation in regards to blocking and a favorable Pac as well. 

I actually remember last year that he said snow snow advanced too quickly.  In it's high interest years ( 20012 to 2016 )  folks would be calculatiung the squares km by the weeks,  but what I find very interesting now is the snow in Canada. 

 

 

Time is running out..

If the rate of change of snow advance during October in Eurasia is meager, y'all know what that means- a positive AO winter is a comin'!

 

 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Time is running out..

If the rate of change of snow advance during October in Eurasia is meager, y'all know what that means- a positive AO winter is a comin'!

 

 

So you are saying I shouldn't be packing away my shorts and sandals quite yet?

Though the correlation between October snowfall advance and AO state had a good run, the last few years have made it quite obvious that other factors are in play as well. So like you I will take whatever we see in this regards with a large dose of skepticism. Now as long as I continue to see decent warm anomalies over the arctic regions I will remain optimistic that we will see a weakened PV and most probably -AO. At least for the lead in to winter which is important for establishing the winter regime. 

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35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So you are saying I shouldn't be packing away my shorts and sandals quite yet?

Though the correlation between October snowfall advance and AO state had a good run, the last few years have made it quite obvious that other factors are in play as well. So like you I will take whatever we see in this regards with a large dose of skepticism. Now as long as I continue to see decent warm anomalies over the arctic regions I will remain optimistic that we will see a weakened PV and most probably -AO. At least for the lead in to winter which is important for establishing the winter regime. 

I really have no idea how much of a factor it is, but imo Cohen way overplays it. Probably a weak correlation at best. The dude is a self promoter though, and he is more than happy to take credit for cold/snowy outcomes, even when the mechanisms that produced it literally didn't evolve per his theory. Remember the epic snow period in NE, particularly the Boston area, a few winters ago? He gleefully claimed victory.

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47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I really have no idea how much of a factor it is, but imo Cohen way overplays it. Probably a weak correlation at best. The dude is a self promoter though, and he is more than happy to take credit for cold/snowy outcomes, even when the mechanisms that produced it literally didn't evolve per his theory. Remember the epic snow period in NE, particularly the Boston area, a few winters ago? He gleefully claimed victory.

True.

Looking at some of the models there is going to be a rather significant expansion of snow cover soon up there in Siberia .  I still feel though there is some correlation to the the coming solar minimum. 

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