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Winter 2018-19 Is Coming


WxUSAF
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Here are a couple of videos to get you pumped up for winter.  It is strangely gratifying to watch other people working in the snow with all of that awesome snowy scenery in the background!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp1Wti5zg3Q

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFTGFrooN8g

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lwDxyJniZ0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4K9Cscxlj64

 

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Here is one more you guys may find interesting if you like snowy scenery.  This guy built a log cabin in central Ontario last fall using only hand tools.  He was fighting to get it under roof before the snow came (which comes early up north).  He said in a video in September of this year that the snow geese were already migrating south in mid-September (about a month earlier than last year) and it was the earliest he can recall them heading south in organized groups.  Sometimes the animal are the best forecasters!  Here are some of his videos from last year.  He puts up a new 20-30 min video each week on Fridays.  If you want to track when snow is moving south from up north this is a good series to watch.  Below the first video is a year end video which was a compilation of him building the cabin (not his normal video format).  A couple of the others are his standard weekly video formats with some of the kind of snow scenery we all live for!  Enjoy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rgGEkI510Q -  (2017 year end compilation video - not his standard weekly format)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8qtxwlVGVs - (a standard video - the snow begins)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Xxqggt0FVg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A52txNt-tU0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HruUMy6QDU - Making Maple syrup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcqUx1rWC1s - current video -he's come a long way~

 

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1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said:

DT looks like he is getting closer and closer to being all in on this winter

 

dt.JPG

 

I have seen some on the web mention   Michael and the Opal 1995 redux , but that was Nina not Nino .

Then I hear the progression from early Oct warmth to cooler just like in 2002.  Certainly seems like things are changing on many fronts now, but what the final outcome is is for the upcoming winter is still hard to determine.

 

 

 

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 YES PLEASE  !!!!!!!

I love it , the new seasonal UKMET , supports the Euro , yet it is colder and the above normal precip along the  East Coast is there .

 

Kattie Bar the Door, ( Herb Clarke ) anyone remember him , well, then if you do you are old like me..... , Ha ha  ( J/K ) 

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

October 2018 Months 4-6  Global 2 m temperature

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, frd said:

 YES PLEASE  !!!!!!!

I love it , the new seasonal UKMET , supports the Euro , yet it is colder and the above normal precip along the  East Coast is there .

Kattie Bar the Door, ( Herb Clarke ) anyone remember him , well, then if you do you are old like me..... , Ha ha  ( J/K ) 

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

 

 

Excellent, I'm getting excited for this winter.  

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3 hours ago, frd said:

 YES PLEASE  !!!!!!!

I love it , the new seasonal UKMET , supports the Euro , yet it is colder and the above normal precip along the  East Coast is there .

 

Kattie Bar the Door, ( Herb Clarke ) anyone remember him , well, then if you do you are old like me..... , Ha ha  ( J/K ) 

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

 

Took a quick glance at it. Pretty nice h5 look, and it looks Nino-ish. Not too shabby.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Took a quick glance at it. Pretty nice h5 look, and it looks Nino-ish. Not too shabby.

Check out the mslp anomalies for Dec/Feb. Great look. Negative departures running up and off the east coast and we have a bulls-eye of large negative departures in the 50/50 region. Can we say Coastals? 

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23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Check out the mslp anomalies for Dec/Feb. Great look. Negative departures running up and off the east coast and we have a bulls-eye of large negative departures in the 50/50 region. Can we say Coastals? 

Its a tad scary how good things are looking right now.

And I really DGAS what happens with Eurasian snow cover over the next few weeks.

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Somewhere, Judah Cohen shed a tear just now.

Been following him for a while.  Hard not to like where we are........so far ;)

Hold the line......hold the line......

As stated above, if the H5 look from afar comes to fruition for DJF....most here would gladly take our chances.  Even if Nino stays low end and and we have only 1" of snow on 10" of frozen ponds....at least it might stick around and feel like deep winter.  Of course I'd be happier to have those numbers switched.  Getting too old to ice skate.

 

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On 10/6/2018 at 11:01 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh how I pray :lol: 

With my luck it’ll be another 09-10 with suppression depression in NE and monster after monster down there. If so, I’ll pay double the going rate for your place out near McHenry.

Just out of curiousity...just how often does a NE suppression pattern setup like it did in 09-10? Lol Gotta be rare, right?

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On 10/6/2018 at 11:01 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh how I pray :lol: 

With my luck it’ll be another 09-10 with suppression depression in NE and monster after monster down there. If so, I’ll pay double the going rate for your place out near McHenry.

Well. I for one will admit that I am wishing for EXACTLY this! No offense.

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

From the NE forum. Please God let this be right. 

 

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

I think many are just happy to see things aligning with the potential for a decent winter.  I'd take the snapshots above....no extrapolation for NH needed. 

To your point, it shows potential for an active winter and at this juncture....something to be excited about.  Looking forward to the evolution and discussions thereof.

Nut 

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27 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I think many are just happy to see things aligning with the potential for a decent winter.  I'd take the snapshots above....no extrapolation for NH needed. 

To your point, it shows potential for an active winter and at this juncture....something to be excited about.  Looking forward to the evolution and discussions thereof.

Nut 

I really like the consistant PNA ridge it shows. We have seen a bad Pacific ruin our chances so many times. Fingers crossed.... no red flags so far for the winter.

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16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I really like the consistant PNA ridge it shows. We have seen a bad Pacific ruin our chances so many times. Fingers crossed.... no red flags so far for the winter.

Agreed.  Pac drives the winter bus for many of us, so +PNA would be a BIG + no matter how big the + really is. 

Having that alone would let me roll the winter dice.  Throw in some help from NAO/EPO and I'll push all my chips in...no matter the result.  I'm a believer that around here it needs to be cold to snow before anything else.  While, there are other ways to do it, they are just too low % IMO.  Gonna be fun this year.

Nut

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38 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  Pac drives the winter bus for many of us, so +PNA would be a BIG + no matter how big the + really is. 

Having that alone would let me roll the winter dice.  Throw in some help from NAO/EPO and I'll push all my chips in...no matter the result.  I'm a believer that around here it needs to be cold to snow before anything else.  While, there are other ways to do it, they are just too low % IMO.  Gonna be fun this year.

Nut

Hey , have you seen the latest SSTs in time progression in the Gulf Of Alaska and the general area West and Southwest of Alaska proper ?

Getitng warmer and warmer and maybe we get a + PDO afterall (  to a degree )

Not to mention , it seems like all the palyers on a global scale are re-organizing and starting to show what might be see later in the cold season .  

I like what I see and maybe December will be more traditional again in terms of winter weather  and not 80 degrees and playing hacky sack, and  Frisbee  in the back yard    :-)    

 

 

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

Assuming we are in at least a weak Nino, looking at the precip anomalies for Dec, in conjunction with h5, is it wrong for me to be having thoughts of 2009?

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

Its a free site. You can click around to get the area you want. This is Europe and Africa which does give you a good section of NAO domain.  us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018100100_4_1431_528.thumb.png.df2cbf33900b62466485d2cd120a34d1.png

us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018100100_3_1431_528.png

us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018100100_2_1431_528.png

us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018100100_5_1431_528.png

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