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Winter 2018-19 Is Coming


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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ha I was just looking at that view. Looks like some decent +heights over GL for Dec.

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. ;) The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

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19 minutes ago, frd said:

Hey , have you seen the latest SSTs in time progression in the Gulf Of Alaska and the general area West and Southwest of Alaska proper ?

Getitng warmer and warmer and maybe we get a + PDO afterall (  to a degree )

Not to mention , it seems like all the palyers on a global scale are re-organizing and starting to show what might be see later in the cold season .  

I like what I see and maybe December will be more traditional again in terms of winter weather  and not 80 degrees and playing hacky sack, and  Frisbee  in the back yard    :-)    

 

 

I briefly looked the other day.  Yes, hoping the stubborn GOA low is not a player this year and is replaced by a ridge w/ a bit of cross polar flow.  Is that asking too much??  :P

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. ;) The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

Just change that to more of a basin wide/west and lock er up!!

 

 

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. ;) The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

Yup. At this juncture just looking for hints and the general idea. I am not hating what the Euro is advertising for the first part of winter. I mean all of met winter looks acceptable on those panels, but realistically Dec is in our sights now.

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. ;) The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

but too far west and we may play on the wrong side of the line sometimes as the trough axis may be too far west.  Oh the horrors.

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19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You got that right....Welcome to winter in the MA...where 10 scales need to be balanced just so to get snow...and can be one tip away from horror...lol

That's not exactly true. We've wasted ungodly amounts of "great setups" and walked into many decent events with a crap pattern. The MA's snows are built around chaos more than climo/patterns. 13-14 was a bad snow pattern for our region and it couldn't stop snowing. 93-94 shows what happens with the same pattern in the other direction. 

Ultimately, the only gold standard for good snow seasons is an active southern jet. Getting attacked from the SW is where it's at. Not clippers, or jumpers, or redevelopers. We need a slug of moisture from the TN valley to come right at us. Warm enso favors those type of precip events. I feel good about this year in that regard but making calls or getting excited in Oct isn't something I do anymore. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not exactly true. We've wasted ungodly amounts of "great setups" and walked into many decent events with a crap pattern. The MA's snows are built around chaos more than climo/patterns. 13-14 was a bad snow pattern for our region and it couldn't stop snowing. 93-94 shows what happens with the same pattern in the other direction. 

Ultimately, the only gold standard for good snow seasons is an active southern jet. Getting attacked from the SW is where it's at. Not clippers, or jumpers, or redevelopers. We need a slug of moisture from the TN valley to come right at us. Warm enso favors those type of precip events. I feel good about this year in that regard but making calls or getting excited in Oct isn't something I do anymore. 

Great post as usual. Maybe because we are coming out of a 2 year nina some are projecting what is true of a Nina into our winter patterns in general. During a Nina it's true we need a lot to line up and it feels we're always fighting to push the boulder up the mountain to get snow. But that's because ninas also tend to be absent a robust southern stream. My research last year confirmed that during a Nina it's almost a prerequisite to get some major help from the ao/nao to get snow. But that's not as true in all other winters. If we look at enso neutral or positive years the correlation between snow and the nao is still there but it's not as pronounced. We can and have and will again luck our way to snow in imperfect patterns but usually it involves moisture coming at us from the SW as you said. 

Definitely agree on chaos.  Some years the cards are definitely stacked for or against us but we can still get lucky a couple times in a crappy pattern year and get unlucky in a year where things could have ended better.  But for some reason that seeks to divide the forum and start a fight with the "persistence" crew.  To me both can be true.  Yes there is persistence to patterns and being in a bad base state makes snow less likely.  Saying there is chaos isn't denying that. But patterns also change or flukes can happen.  Both factor into our fate.

 

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Siberia Snow cover , something a bit unusual versus the last 5 to 8 years ( less snow cover advance ) 

But, I myself don't see this as a concern , and I actually think the odds this year are better than recent years that we are going to get cooperation in regards to blocking and a favorable Pac as well. 

I actually remember last year that he said snow snow advanced too quickly.  In it's high interest years ( 20012 to 2016 )  folks would be calculatiung the squares km by the weeks,  but what I find very interesting now is the snow in Canada. 

 

 

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Like the very mild  first 10 days October and next would like to avoid any intense mid Atlantic coastal storminess in time period 10/23-10/30. Looking good for winter I think, not spectacular snow but above normal chance of catching a giant one even if only 30% versus the typical 5-10%.

I think Jan is quite cold and even Keith does not have a torch like the dreck of last 2 winter.

still think we will get 12-15 downtown and 18 to 25 in suburbs, not great but good  things to do.

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, frd said:

Siberia Snow cover , something a bit unusual versus the last 5 to 8 years ( less snow cover advance ) 

But, I myself don't see this as a concern , and I actually think the odds this year are better than recent years that we are going to get cooperation in regards to blocking and a favorable Pac as well. 

I actually remember last year that he said snow snow advanced too quickly.  In it's high interest years ( 20012 to 2016 )  folks would be calculatiung the squares km by the weeks,  but what I find very interesting now is the snow in Canada. 

 

 

Time is running out..

If the rate of change of snow advance during October in Eurasia is meager, y'all know what that means- a positive AO winter is a comin'!

 

 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Time is running out..

If the rate of change of snow advance during October in Eurasia is meager, y'all know what that means- a positive AO winter is a comin'!

 

 

So you are saying I shouldn't be packing away my shorts and sandals quite yet?

Though the correlation between October snowfall advance and AO state had a good run, the last few years have made it quite obvious that other factors are in play as well. So like you I will take whatever we see in this regards with a large dose of skepticism. Now as long as I continue to see decent warm anomalies over the arctic regions I will remain optimistic that we will see a weakened PV and most probably -AO. At least for the lead in to winter which is important for establishing the winter regime. 

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35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So you are saying I shouldn't be packing away my shorts and sandals quite yet?

Though the correlation between October snowfall advance and AO state had a good run, the last few years have made it quite obvious that other factors are in play as well. So like you I will take whatever we see in this regards with a large dose of skepticism. Now as long as I continue to see decent warm anomalies over the arctic regions I will remain optimistic that we will see a weakened PV and most probably -AO. At least for the lead in to winter which is important for establishing the winter regime. 

I really have no idea how much of a factor it is, but imo Cohen way overplays it. Probably a weak correlation at best. The dude is a self promoter though, and he is more than happy to take credit for cold/snowy outcomes, even when the mechanisms that produced it literally didn't evolve per his theory. Remember the epic snow period in NE, particularly the Boston area, a few winters ago? He gleefully claimed victory.

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47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I really have no idea how much of a factor it is, but imo Cohen way overplays it. Probably a weak correlation at best. The dude is a self promoter though, and he is more than happy to take credit for cold/snowy outcomes, even when the mechanisms that produced it literally didn't evolve per his theory. Remember the epic snow period in NE, particularly the Boston area, a few winters ago? He gleefully claimed victory.

True.

Looking at some of the models there is going to be a rather significant expansion of snow cover soon up there in Siberia .  I still feel though there is some correlation to the the coming solar minimum. 

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59 minutes ago, frd said:

True.

Looking at some of the models there is going to be a rather significant expansion of snow cover soon up there in Siberia .  I still feel though there is some correlation to the the coming solar minimum. 

For me, that's one of the factors that actually has historical weight behind it in terms of how it relates to a good winter...And with a possible weak Modoki setting up (and hearing some rumblings that perhaps it could turn into a two-year event)...I'm hopeful that I'll be using my shovel after a warning level event again either this winter, next winter, or both! (Wasn't there only one solar minimum in recent decades where we DIDN'T cash in somehow? Barring that terrible setup...we oughta be in pretty good shape, right?)

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I'm becoming more interested in the anomalous AK ridge happening lately. That's actually a decent feature for cold outbreaks in the US. Maybe we get an enso climo favored Aleutian low with a -epo ridge over the top. Even better would be a +pna ridge connecting to the -epo ridge. Then throw in low heights in socal undercutting the +pna and storm track across the southern tier. Lastly, having some northern energy riding down the massive -epo/+pna ridge that phases with the southern stream. Yea, that would work. 

Only half of my post is in jest. This is a legit consideration we'll know more about in a few months. Arctic amplification has a recurring theme over the last decade. Location seems to move around year to year but it's been happening a lot. Nasty AK ridge is a net + in these parts. 

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38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm becoming more interested in the anomalous AK ridge happening lately. That's actually a decent feature for cold outbreaks in the US. Maybe we get an enso climo favored Aleutian low with a -epo ridge over the top. Even better would be a +pna ridge connecting to the -epo ridge. Then throw in low heights in socal undercutting the +pna and storm track across the southern tier. Lastly, having some northern energy riding down the massive -epo/+pna ridge that phases with the southern stream. Yea, that would work. 

Only half of my post is in jest. This is a legit consideration we'll know more about in a few months. Arctic amplification has a recurring theme over the last decade. Location seems to move around year to year but it's been happening a lot. Nasty AK ridge is a net + in these parts. 

Yeah whats happening around AK caught my eye too. Also looking for some early hints of HL blocking. Looks like the GEFS kinda wants to develop an east based block towards the end of its run lol.

With all the anticipation for an epic winter (lol) I reactivated my WB account early. Just for kicks I looked at the latest EPS weeklies. It's way out there, but it has a favorable h5 look mid to late Nov- Aleutian low, EPO ridge, expansive red/orange colors up top, and building over GL from mid month on. Not very cold verbatim, but it would be November and its silly to over analyze a LR tool. The upshot is the players are on the field and in pretty good position.

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41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah whats happening around AK caught my eye too. Also looking for some early hints of HL blocking. Looks like the GEFS kinda wants to develop an east based block towards the end of its run lol.

With all the anticipation for an epic winter (lol) I reactivated my WB account early. Just for kicks I looked at the latest EPS weeklies. It's way out there, but it has a favorable h5 look mid to late Nov- Aleutian low, EPO ridge, expansive red/orange colors up top, and building over GL from mid month on. Not very cold verbatim, but it would be November and its silly to over analyze a LR tool. The upshojt is the players are on the field and in pretty good position.

I believe the JMA weeklies show a builiding West Coast ridge week 4 .

And on another note very interesting in regards to  Chukchi Sea, this is the area near and around all the recent warmth up there .

More and more warmth aimed up there 

 

 

 

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I'm becoming more interested in the anomalous AK ridge happening lately. That's actually a decent feature for cold outbreaks in the US. Maybe we get an enso climo favored Aleutian low with a -epo ridge over the top. Even better would be a +pna ridge connecting to the -epo ridge. Then throw in low heights in socal undercutting the +pna and storm track across the southern tier. Lastly, having some northern energy riding down the massive -epo/+pna ridge that phases with the southern stream. Yea, that would work. 
Only half of my post is in jest. This is a legit consideration we'll know more about in a few months. Arctic amplification has a recurring theme over the last decade. Location seems to move around year to year but it's been happening a lot. Nasty AK ridge is a net + in these parts. 


I know your overall feeling toward long range models and rightfully so...what is interesting is the pretty much unanimous idea of -epo. A good sign having it show up as we get deeper into fall. I hope the other areas of HLB being shown start to show up in a regular fashion as we head into November. Get a jump start on an epic winter! Snow on Thanksgiving? We can dream....


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35 minutes ago, frd said:

December 2018 to Feb. 2019 from the JMA ............ I like    

Looks to a degree like the Euro and Ukmet Seasonals  :-) 

 

The long range guidance all lining up right now in a similar way (and a way that's supported by some analogs) has to be increasing optimism. 

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53 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 


I know your overall feeling toward long range models and rightfully so...what is interesting is the pretty much unanimous idea of -epo. A good sign having it show up as we get deeper into fall. I hope the other areas of HLB being shown start to show up in a regular fashion as we head into November. Get a jump start on an epic winter! Snow on Thanksgiving? We can dream....


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

I'm optimistic this year and definitely like what I see but as we all know... good or bad lr looks in Oct are often misleading. Very misleading... haha

Npac sstas are hinting towards potential favorable persistence high low placements. Chicken or egg argumentas to what drives what between the 2 but persistence can be real and a good indicator of predominant patterns. If by mid November the npac height and ssta patterns still look good I'll go ahead and switch to full weenie mode. 

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Here's a visualization. Cool down the pdo region around Japan to central Aleutians and leave everything else as is in the npac and it sure looks good to me. Optimal comes to mind. Including the BN region off of baja/socal... this plot is moving towards perfect npac conditions. Only loose end is cooling down the area between Japan and the Aleutians. 2 months is plenty of time. 

anomnight.10.11.2018.gif

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's what I'm talking about from another year... a very good one. Lol. We want the western side of the npac to move towards this. 02-03 success was driven by a persistant +pna more than the ao/nao. Some similarity in the eastern npac right now. Heh. 

anomnight.10.12.2002.gif

Yep...another big difference between 02 and now is the presence of much gradient in the Pac....in all of the important regions.   I see yellows and oranges in rights places but I think lack of gradient between +/-  SST anoms is also key if we want features to show up and be prominent in the right spots.  Did some reading a few weeks ago on the Walker Cell and how the gradient in the Pac during an enso event can affect the cell's circulation....not just the strength of the enso but the gradient involved. I dont know enough about the subject to comment further...so there's that.  I am curious tho as to how this plays out....

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