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Tropical Storm Chris


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8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s pretty small and fetch is a major factor in sea state generation. I would expect them to easily pass by with minimal impact. If he were a Cape Verde storm say like bill with a wind field triple the size they would. BNe in trouble 

Env. Canada warning: "Hurricane-force winds are possible for portions of the Scotian slope waters south of Nova Scotia on Thursday. Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of the storm as it tracks through the Canadian marine district." 

Why is it different for the cruise ship versus the sort of height predicted by the government mets? What does "fetch is a major factor in sea state generation" mean, please?

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xppdNHD.gif

Boomerang eye lol.

But it's hanging in there, and looks way better than Irene.

Edit: Didn't take long to get the eye back.  After a few hours of looking crap and Ryan MAU counting saying Chris peaked on twitter, it now has a healthy baseball field. Or maybe an Xmas tree.

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3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Where is the cruise ship going to be with respect to Chris?

 

The cruise left Bermuda last night and heading back home to NY by Thursday. They couldn’t go direct because they would go straight into the path of the hurricane. So they are going under it. Captain told everyone moderate seas. What is that 4-8 foot waves?

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Now it would be nice if we had a recon to sample this short lived sting-jet.  HMON and HWRF both showing it during ET transition.  GFS has it but not nearly as strong. It is accompanied by an unstable layer just above the surface and an increased pressure gradient lasting about 12hrs. It dies when it hits the abruptly cooler SSTs.

 

v1dgaCr.png

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Weakening has begun

BULLETIN
Hurricane Chris Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

...CHRIS CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 67.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

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The window for Chris to reach MH status has closed. For a while yesterday, I was convinced it would make it. Still, a very nice intensification phase Monday evening through Tuesday. A solid Category 2 isn't too shabby considering the region of development in July. As for impacts, it will be interesting to see how the ET transition completes and what (if any) effects for portions of Nova Scotia and New Foundland. Based on track and modeling, Chris may miss NS altogether and only impact NF from the weaker NW side of circulation. I certainly don't think this will be the worst they've seen recently.

 

 

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Yeah that's pretty oddly high too. That would generally reduce to a 10 m wind of about 70 kts when the nhc advisory intensity attm was only 60 kts. With the air temperature lower than sst you wouldnt expect a robust llj just above the surface. I wonder if there was some sort of isallobaric/baroclinic effect on the backside during et transition?  

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These are the rainfall and wind reports in Newfoundland. Pretty pedestrian for these parts, really. 

1. SUMMARY OF RAINFALL IN MILLIMETRES: 

GANDER INT'L AIRPORT: 76.4 
LETHBRIDGE: 76 
GANDER CLIMATE: 72.6 
BURNSIDE: 72 
TERRA NOVA: 71.4 
ST. ALBAN'S: 70.1 
APPLETON: 65.3 
BONAVISTA: 61.6 
NORTH HARBOUR: 52.6 
PORTLAND: 51.4 
BURIN: 41.7 
ST. PIERRE: 38.8 
MARYSTOWN: 38.1 
ST. LAWRENCE: 30.5 
GRAND FALLS-WINDSOR: 28.7 
WINTERLAND: 25.5 

2. SUMMARY OF PEAK WIND GUSTS IN KILOMETRES PER HOUR: 

BONAVISTA LIGHTHOUSE: 109 
CAPE PINE: 106 
GREEN ISLAND-FORTUNE BAY: 105 
BONAVISTA: 102 
POOL'S ISLAND: 102 
FERRYLAND: 97 
PORT DE GRAVE: 96 
TOPSAIL BLUFF: 96 
DEER PARK: 95 
ST. JOHN'S INT'L AIRPORT: 91 
CAPE RACE: 87 
ST. PIERRE: 80
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