bobbutts Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The buoys off Long Island have been hitting 80 each afternoon. Unfortunately if you like canes in the north east that’s just surface water. So it will quickly mix with cooler water with the arrival of forerunner swells. Our best bet at a major has and always will be a track just like 38. A big Cape Verde cat 4/5 NE of the Bahamas that gets sling shot straight north between two highs so weakening is minimal. You need that straight north track to avoid the OBX. Any land interaction will cause the core to fall apart. You really need that intact core to produce major winds as far north as us. The strongest winds during 38 on LI only lasted about 30 minutes so that’s right in line with what you would expect with an intact core. I looked and found that forward speed was probably somewhere between 45-70 mph, so assuming a direct hit, a 30 minute duration for core works out to 22-35 Mi diameter core. Really tight for this latitude if that's anywhere near accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 tropics in the Atlantic Ocean are heating up with a high impact tropical wave developing Northeast of the South American Continent. Nearing 8-10N: 49-50.0W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 12 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: tropics in the Atlantic Ocean are heating up with a high impact tropical wave developing Northeast of the South American Continent. Nearing 8-10N: 49-50.0W High impact? Looks like sh$%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 It is getting better Hoth, look at the disturbance NNE of Puerto Rico and SSE of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 That doesn't look very "high impact" either. Atlantic is pretty hostile for the time being. But hey, maybe we work our way through the whole name list with these silly subtropical systems in the central Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 On 8/16/2018 at 10:32 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is getting better Hoth, look at the disturbance NNE of Puerto Rico and SSE of Bermuda. what disturbance? there is nothing remotely worth looking at there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Crap TS season in the tropics and a crap summer in WSNE. Just nothing but big piles of crap all around. Can’t turn the page fast enough. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 On 8/16/2018 at 11:24 AM, Hoth said: That doesn't look very "high impact" either. Atlantic is pretty hostile for the time being. But hey, maybe we work our way through the whole name list with these silly subtropical systems in the central Atlantic. Would those things even been given a name 20 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Would those things even been given a name 20 years ago? I wouldn't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 2 hours ago, tamarack said: Would those things even been given a name 20 years ago? No. It's why I caution those when viewing graphics and charts about tropical cyclone and tornado numbers from 20 yrs ago and beyond. It's almost apples to oranges compared to now, especially tornadoes. The tools we have now for tropical cyclones and helping us decide when to call one a TS vs a STS are far and away more useful now then even 10-15 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: No. It's why I caution those when viewing graphics and charts about tropical cyclone and tornado numbers from 20 yrs ago and beyond. It's almost apples to oranges compared to now, especially tornadoes. The tools we have now for tropical cyclones and helping us decide when to call one a TS vs a STS are far and away more useful now then even 10-15 yrs ago. TC detection has been pretty solid for a while though, even if it hasn't always been applied consistently. Check out how many non-developing TDs over open water are listed in HURDAT from the late '70s through the early '80s, when the NHC was still trying to get a feel for satellite-based science... I think '75 had no fewer than 14 or 15. Classification techniques are more refined now, so with current methods most of the TDs would probably be dropped and a few would be confirmed for gale-force, whether subtrop or fully tropical. But at least we have the satellite imagery to ensure that no super obvious systems were missed over the last 45 years or so. Maybe just a handful of marginal slopgyres that scatterometry etc. have helped over the hump in the modern era. I believe in the literature, TC undercount is generally considered inconsequential since the 60s, contrasting with tornado reporting which will probably just become more comprehensive indefinitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: TC detection has been pretty solid for a while though, even if it hasn't always been applied consistently. Check out how many non-developing TDs over open water are listed in HURDAT from the late '70s through the early '80s, when the NHC was still trying to get a feel for satellite-based science... I think '75 had no fewer than 14 or 15. Classification techniques are more refined now, so with current methods most of the TDs would probably be dropped and a few would be confirmed for gale-force, whether subtrop or fully tropical. But at least we have the satellite imagery to ensure that no super obvious systems were missed over the last 45 years or so. Maybe just a handful of marginal slopgyres that scatterometry etc. have helped over the hump in the modern era. I believe in the literature, TC undercount is generally considered inconsequential since the 60s, contrasting with tornado reporting which will probably just become more comprehensive indefinitely. We have the tools now that we did not have that allows us to count storms in the middle of nowhere as tropical or sun tropical. It defintely has helped us. Before we would need to rely on ship reports but now..:no need. It’s not like it would boost the counts by 7 or 8 storms, but it’s possible at least 1-2 in a season (maybe some never) would be missed. That’s still significant. This is from pros that I have talked to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 27, 2018 Author Share Posted August 27, 2018 The Atlantic Ocean has finally awakened, two very good looking tropical waves off the coast of west Africa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2018 Share Posted August 27, 2018 Shear looks like crap and looks like there is a good amount of dry air over the Tropical Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 5 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The Atlantic Ocean has finally awakened, two very good looking tropical waves off the coast of west Africa September should be active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I wouldn't say that the Atlantic has awakened. We're heading toward the climo peak but the MDR is still pretty hostile with shear and dry air/SAL. I actually don't think the shear forecast is horrendous, but the lack of moisture is a killer. I think things will pop out there in the next two weeks, but I'm not sure the environment is awfully conducive for those waves/weak systems to traverse the Atlantic. If we're looking for action, I think we're going to have to wait for development along a stalled front or one of those waves to get closer to home. We'll see... Yeah homegrown is probably our best bet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 Euro and now the GFS coming way west with Florence.. Definitely could be a east coast threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Starting to pay a slight bit of attention to Florence way out in the East Atlantic. I assumed it was a fish storm with a recurve far, far out. Reading the discussion this Sun AM it seems like it may stay fairly week for now and they adjusted the path south and west. Looking at the Euro way out, at day 10 it has it approaching the east coast. High pressure will be north and east of the storm and no strong trough to kick her out. Maybe it will become some type of threat to the US? EDIT: Since I posted this the 12Z GFS has come out. It was way east of the Euro at 6Z. Now has come far west. Still a miss for the East Coast but much closer. Here is day 9. I put the track in for day 10. Would be a east Nova Scotia type hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Canadian is a east coast hit now!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Just now, ineedsnow said: Canadian is a east coast hit now!!! When is it not lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 The upper-level pattern looks like crap across the United Stated for any type of east coast hit. Flow looks quite zonal and rather fast. I'm sure we would see lots of weak frontal passages and s/w move through the flow. Would think maybe FL could have a shot if Florence remained at a far enough south latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: When is it not lol. Do you think there is a lot of stock in the concept of developing ridges in the central Atlantic and forcing tropical systems into the east coast? See that stated quite often when it comes to these systems which develop in the tropical Atlantic but how often does that actually happen where these ridges steer them into the east coast? I feel like all it takes is for a slight weakness in the ridge and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Do you think there is a lot of stock in the concept of developing ridges in the central Atlantic and forcing tropical systems into the east coast? See that stated quite often when it comes to these systems which develop in the tropical Atlantic but how often does that actually happen where these ridges steer them into the east coast? I feel like all it takes is for a slight weakness in the ridge and that's it. It’s rare for a storm to move in from east. Sandy comes to mind, Isabel and Hugo in a way too. Usually if they move more E-W it’s more into FL. But ridges have been over-performing so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s rare for a storm to move in from east. Sandy comes to mind, Isabel and Hugo in a way too. Usually if they move more E-W it’s more into FL. But ridges have been over-performing so there’s that. That's what I gather...a storm can move in from the east but it's highly anomalous. I just start to wonder if some people find any reason to say "the east coast needs to be on alert" or just find a reason to say the east coast will be hit. But looking at other factors...I guess shear has become a bit more favorable (though not sure what it looks like down the road) but there is still lots of dry air around in the Atlantic and even looking at some RH forecasts still lots of dry pockets around through model forecast hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 GEFS are way west of 6z. Still mostly misses but eye opening.. I think this thread is going to be bumping soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 12z EURO about to be a east coast hit out to hour 192 and heading that way. Glad I still have vacation time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z EURO about to be a east coast hit out to hour 192 and heading that way. Glad I still have vacation time left Going to be close... might recurve just offshore seeing 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 The only thing worse than tracking phantom day 10 snowstorms is day 10 TCs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The only thing worse than tracking phantom day 10 snowstorms is day 10 TCs At least this already has a name most models coming together with it also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Going to be close... might recurve just offshore seeing 216 Major just offshore at 240 about to slam the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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