SNE Tropical Weather Discussion - Hurricanes

[Hoth]

If it hits, do we see a spike in Progressive insurance policies?

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, Hoth said:

If it hits, do we see a spike in Progressive insurance policies?

Certainly an increase in insurance premiums. A neighbor had 7 trees come down on her property during one of the storms in March.  One of the trees did some damage to her home. She just received a notice of a rate increase. The other 6 trees had to be removed at a cost(not covered) of $2500. The tree service companies were gouging people.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Shocked to see how favorable the environment is in the next few days following this shear. It's basically got all the space in the world to regain strength afterwards and record warm SST's in front of her.

In the absence of extensive reanalysis, a perfunctory glance at the potential synoptics harken back to an Andrew evolution displaced further up in latitude.

I feel like its either bad in the Carolinas, or a non-starter-

We even have the whole seasonal parallel of the heretofore quiescence.... Andrew had just about dissipated, before the ridge intervened and veered it westward, through an environmental breeding ground en route to history.

[Cyclone-68]

And even if the track ends up being perfect what’s to prevent it from weakening rapidly north of Hatteras? Ala Belle in ‘76 or Gloria in ‘85? This needs to turn the coast like a bullet for anything extreme to happen up here 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In the absence of extensive reanalysis, a perfunctory glance at the potential synoptics harken back to an Andrew evolution displaced further up in latitude.

I feel like its either bad in the Carolinas, or non-starter-

I think it tickles Carolinas as you say- but after that, we need some days to work out this very unique blocking. 

[Ginx snewx]

Rut Roh

[Ginx snewx]

There is a weakness between the WAR and the GL NNE HP at 120 on the Euro, watch it

[Ginx snewx]

Through 132 yikes

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is a weakness between the WAR and the GL NNE HP at 120 on the Euro, watch it

That weakness moves off the coast at 144, now does the HP over us keep building or scoot out. Dilema

[Bostonseminole]

Euro 144 still tracking towards EC

[Ginx snewx]

156 beelining for the Carolinas

 

[Ginx snewx]

168 Landfall on the outer banks ILM area at 960 ish

[Bostonseminole]

crosses the hatteras into Middetown, NC

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

crosses the hatteras into Middetown, NC

Skirting the outbanks, curving up nnw

[Ginx snewx]

parabolic curve in the Ocean off the Delmarva at 192

 

[Whineminster]

57 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Certainly an increase in insurance premiums. A neighbor had 7 trees come down on her property during one of the storms in March.  One of the trees did some damage to her home. She just received a notice of a rate increase. The other 6 trees had to be removed at a cost(not covered) of $2500. The tree service companies were gouging people.

$2,500 to remove 6 trees isn't that bad a price really, especially if climbing or a crane were involved. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

parabolic curve in the Ocean off the Delmarva at 192

 

Comes up the coast

[Ginx snewx]

Hatteras totally raked

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Comes up the coast

huh?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Comes up the coast

Nah

[Hoth]

No way it comes up here with that high there.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nah

Actually has an ESE heading at 216, Tony be standing next to a crack head or something

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Actually has an ESE heading at 216, Tony be standing next to a crack head or something

lol. It is razor thin margin and at this lead time, anything goes. 

[Ginx snewx]

51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol. It is razor thing margin and at this lead time, anything goes. 

of course but we are doing PBP of the 12Z Euro run as it comes out not making possibility forecasts, due south at 228, loop di loop incoming?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

of course but we are doing PBP of the 12Z Euro run has it comes out not making possibility forecasts

Yes, we agree. I think Tony was referring to 168-192 ‘up the coast’ and was praying it would keep going N lol.

Anyway, what a stall haha. Why can’t we get this in Jan come on.

[dryslot]

It gets COC blocked for the Northeast.

[TalcottWx]

Like I said earlier- we know it will come close. All depends on blocking after it gets near Carolina

[Hoth]

Days and days of dews and onshore flow. Yippee!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Days and days of dews and onshore flow. Yippee!

This may usher the pattern change we been looking for though. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Many more 70+ dew days if Euro is right minus the high heat .