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SNE Tropical Weather Discussion - Hurricanes


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Just now, Diggiebot said:

And it’s not even over yet in eastern areas....although the majority of precipitation ends up on the right side which doesn’t really fit for hurricanes at our latitude 

in this case it coming sort of due north, not inland, but QPF so far out is "fantasy land" and I'm talking about #florence

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22 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah, but it's sort of a primer for Winter.. ready to jump back in, need to sharpen the skills, blah blah

Yea.

I started kind of looking at it late last night.

The latitude that it has gained so far east has me spooked.

I feel like, if anything, it will get shunted into the Carolinas by the building ridge, otherwise it will do the 'ole slide job under LI eventually.

Just a hunch....haven't looked at much.

Anything is possible, I guess...

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For a SNE hit?

24 hours...and I mean that.

Time and time again, models underestimate the westerlies in the mid latitudes even at short lead times.

True. Heck, Irene was supposed to slam into LI as a cat 2 about 36 hours out. Next thing you know it's a desiccated shell running over the OBX.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea.

I started kind of looking at it late last night.

The latitude that it has gained so far east has me spooked.

I feel like, if anything, it will get shunted into the Carolinas by the building ridge, otherwise it will do the 'ole slide job under LI eventually.

Just a hunch....haven't looked at much.

Anything is possible, I guess...

yeap, i'm with the carolina train, that blocking looks pretty strong..

 

just read recon flights will start Monday

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Felix....1995.

Yup, that is what I would favor. That building WAR will force Florence to track close to the coast. The west track makes no sense. Steering will turn her north after she hits the western fringe of the HP. It's all about the strength of blocking over Canada.

 

Would sort of look something funky like this.

at199506.gif

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Emily 93 too. That ridge is anomalous so although SNE impact not likely, it’s not a non-zero thing.

Yea, it can happen...if it looks ominous this weekend, make preliminary preps, but don't sweat until you see the white of her eye..

I think the rapid weakening maybe bad news down the coast.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Emily 93 too. That ridge is anomalous so although SNE impact not likely, it’s not a non-zero thing.

Everything about this is anomalous. But then again, the grand scheme of things, imagine the incredible amount of storms and untracked hurricanes before science and technology.

Anyway...

This is another similar type of weird track we might see. Similar to Felix. Great comparison. 

 

at199305.gif

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it can happen...if it looks ominous this weekend, make preliminary preps, but don't sweat until you see the white of her eye..

I think the rapid weakening maybe bad news down the coast.

Shocked to see how favorable the environment is in the next few days following this shear. It's basically got all the space in the world to regain strength afterwards and record warm SST's in front of her.

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