SNE Tropical Weather Discussion - Hurricanes

[yoda]

Almost looks like Florence is starting or in the middle of a recurve at 240

[ineedsnow]

Just now, yoda said:

Almost looks like Florence is starting or in the middle of a recurve at 240

Euro and Canadian in almost the same exact spot at 240

[Hoth]

Tropics suddenly looking more active. Who'd have thunk it two weeks out from peak season? 

[Hoth]

I should add that verbatim there's some solid NATL blocking at the end of the run. EPS hinted at this yesterday too. We'll keep an eye on what happens with the WPAC typhoon recurve ("Jebi" I think?), as that will probably drive the look on our end next week.

[ineedsnow]

Huge shift west on the 18z gfs almost grazes

[ROOSTA]

Tropical hope is eternal. Don't turn off interest from Florence yet, although odds would favor a split of the uprights between E.coast and Bermuda. My interests are more local re: Gordon has the "potential" to explode (presently not modeled) into something much more powerful into the Gulf of Mexico.

[Ginx snewx]

Gordon with a 49 knot gust at Port Everglades 

[Modfan]

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gordon with a 49 knot gust at Port Everglades 

80 miles north here and just some showers, main threat Palm Beach south to the keys.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gordon with a 49 knot gust at Port Everglades 

Models aren't all that enthused about strengthening, but the environment in the Gulf isn't half bad. Would not be surprised if Gordon over performs.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

I’m hearing that this new hyper-advanced model, the CMC I think they’re calling it, looks interesting for us 

[ineedsnow]

The FV3 GFS at 18z has got to be the craziest run I've  ever seen for a tropical system..

[OceanStWx]

48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

The FV3 GFS at 18z has got to be the craziest run I've  ever seen for a tropical system..

Not sold on the 180 to head back to Africa?

[Baroclinic Zone]

So how we looking?  Major threat to New England incoming?

[Hoth]

21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

So how we looking?  Major threat to New England incoming?

Start boarding up now.

[HimoorWx]

55 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

So how we looking?  Major threat to New England incoming?

I don't worry until James says it is OMINOUS!  Like in August . . . 

[butterfish55]

So how we looking?  Major threat to New England incoming?

Dawn has Awoken

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Worst TS season in a long time. What a snooze.

[ineedsnow]

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Worst TS season in a long time. What a snooze.

18z GFS was close to a SNE destroyer!

[Baroclinic Zone]

What's 1000 mi among weenies?

[ineedsnow]

0z models trended toward a east coast hit.. 

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS is 895mb just off the Carolina coast holy****. 9 days out but wow

[Hoth]

06z GFS has Florence doing a loop off the outer banks as an sub 900mb monster. This model is embarrassing. Ultimately goes on to awaken the dawn. Last night's run had an Esther style loop south of NE. Anyway, only takeaway is that the models seem to be building the ridge before Florence can escape for the time being. 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

*takes a hit of the 6z gfs at 312 hrs*

yeah... that’s the good stuff. 

[Hoth]

I also like the back end snows in the VT spine as it goes by. Nice touch GFS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

And the euro takes it into SC. 

At least finally something to track....maybe....as eps not that excited.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

54 minutes ago, Hoth said:

06z GFS has Florence doing a loop off the outer banks as an sub 900mb monster. This model is embarrassing. Ultimately goes on to awaken the dawn. Last night's run had an Esther style loop south of NE. Anyway, only takeaway is that the models seem to be building the ridge before Florence can escape for the time being. 

Pretty good track in Jan  

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And the euro takes it into SC. 

At least finally something to track....maybe....as eps not that excited.

Really? It looked to me like the ensembles largely eschewed the escape OTS. I thought that was a more menacing look for the east coast overall. Not that it matters at this long time horizon.

[Hoth]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty good track in Jan  

Sign me up! Deform heaven.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Really? It looked to me like the ensembles largely eschewed the escape OTS. I thought that was a more menacing look for the east coast overall. Not that it matters at this long time horizon.

The mean is not impressive, is what I was referring to. I haven’t looked at members, just not interested into the possibilities for another 5 days. 

[CoastalWx]

The mean will never do well with the intensity. So toss that with regards to strength. The key is to see what the members are doing. Looked to me that a good amount of members are posing a SE US threat.