Long Range Winter Speculation 2018/19

[jaxjagman]

Wish i had some of his maps ,just click the map and it will take you there

 

 

 

[John1122]

Not terrible maps at all from the NCEP on the new 90 day lead. WATE put out a story that is imo, misleading about it, saying we're going to have a warm winter.

The EC here is standard, NCEP very rarely forecasts BN for any parts of the nation. More importantly to me, the highest chance of AN is squarely in the Pac NW would should be good news for a +pna. AN high chances of precip just to out SE suggests what should be a favorable storm track for winter weather across the whole valley.

 

 

[John1122]

They also forecast  weak El Nino, as Jax showed with his charts for the Mid-Valley, it's the most favorable set up we get for BN winters.  They may not be bone chilling like last year, but they are usually those days in the 30s, lows in the upper 10s to low 20s type winter days that actually let snow happen here instead of low 20s for highs and 0 degree lows that show the storm track to the central Gulf with snow on the coasts.

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

They also forecast  weak El Nino, as Jax showed with his charts for the Mid-Valley, it's the most favorable set up we get for BN winters.  They may not be bone chilling like last year, but they are usually those days in the 30s, lows in the upper 10s to low 20s type winter days that actually let snow happen here instead of low 20s for highs and 0 degree lows that show the storm track to the central Gulf with snow on the coasts.

Would like to see a white Christmas,the Euro seasonals with the heights looks good in Dec,could also be a severe look just as well also.You guys in the East could have a great winter,i'm hoping here in our parts.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The following link is for a winter forecast for the mountains of NC, but for those of us in the east, particularly those in TRI, could be helpful:

http://booneweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf?fbclid=IwAR22AkiaseA_6KmeX5JwuatYeK38ux0RKWB4KJXgiaRV9j2XcLwwTmdmJZw

[jaxjagman]

Maybe wishcasting,but if you look at this setup with colder air in place later on, weeks ahead, this is a perfect setup for a  winter storm in the Valley.If you go back and look at the synoptics of past big storms in the Valley, you'll see quite a few storms that goes east which bring colder air wrapped around and LP develops somewhere around the Southern Plains/lower Ms Valley.No clue if it will happen but the ingredients would surely be possibly there later on.

 

[BlunderStorm]

Oh this by no means is wishcasting in my book. Wishcasting is model hugging a GFS fantasy blizzard at 300hrs and expecting it to occur in October just because the model didn't drop it immediately on the next run. (lol) I absolutely agree with your observation. We can only hope to see this a little further down the line in two months. It's always great to read your speculation and thoughts especially on the ENSO thread that are well beyond my insight and understanding. Anyway, hopefully the forum livens up soon with the change of seasons.

32 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe wishcasting,but if you look at this setup with colder air in place later on, weeks ahead, this is a perfect setup for a  winter storm in the Valley.If you go back and look at the synoptics of past big storms in the Valley, you'll see quite a few storms that goes east which bring colder air wrapped around and LP develops somewhere around the Southern Plains/lower Ms Valley.No clue if it will happen but the ingredients would surely be possibly there later on.

 

[jaxjagman]

We've also had some historic Ice storms from ElNino from this setup especially in 1994.The fact the Valley hasn't had an ice storm,a significant one should be troublesome.Is this the year,once again we just don't know.Per the Weather Channel this was the 2nd worst Ice storm since 1950.I'm once again saying this is not any forecast,just showing similarities.

 

2.) Feb. 9-13, 1994, Southern Ice Storm

The second worst ice storm in history hit the South Feb. 9-13, 1994. Extensive damage totaling $3 billion was reported in portions Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia.

1994 ice storm facts:

• Of all the states affected, Mississippi Tennessee and Alabama saw the worst impacts.
• More than 2 million lost power. A half million were still without power three days after the storm. Some residents in Mississippi were without power a month after the storm.
• More than 80,000 utility poles were pulled down by the weight of the ice.
• Downed trees and limbs caused widespread damage to homes, businesses and vehicles. Many roads were blocked as well, making travel nearly impossible in some areas.
• In Mississippi, 3.7 million acres of commercial forests were damaged severely.
• At least nine deaths related to direct or indirect impacts from the storm.

ONI

1994	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.7	1.0	1.1
1995	1.0	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	-0.2	-0.5	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0

 

 

Synoptic pic below

 

 

[jaxjagman]

But once again we've had some great snowstorms with this similar setup with lows to the east of the Valley with LP forming into the lower Ms valley Nino years,albeit this was over 50 years ago..lol.Just once again pointing out similarities in Nino years with LP's to the east and storms west in the Valley.

II. The Meteorology

The surface weather map at 0700 UTC on December 31, 1963 (Fig. 1) showed a developing low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico, with a trough extending northward from the low into the Appalachian Mountains. A broad area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. was the dominant feature over most of the eastern U.S., and this helped the flow across the Tennessee Valley turn northeasterly.

Meanwhile, the surface map twelve hours later (Fig. 2) showed the aforementioned surface low having shifted to near Florida's west coast, with a strong surface high still anchored over the northeast. Moisture continued to spread into the southeast U.S. from the frontal system.

The atmospheric sounding taken at Nashville, Tennessee (KBNA), 0000 UTC on 1 January 1964 (Fig. 3), already showed that the atmosphere was entirely below freezing, with the atmosphere nearly saturated throughout the 800-500 mb layer, and drier air in the lower levels. Precipitable water at this time was 0.48 inches, with the top of the saturation layer corresponding to -20^oC (The latter is significant because moisture introduced into air colder than -10^oC tends to be all ice, as opposed to supercooled water droplets in air that is between 0^oC and -10^oC.).

At the same time, the 500 mb analysis (Fig. 4) showed a deep, closed low having formed along the Mississippi coast. A second, weaker closed low could be seen over Arkansas. The -20^oC isotherm plunged from the southern edge of Hudson Bay southward into the Gulf of Mexico, indicating the remarkable cold air advection associated with this system.

By 0600 UTC on 1 January (Fig. 5), the surface low had turned northeastward to the Carolina coast. Obviously, the Tennessee Valley remained entirely on the cold side of this system, with moisture having spread westward to the Tennessee River and covering much of the southeast U.S.

By 1200 UTC on 1 January at BNA, the entire atmosphere below 600 mb was saturated, with the top of the saturation layer still at -13^oC (Fig. 6). Despite the saturation that had occurred in the boundary layer, precipitable water values had decreased slightly to 0.42 inches, due mainly to dry advection in the mid-levels. Thus, this time, most of the snowfall across the Tennessee Valley had already occurred, although accumulating snow was still falling at many locations (Huntsville had officially measured 11 inches of snow by 1200 UTC, and would receive an additional 6.1 inches, setting an all-time record of 17.1 inches.).

 

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/newyearsday1964snowstorm

 

ONI

1963	-0.4	-0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.9	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.3
1964	1.1	0.6	0.1	-0.3	-0.6	-0.6	-0.6	-0.7	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8

[John1122]

1963-64 was one of those legendary stretches of early winter in the Valley, 4 inches of snow fell on November 29th. December was bone chilling cold. My area had 15 inches of snow December 22nd and 23, then 8 more on December 31st. 26 inches for the month. There was a -8 degree low during the month as well that led into those snow events. 5 more fell on January 1st. So in a 10 day period two double digit snowfalls fell here. There was 10 inches of snow on the ground on Christmas day and 14 inches on the ground on New Years day. There would have been more than 14 on New Years day but it got to 58 degrees on December 26th and melted the snowpack down to 2 inches from the 10 that was on the ground on Christmas day. Another snow fell on January 12, this one 4 inches. Then it turned mild a few days later and there wasn't another significant snow until late February. 7 inches on the 28th. By March 4th it was in the lower 70s.

 

[John1122]

October 1963 was very mild as well. 80s all the way up until late October. BNA and Crossville were 4-6 degrees above normal for October. BNA was near 90 as late as October 21st.Transitioned to slightly BN for November in the area and then all the winter mentioned above happened.

[jaxjagman]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

1963-64 was one of those legendary stretches of early winter in the Valley, 4 inches of snow fell on November 29th. December was bone chilling cold. My area had 15 inches of snow December 22nd and 23, then 8 more on December 31st. 26 inches for the month. There was a -8 degree low during the month as well that led into those snow events. 5 more fell on January 1st. So in a 10 day period two double digit snowfalls fell here. There was 10 inches of snow on the ground on Christmas day and 14 inches on the ground on New Years day. There would have been more than 14 on New Years day but it got to 58 degrees on December 26th and melted the snowpack down to 2 inches from the 10 that was on the ground on Christmas day. Another snow fell on January 12, this one 4 inches. Then it turned mild a few days later and there wasn't another significant snow until late February. 7 inches on the 28th. By March 4th it was in the lower 70s.

 

That was a great winter for you

[jaxjagman]

 

[Coach B]

Great link there JAX! Good overall explanations on the major drivers. Those young men were impressive with the info. They are quite bullish for our area. 

[Carvers Gap]

I see that the most recent QBO measurement at 30mb has risen quickly to -9.91.  That now signals a probable flip to positive this winter.  Now, IMHO that is better than it doing so during winter.  If it waited and flipped during winter, that is not a good thing.  It may very well be that the driver this winter will be the ENSO state as it is most winters.  As you all know, I am a fan of the -QBO within a cohort of other indicators.  I am not a fan of a +QBO...though I would think El Niño(and whether weak or moderate) likely is the trump card this winter.  

Jax, I will try to watch your video this evening.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Totally unscientific contribution from me, so take with a boulder of salt:

I feel like in the past we've gotten into pattern ruts in the fall (November seems to be the month I used to notice this beginning when I was younger) and that is the typical pattern we have until Spring. Best description I can give is a few weeks of a pattern-------> reload and relax----------> pattern again, rinse and repeat, unless we have some major change like a stout SSW. 

With that in mind, I have to say I'm happy with the current set up for this weekend, IF this is the sort of pattern that will eventually repeat.  To be clear, I'm not trying to say there's some sort of magical storm this weekend for any of us, but the setup would be great in January/ February. Energy diving just beneath us and surface low cruising across N. FL.  The image below is a GFS sounding for Friday at 1 PM.  And look, I get it, it a GFS sounding from one operational run at 78 hrs in October, but there have been recent Januarys when what we are getting this weekend, is the best we could manage in January! Think about this too: Euro and GFS show a relax after this weekend/ early next week and don't we usually get our chances at the end of a pattern, before the relax? Is there a chance this is the type of pattern that is only now starting to set up for later on? I'd like to think so and hope so, but have no idea. 

Been wanting to ask @Carvers Gap about a comment you made last winter, so I could to maybe think about some analogues.  There was a point when NC was getting snow and we were not and you mentioned one year in the 80s (82 or 3?), where they had a really good year and then we had one on our side of the mountains the next year.  I was thinking about looking at the summer between those two years to see if there were any similarities, but can't remember the year. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Totally unscientific contribution from me, so take with a boulder of salt:

I feel like in the past we've gotten into pattern ruts in the fall (November seems to be the month I used to notice this beginning when I was younger) and that is the typical pattern we have until Spring. Best description I can give is a few weeks of a pattern-------> reload and relax----------> pattern again, rinse and repeat, unless we have some major change like a stout SSW. 

With that in mind, I have to say I'm happy with the current set up for this weekend, IF this is the sort of pattern that will eventually repeat.  To be clear, I'm not trying to say there's some sort of magical storm this weekend for any of us, but the setup would be great in January/ February. Energy diving just beneath us and surface low cruising across N. FL.  The image below is a GFS sounding for Friday at 1 PM.  And look, I get it, it a GFS sounding from one operational run at 78 hrs in October, but there have been recent Januarys when what we are getting this weekend, is the best we could manage in January! Think about this too: Euro and GFS show a relax after this weekend/ early next week and don't we usually get our chances at the end of a pattern, before the relax? Is there a chance this is the type of pattern that is only now starting to set up for later on? I'd like to think so and hope so, but have no idea. 

Been wanting to ask @Carvers Gap about a comment you made last winter, so I could to maybe think about some analogues.  There was a point when NC was getting snow and we were not and you mentioned one year in the 80s (82 or 3?), where they had a really good year and then we had one on our side of the mountains the next year.  I was thinking about looking at the summer between those two years to see if there were any similarities, but can't remember the year. 

 

Not sure about the 80s...not even sure if I remember the comment(LOL)...but there were a couple of winters maybe in the 90s where they got hammered right to Sams Gap, and we got zip in the Tri-Cities.  Could have even been the early 2000s as well...It happens pretty frequently that the east slopes get more w coastal.  That is why we like inland runners.  My favorite track is New Orleans to South Georgia to inside Hatteras.  That usually gets the job done.  Rare birds lately, though.  Very little Atlantic blocking to turn and slow storms.  

[John1122]

The ENSO state and the PDO look like they could shape up for Western blocking. Which tbh, is my favorite blocking. The NAO is nice too, but it's not the be all/end all for winter weather here. We can get it done without a -NAO. We have a lot more trouble getting it done with a -PNA. 

I'll throw this out there about the NAO/QBO. The QBO was deeply negative in winter 2015 and winter 2018. Now we had cold weather around those winters, but what we didn't have was the -NAO. The cold was Pacific driven.

 As a matter of fact, the last time the NAO was below -1 for a winter month was January 2011.  The QBO at 30mb (the measure the mets in the video) had left negative territory and was climbing into positive territory that fall into that winter. 1984 into 1985 is another year that saw it rise from negative to positive heading into winter.  When it flipped positive January 85 had a deeply negative NAO. I don't really see a strong connection between the QBO and blocking. Even when it's negative we seem to get no blocking much more than we get blocking. When it's positive blocking seems  hard to come by as well, but not much more so than when it's negative.

Looking at the best -NAO months in winter we find the following since 1979 when the QBO 30mb measurements start from CPC.

January 1979 -2.12 NAO  + QBO  

Feb 1979 -1.20 NAO + QBO 

Jan 1980 -1.38 NAO - QBO 

Jan 1982 -1.55 NAO - QBO

Feb 1983 -1.03 NAO + QBO

Jan 1985 -2.38 NAO - QBO

Feb 1985 -1 NAO + QBO

Feb 1986 -1.58 NA0  + QBO

Jan 1987 -1.85 NAO - QBO

Feb 1987 -1.27 NAO - QBO

Dec 1989 -1.15 NAO  - QBO

Dec 1995 -1.65 NAO - QBO

Dec 1996 -1.40 NAO - QBO

Jan 1997 -1.08 NAO - QBO

Dec 2009 -1.88 NAO  - QBO

Jan 2010 -1.89 NAO - QBO

Feb 2010 -2.63 NAO - QBO

Dec 2010 -1.80 NAO + QBO

Jan 2011 -1.53 NAO + QBO

So out of the 19 moderate to deeply Negative DJF months since 1979 it's a 12-7 split in favor of the -QBO. There were also 42 DJF months with a -QBO that didn't produce a NAO of more than -1 for the month. Sadly, the -NAO is just uncommon here since the  80s ended. Since 1990 we've had the NAO average more than -1 8 times in any DJF month. By contrast from 1960-1987 we had 37 DJF months total with the NAO at -1 or less on average for those months. In the 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s it happened 8 or more times each decade. I'm not sure if there's some long term pattern of -NAO vs + NAO in winter or not, if there is, I hope it doesn't stay in it's mostly + phase for another decade.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, John1122 said:

The ENSO state and the PDO look like they could shape up for Western blocking. Which tbh, is my favorite blocking. The NAO is nice too, but it's not the be all/end all for winter weather here. We can get it done without a -NAO. We have a lot more trouble getting it done with a -PNA. 

I'll throw this out there about the NAO/QBO. The QBO was deeply negative in winter 2015 and winter 2018. Now we had cold weather around those winters, but what we didn't have was the -NAO. The cold was Pacific driven.

 As a matter of fact, the last time the NAO was below -1 for a winter month was January 2011.  The QBO at 30mb (the measure the mets in the video) had left negative territory and was climbing into positive territory that fall into that winter. 1984 into 1985 is another year that saw it rise from negative to positive heading into winter.  When it flipped positive January 85 had a deeply negative NAO. I don't really see a strong connection between the QBO and blocking. Even when it's negative we seem to get no blocking much more than we get blocking. When it's positive blocking seems  hard to come by as well, but not much more so than when it's negative.

Looking at the best -NAO months in winter we find the following since 1979 when the QBO 30mb measurements start from CPC.

January 1979 -2.12 NAO  + QBO  

Feb 1979 -1.20 NAO + QBO 

Jan 1980 -1.38 NAO - QBO 

Jan 1982 -1.55 NAO - QBO

Feb 1983 -1.03 NAO + QBO

Jan 1985 -2.38 NAO - QBO

Feb 1985 -1 NAO + QBO

Feb 1986 -1.58 NA0  + QBO

Jan 1987 -1.85 NAO - QBO

Feb 1987 -1.27 NAO - QBO

Dec 1989 -1.15 NAO  - QBO

Dec 1995 -1.65 NAO - QBO

Dec 1996 -1.40 NAO - QBO

Jan 1997 -1.08 NAO - QBO

Dec 2009 -1.88 NAO  - QBO

Jan 2010 -1.89 NAO - QBO

Feb 2010 -2.63 NAO - QBO

Dec 2010 -1.80 NAO + QBO

Jan 2011 -1.53 NAO + QBO

So out of the 19 moderate to deeply Negative DJF months since 1979 it's a 12-7 split in favor of the -QBO. There were also 42 DJF months with a -QBO that didn't produce a NAO of more than -1 for the month. Sadly, the -NAO is just uncommon here since the  80s ended. Since 1990 we've had the NAO average more than -1 8 times in any DJF month. By contrast from 1960-1987 we had 37 DJF months total with the NAO at -1 or less on average for those months. In the 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s it happened 8 or more times each decade. I'm not sure if there's some long term pattern of -NAO vs + NAO in winter or not, if there is, I hope it doesn't stay in it's mostly + phase for another decade.

 

 

We will just have to continue to disagree on this one.  It is one piece to a very big puzzle, but worth noting when its phase changes.  Some very good mets use this indicator so I don't think it is junk science.  Some very good ones don't use it at all.  I used to ignore it completely, but have seen Isotherm nail a couple of winter forecasts with it as a tool within a composition of tools.  I pay attention to it because of his forecasts.  And as he noted, it can't be used by itself.  And a 12-7 split is a decent indicator in the world of chaos in my book.  I think, as others have said, the QBO in conjunction with other factors is the key.  I used the -QBO last winter, but likely will not use it as much this winter.  I think the danger of riding one indicator or disregarding one indicator altogether will bring problems as it did w Judah Cohen and snow cover in Asia. In isolation, one factor is going to fail quite often.  I do think a falling QBO(either fall or early winter) is an important factor...I think, though it is not the end-all-be-all of indicators.  Obviously, within chaos exceptions will happen.  If the QBO is negative(but rising), that can flip a pattern to warm if during late winter as is my understanding.  So it may be possible that some winters w a -QBO actually support very warm flips if the QBO is rising - even w a negative state.  The other thing that I am unsure about (as I am just learning about this feature) is that it may support other types of high latitude blocking not limited to the -NAO. Also, is the QBO a symptom of something greater or an actual driver?  However, each winter has multiple factors such as solar, the MJO, and especially the ultimate trump card - ENSO.   I think finding which factors (for each individual winter) are going to be drivers is key.  Even ENSO has its exceptions when looking at analog packages.   And I agree, the -NAO during winter is just not common right now.  That leads me to my next thoughts regarding the NAO...

The AMO has been mostly positive since around 1996.  That is a pretty close correlation to this long spat of winters without a -NAO.  (As a side note, I do think it is important to note that even though we may not have -NAO winters on average very often...severe drops or rises can indicate a winter weather event.)  So, in looking at the AMO...it also corresponds to some very warm winters.  The Atlantic and Pacific are massive drivers of weather on the planet because of the surface area that they cover and the energy that they store/absorb.  The Pacific has been a recent main driver simply because the Atlantic set-up has not been great.  If the AMO were to flip negative, that might change the conversation.  And as I have noted multiple times, the eastern Valley benefits from Atlantic blocking due to coastal storms.  We are in a "big snow" drought in NE TN and it does correspond nicely to the lack of a -NAO.  We used to get snows over 12" on a semi-regular basis.  No longer.  

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

So for this winter...here are my top factors that I am considering:

1.  The sun....With a weak solar cycle nearing its minimum, it is likely that this will play some part in our winter.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle

2.  The overall trend of recent winters for the past two decades....less snow and very warm interludes during winter IMBY.

3.  ENSO...IMHO this is THE driver this winter.  We need it to be somewhere in the weak phase, even if it is eventually heading towards moderate later during winter.

4.  QBO...It is flipping positive during fall and not winter, but it is indeed a phase change.  IMHO, I think a weak El Nino trumps this.

5.  We are due for a good winter...I think John as stated that "less than snowy" winters usually occur in pairs or threes.  I like that rule.  However, I am quick to say that past trends are not always causal.

6.  The consistently positive AMO...IMHO, this makes it very tough, though not impossible as there are exceptions, to go "above normal" for snowfall.  

7.   We are not in a drought...Last winter we had excellent temps during late December and early January, but entered into a mini-drought which is not uncommon w Nina patterns.  The winter before was predicated by the great Gatlinburg fire.  We had temp wild swings which were also common with that pattern.  This winter "should" feature at least normal precip for the eastern half of the state w things a bit shakier as one goes west in the forum area- just using Nino climo.  We have to have cold for snow, but we also have to have precip.  The Nino should provide the precip portion of the equation.   

8.  The thing that gives me pause...each year is its own analog.  As noted earlier, what was a driver one year may not be as much so during the next year.  The overall group of indicators  looks good.  There are plenty of factors in the forum's favor for snow and cold.  However, because of our latitude, we only get a small window where the atmosphere is not fighting against winter here.  If things don't "line-up" just right(blocking, weak Nino, MJO, etc), we could still miss out on what could be a great chance.  A great example again was last winter.  We had extended cold right at the holiday time frame only to see eastern NA go bone dry.  Now, Montana had record snows in places like Billings and Bozeman.  However, the West does very well with moderate-ish Nina patterns.  This may be a poor water year or them in terms of snowpack as Nino winters can bring terrible fire seasons to the northern Rockies.  Of note, Glacier did burn some just this past summer even during a good snow year.  Those are older forests and are just due to burn every 100-200 years.  Again, there are exceptions to every rule...during great snowpack years, sometimes western forests still burn.

So again, my overall ideas are pretty much unchanged.  I am going w the El Nino driving the winter pattern...  Things that could temper the cold and snow are a QBO that has flipped and that we seem to be in a recent trend of less snow(again, I do recognize that the past is not causal).  The sun may indeed wake-up fairly soon.  I do think that December will be slightly AN, Jan normal, and Feb BN regarding temps.  I can see a path to a colder December for sure...just not flipping to that idea as of yet.  As for snow, I think that is one of the toughest things to forecast at this latitude.  Other than about a 4-6 week window in January/February, it really does not want to snow at this latitude as a general rule. Will things line-up for us during that time frame...just no way to know outside of an educated guess.  If forced to guess, I would go w normal to slightly AN for snow in the eastern Valley forum areas and slightly below normal in the western half of the forum area.  At elevation, we may see a very good winter above 3,000'.  I am really beginning to like Nina patterns for the middle and western areas of the forum FTR.  I do think that we will see a maybe 2-3 really good coastal storms.  Again, no idea where those go but the Nino pattern does usually support a track near the EC vs the inland tracks of Nina winter.  

Well, that was a mega post....had some time to jot down a few things.   Hope that furthers conversation instead of ending it.  Have a great day, everyone.  And as usual, feel free to agree or disagree.  That is only way to sharpen what we know....

Addendum

9.  I do think JB mentioned something important...the source region will matter in terms of cold.  In other words, how cold will it get in those areas that supply cold?  With El Nino climo supporting BN heights(a trough) over the SE, how cold will the air be that fills that trough in the means?  For us that likely means the difference between cold rain and wintery precip.

[nrgjeff]

Excellent discussion above! You know, they could both be right. There's something we don't hear often these days. My opinion is that the QBO matters, but rate of change is more important than the value. I'm a rate-of-change fan in other areas; instability for severe (WF lifting), TNI (Nino to Nina severe), deepening low press (mid-lat snow and tropical), and maybe snow cover (or just don't use). BTW that last one, Siberian or NH snow, I strongly believe needs to be coupled with pressure anomalies - in order to discern the driver of the pattern.

Anyway I lean toward a cool yet variable winter. Main reasoning is El Nino and warm (entire) North Pacific SSTs. For a time I was worried about a stubborn SER. However I usually look at the October to November pattern more than the end of summer. Pattern tends to reset in the fall, and may last through spring depending on other factors. Winter pattern may consist of 2-3 sub-patterns. This year I see a dominant slightly BN temps regime, alternating with milder periods. The latter may feature more winter storms in the Plains, but not necessarily a big SER. Florida would be warm though. Main cool pattern should feature a reasonable storm track here. I would look for lows coming out of Texas and staying south. Sure some will cut; and, others will gin up too late like last year. However we got a shot at the right track(s) and pivot point(s).

Models have some southern sliders the next couple weeks. I do not think we are wasting the right pattern too early. One reason is that it is so early, not really using up winter time. I also figure it'll be back a couple more times.

[John1122]

Great post Carvers  but we will indeed have to disagree on the QBO. I look at it more this way, there were 54 months of -QBO during DJF for the last 38.5 years. Only 12 out of 54 saw a moderate -NAO average out for a winter month and 12 is debatable as I point out below regarding Jan 85. When you throw in the fact that it was almost equal from + QBO years, it just doesn't seem like a strong indicator to me.  So a -QBO in winter saw a 20 percent rate of -NAO coinciding with it. +QBO saw a -NAO 12 percent of the time.

As Jeff pointed out, times of change may be a factor. January 85 it flipped from - to + and in reverse, the NAO flipped from + to -.  I even list 85 as -, because technically it was at -.30, but it was + for the latter half of January and rising rapidly during that time. So it could be argued that the split was 11-7-1 on the QBO years that produced -NAO, as the QBO was neutral essentially in Jan 85. 

I'll look later and see if I can find a QBO reading for the 1950s - 1970s. Not been able to find one so far. Not really sure why the -NAO was so common before and why it became so rare over the last 28 years vs the prior 40.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Great post Carvers  but we will indeed have to disagree on the QBO. I look at it more this way, there were 54 months of -QBO during DJF for the last 38.5 years. Only 12 out of 54 saw a moderate -NAO average out for a winter month and 12 is debatable as I point out below regarding Jan 85. When you throw in the fact that it was almost equal from + QBO years, it just doesn't seem like a strong indicator to me.  So a -QBO in winter saw a 20 percent rate of -NAO coinciding with it. +QBO saw a -NAO 12 percent of the time.

As Jeff pointed out, times of change may be a factor. January 85 it flipped from - to + and in reverse, the NAO flipped from + to -.  I even list 85 as -, because technically it was at -.30, but it was + for the latter half of January and rising rapidly during that time. So it could be argued that the split was 11-7-1 on the QBO years that produced -NAO, as the QBO was neutral essentially in Jan 85. 

I'll look later and see if I can find a QBO reading for the 1950s - 1970s. Not been able to find one so far. Not really sure why the -NAO was so common before and why it became so rare over the last 28 years vs the prior 40.

Same to you.  Really good discussion in this thread, and interesting topics.  

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

Great post Carvers  but we will indeed have to disagree on the QBO. I look at it more this way, there were 54 months of -QBO during DJF for the last 38.5 years. Only 12 out of 54 saw a moderate -NAO average out for a winter month and 12 is debatable as I point out below regarding Jan 85. When you throw in the fact that it was almost equal from + QBO years, it just doesn't seem like a strong indicator to me.  So a -QBO in winter saw a 20 percent rate of -NAO coinciding with it. +QBO saw a -NAO 12 percent of the time.

As Jeff pointed out, times of change may be a factor. January 85 it flipped from - to + and in reverse, the NAO flipped from + to -.  I even list 85 as -, because technically it was at -.30, but it was + for the latter half of January and rising rapidly during that time. So it could be argued that the split was 11-7-1 on the QBO years that produced -NAO, as the QBO was neutral essentially in Jan 85. 

I'll look later and see if I can find a QBO reading for the 1950s - 1970s. Not been able to find one so far. Not really sure why the -NAO was so common before and why it became so rare over the last 28 years vs the prior 40.

Good stuff John. You would think coming up with what caused the change irt the Nao state from those early years to now could be the key to forecasting it's state. Maybe it is just a cyclical thing but, I'm thinking probably not. Even if it is cycles, what drives those? What's the catalyst ? For whatever reason, maybe it's something from the stratosphere or gw induced  .  Anyway you slice it it's hard to believe it's just by chance.

[jaxjagman]

17 hours ago, John1122 said:

Great post Carvers  but we will indeed have to disagree on the QBO. I look at it more this way, there were 54 months of -QBO during DJF for the last 38.5 years. Only 12 out of 54 saw a moderate -NAO average out for a winter month and 12 is debatable as I point out below regarding Jan 85. When you throw in the fact that it was almost equal from + QBO years, it just doesn't seem like a strong indicator to me.  So a -QBO in winter saw a 20 percent rate of -NAO coinciding with it. +QBO saw a -NAO 12 percent of the time.

As Jeff pointed out, times of change may be a factor. January 85 it flipped from - to + and in reverse, the NAO flipped from + to -.  I even list 85 as -, because technically it was at -.30, but it was + for the latter half of January and rising rapidly during that time. So it could be argued that the split was 11-7-1 on the QBO years that produced -NAO, as the QBO was neutral essentially in Jan 85. 

I'll look later and see if I can find a QBO reading for the 1950s - 1970s. Not been able to find one so far. Not really sure why the -NAO was so common before and why it became so rare over the last 28 years vs the prior 40.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[Carvers Gap]

22 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

That is it.  Thanks, Jax.  The negative phases of the QBO(30mb) correlate quite well to some of the great winters of the past and SSWs....and a few that do not.  That is what changed my mind. I have listed those (I think in last year's discussion) and am just too lazy to do it again this year.  Now, nothing is a perfect correlation, and I think it important that we don't get hung-up on just one driver.  Like I said, I think the El Nino trumps about everything this year.  Some years, the MJO is the deal.  But really, if many of those things are used in concert...we can become better at understanding the weather.  Like I said, there are some good mets who use it and some good ones who do not.  Postitive phases also correlate to some very warm winters including the two before last year when it inexplicably stayed positive for longer than normal(switches regularly).  I encourage folks to look for themselves.  Negative phases(especially when it drops), correlate to some really good winters.

[Carvers Gap]

I will make an effort to put together some great winters and correlate those to the QBO.  ‘9-10, ‘95-96 were both negative.  89-90 which features a wicked cold Dec...flipped positive and that winter went very warm after that.  Now 84-84(my favorite) featured a rise to positive...it does not fit the data set.  Those are off the top of my head.  I will try to go back and list some great winters and corresponding QBO numbers and whether rising or falling.  Again, I think it is probably unwise to view the QBO without other factors included, but I will try to give that a look anyway against my better judgement.  Isotherm’s post earlier in this thread lays out sort of how to use it and how not to.   I think the low solar vs high solar is also very important to factor into how the QBO works.  There are like four phases...low solar/+QBO, low solar/-QBO, high solar/+QBO, high solar/-QBO.   I am a big fan of it dropping in the fall.  That said, Joe D’Aleo uses a chart that shows the QBO behaving quite differently depending on the solar phase.  I will try to find it.  I may have that wrong...so let me get done jogging, and I will see if I can dig it up.   I will add again that we are likely discussing a driver that may have little influence this winter.

[Carvers Gap]

A couple of points following-up on the QBO and hopefully promoting some discussion about the AMO....

1.  QBO Discussion

• There are three combinations that have to be taken into account when dealing w the QBO:

     QBO(negative-easterly/positve-westerly and rising/falling of the index) + ENSO(Nina, neutral, Nino) + Solar(min,max)

• Here is a decent primer by Met office(UK):

     https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/atmosphere/quasi-biennial-oscillation

• I also went back on WeatherBell(screenshot credits) and dug through some articles that D'Aleo wrote during this past winter and in leading up to it.  Notice how the QBO has difference "phases" depending on the solar cycle and how it correlates to La Nina.  This doesn't even take into account El Nino.  Also notice that a -QBO has much different looks over North America depending where we are in the solar cycle.  This likely accounts for some of the discrepancies that John is seeing in some of his data.  Negative/easterly QBOs w a solar max can actually be quite warm in the East.  The QBO phases in relation to solar and in correlation to La Nina(which is why it was a nice clue last winter):

      

      

• Bottom line is that I oversimplified the description of the QBO.  This should help clear up some confusion, and maybe explain why it is important.  I should have pulled this up first instead of talking off the top of my head.  So instead of me going through individual winters(I would pull my hair out trying to list winters by QBO/Solar/ENSO), I thought this would suffice.  I also "think" it might account for some of the variation noted by John.   Not all easterly QBO winters are the same.  What I should have said (that I like as an indicator) is an easterly QBO(negative) combined w low solar min and La Nina.   Again, the QBO is in concert w other factors.  It is simply a wind reversal at a certain height near the equator which can effect the jet stream - that is likely oversimplifying again.  A physicist would have to explain the impacts on pressure and global winds.  I am not touching that with a ten foot pole.  Ha!  That said, if one looks at the westerly QBO in relation to low solar, there is still a mean trough over the eastern two thirds of NA, albeit somewhat north.
• Here are a couple of papers...

          Loon and Labitzke. (This paper talks a good bit over my head...but does discuss the relationship with the positive/westerly QBO)

          Barnston and Livezey (You can only read the abstract of this one...I have read the entire paper on WxBell, but this will at least provide the overview)

2.  AMO Discussion

• I think the AMO deserves some discussion as it may very well be linked to the -NAO or lack thereof.  Those great winters in the 70s and 80s have a negative AMO. One last screenshot w a credit to D'Aleo is an AMO graph.  It does seem that the recent timeframe where the -NAO has been least present correlates pretty well w the +AMO cycle(that has not run its course) and the +PDO cycle.  

         

Anyway, hope that helps.  Feel free to agree or refute as that is what science is...throw the idea out there and see if it can be defended or shot down.  Also feel free to build a data base w line graphs which overlay the QBO, ENSO, and solar (flux?) indices.

[John1122]

5 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Thanks Jax!

[John1122]

After looking at the more extensive data I can't find a true pattern of -NAO/QBO relationship.

1955 strong/moderate -NAO Jan/Feb'/Mar. QBO went from -9 to -5 to -1 to +1 D-M

1956 moderate/strong -NAO Feb. QBO went from +3.8 to -3.3 D-F.

1958 JFM deeping -NAO from Mod to Strong but steady +QBO the entire time

1959 J mod -NAO but steady -QBO

1960 mega -NAO Jan-Feb (oddly not nearly as - in Mar when it snowed so much) QBO was in 6th consecutive + month by Jan but was falling towards negative from it's peak.

1961 mod D -NAO QBO in it's 6th month of steady +.

1963 mod/strong -NAO JFM  QBO in a steady negative state.

1963-64 mod/strong -NAO DJF QBO in a 6 month steady + state

1965 mod -NAO  FEB, QBO changing from + to -.

1966 strong -NAO JF QBO steady -.

1967 mod -NAO J. QBO steady +.

1968 mod -NA0 F QBO steady -.

1968-69 DJF mod/strong -NAO  rapidly weakening -QBO

1970 strong -NAO J rapidly weakening +QBO

1970-71 DJ mod -NAO rapidly weakening -QBO

1975 mod -NAO FM steady -QBO

1976-77 DJF mod -NAO rapidly strengthening -QBO 

1977-78 DF mod -NAO with J being +NAO +QBO rapidly strengthening.

This is where I got to from my prior post. 

By looking at that, the NAO was - when the QBO was heading from - to +, when it was heading from +  to -, when it was steadily +, when it was steadily -, when it was gaining strength both towards + and -.

There was a longish stretch from the late 80s to 2009 when the QBO was - for each of the relatively few -NAO months we had during that time that could lead to it looking like a stronger indicator than it is imo. The 50s-70s were prominent -NAO years for whatever reason and the state of the QBO didn't seem to matter in those years. 

As I mentioned in my prior posts, the sheer volume of deeply -QBO months that don't result in a -NAO makes me skeptical about it's connection to the NAO.

 

 

 

[John1122]

Just saw Carver's post further explaining the QBO. Thanks Carver!