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Baroclinic Zone

July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

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The weekend appears split to me... with better heat potential Sunday, much less Saturday.

In fact, those two days may end up being rather polarized in the synoptic sense. With vestigial near shore/western Atlantic mid level gyre ...tunneled down deeply enough in the troposphere to cause a tongue of cold 850 mb jet to wrap around the western arc ... it will greatly effect the temperature potentials from NYC to D.E.M. ...  'Cold' being a relative term of course, on Saturday.  But we discussed this a few days ago... that any 'heat wave' from the weekend onward would be predicated on the controlling influence of said gyre ..it would appear that's still the limitation. 

Sunday is interesting... the day downs with about 1 hour's worth of that lingering cool pool left in the wake of that, but by noon there is a very pronounced 7 to 9C burst in temperatures at 850 mb nosing all way to the coast.  The GFS even has a diffused warm boundary with convection firing off 18z or so... across central NE and may even dive SE if organized and sort of cause said boundary to pack slide if that happened... a contingency/digression.. 

Barring something like that, the day would end differently than it began... The Euro and GGEM both also have similar plumes of warm 850s surging in during the day...  

So anyway... Saturday should be 82 to 70 west to east across SNE ... then, Sunday would support upper 80s (and probably a dew point surge), but it's unclear how much contamination ... 

The flow is sort of less than traditionally structured for heat early next week.  At a quick eye-shot .. it's troughy looking over SE Canada, with some cyclonic curvature subtending down our way... Often enough in on-going Meteorological observation we see that that the troposphere can sometimes be 'out of phase' ...?  Ridges can be gutted and empty of meaningful lower level warm thicknesses, ...and/or, in the winter... troughs come along with less cold thickness at the same heights when there were llv arctic shots involved...etc..  This situation has some hybrid continental/SW ejected air rattling around the base of said trough ...and that still supplies some heat into the region.  Heights in the base-arc are still running 582 dm+ (a kind of atonement to a warm canvas perhaps..) so .. there's room for it.  

In the longer term... It seems either the atmosphere is grinding gears in an attempt to get eastern Canada and the N.E. U.S. locked into a perpetual dry NW flow aloft, or... the models are trying to do that. Not sure which... But, should that verify, then we may flip summer closer to normal ...with any abv more like the background GW/decimal thing.  Not sure I buy it but we'll see. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You were a doubter in 2013 too

So?   Most guidance strengthens W.A.R in the long term.  The only similarity to 2013 is March.

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup we’ve been banging that drum hard. Trough Midwest, south , humid as balls flow for us

all dews all the time, what else is new

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Just now, weathafella said:

So?   Most guidance strengthens W.A.R in the long term.  The only similarity to 2013 is March.

I beg to differ but lets see the hemisphere play out, july 13 is very similar to July 18 by the way. Huge signal for change in my eyes. but time will tell

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I beg to differ but lets see the hemisphere play out, july 13 is very similar to July 18 by the way. Huge signal for change in my eyes. but time will tell

I agree with the change but I am pretty confident that W.A.R. will have a fairly sizable influence.   One thing I am flummoxed about is winter 2018-19.   I see no signal yet.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing shows cool chilly massive change EC

nobody said cool chilly, more like a low dew normal regime with lots of NW flow, rough

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I agree with the change but I am pretty confident that W.A.R. will have a fairly sizable influence.   One thing I am flummoxed about is winter 2018-19.   I see no signal yet.

Really ...  

   ...with a clear and present CIPs modality in the ENSO toward warming in the key NINO sectors, that's no signal - interesting. 

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Can anyone help?   I cointinue to get emails anytime someone quotes me.   I turned off notifications and it’s been happening for weeks despite that.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really ...  

   ...with a clear and present CIPs modality in the ENSO toward warming in the key NINO sectors, that's no signal - interesting. 

If we go weak nino we probably have a good winter (for the snow fans) but I’m not convinced we don’t either fail at that or the opposite and go too strong.

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If we go weak nino we probably have a good winter (for the snow fans) but I’m not convinced we don’t either fail at that or the opposite and go too strong.

Meh...maybe... more than less agree with this sentiment -

Frankly (you didn't ask so I'm force feeding at the moment...) but I've always believed that the ENSO was too "weighty" in seasonal outlooks/factorization - 

A position I somewhat felt vindicated for having some years ago, when NCEP began finally admitting in their seasonal outlooks come autumns that regions from the NP-GL-OV-NE are essentially wild cards that are too prone to the vagaries of the polarward indices, which cannot be very well anticipated at extended leads... 

Ding ding ding... 

So, I don't really get into linear ENSO --> yummy or yucky winter statements too well. But that's just me :) 

When I just eye-ball the data though ... I see our better winters (in terms of action - not speaking just snow cocaine emotions here...) "tend" (that's tend ...I'm not claiming nothin')  to take place when the ENSO is > -.5 or < +.5 ...  with the AO and concomitant EPO and NAO's then supplying the cold ...as the disconnected influence/modulator.

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I wish!  I’m on no notifications and I get an e-mail.  I even deleted tapatalk to no avail.

Weird. I tried saving your profile through admin-cp, but you're correct that it seems you have everything properly turned off.

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37 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I wish!  I’m on no notifications and I get an e-mail.  I even deleted tapatalk to no avail.

It's likely you toggled the "Follow" at the top of the page

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50 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's likely you toggled the "Follow" at the top of the page

Maybe likely but nope.   Not like I haven’t been doing this from day 1....

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19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe likely but nope.   Not like I haven’t been doing this from day 1....

The only thing I see in your profile when I go to edit it is something turned on called "enable status updates"....not sure what that is. Brian probably knows....maybe it has nothing to do with the emails you are getting, but I thought I'd throw it out there. I didn't touch it FWIW.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only thing I see in your profile when I go to edit it is something turned on called "enable status updates"....not sure what that is. Brian probably knows....maybe it has nothing to do with the emails you are getting, but I thought I'd throw it out there. I didn't touch it FWIW.

That's just a status update for your profile IIRC. All of his email notifications wrt posting are set to off.

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All models agree the extreme heat is situated over the west. Some of It spews east every now and then like early next week but eastern canada is relentless squashing any sustained attempt to ridge east of the Miss river. Great summer pattern. 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All models agree the extreme heat is situated over the west. Some of It spews east every now and then like early next week but eastern canada is relentless squashing any sustained attempt to ridge east of the Miss river. Great summer pattern. 

12z ECM builds a nice trough into SE Canada with sub 0C 850s over Hudson Bay towards the end of the run. Could be on track for a similar pattern as 2013 with the scorching first half of July, then cooler weather late July/August. Of course the strength of the WAR will determine how far east that cooler airmass makes it.

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