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Baroclinic Zone

July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

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Just now, dryslot said:

Strange how the night moves with autumn closing in.

Remember when we wished we were older? lol If only we could go backwards now

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9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks like a string of normal coming up. Catch some waves if you can tomorrow and Thursday 

We knew this week would be comfy, even with a one day spike. Great stretch for all.

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Next heat wave potential appears situated in the Monday thru Wednesday time frame of this next week ... the extremeness, notwithstanding. It's been flagged, though with limited enthusiasm...in the bevy of guidance for awhile.

The key will come down to the handling of that mid level circulation the models cut off from this nearer term trough as is is filling in, and/or pulling out ... immediately astride the MA/NE coast/west Atlantic over the weekend.

If that feature cuts in abundance ... we fail a heat wave (most likely)    

If it doesn't ... or is comparatively weak, the models would have to adjust hotter.

The former version .... shears the heat off as though the trough were placed their like some cosmic aegis to ward off the more significant impact of fairly important pulse of continental/SW ejected heat slated to move into the OV during this preceding weekend.  In the weaker and or non-existent block version, said pulse will end up more E and N up throughout the eastern Lakes and NE regions... (talking about the sfc mix layer/850s)

As is usually the case for this far out in time ... the models have been varying among their own trends, and wrt one another re that blocking shear axis left behind over the W. Atlantic..

The Euro's 00z run opted toward less, and right away, it corrected the +18 to +20 C at 850 ...having the plume take resident inroads well into C/E NE... again, Mon-Wed...  Not sure what the ceilings/insolation is at that time. If it's dewy rich, this/that heat pulse doesn't appear as well capped by Venusian ridging ...so, contamination could be more factored.   But, given to the surface PP angling what gradient there is on a general SW trajectory through that period, the former is probably the only limiting fact considering the time of year and climo.

Ranging to the GGEM, which not only blocks heat the whole way... it uses the residual weakness as a momentum for the establishment of a autumn like trough by the mid to end of the week.  Maybe... but not likely... 

I give it a 30% chance for making a heatwave out it for HFD ... ranging to 10% for BOS/Logan...  for the time being.    

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39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember when we wished we were older? lol If only we could go backwards now

Yeah, We were thinking with the wrong head back then.................:lol:

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Def a developing drought for most of us in SNE and CNE..not a drop 

My pond went totally dry this AM.   It's happened a couple times in the past.  During the big drought of 2015 I believe it went dry at the end of July.  Dryness very evident up here.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Loved Seger.

Ditto!

 

that was his breakout hit.

Against the wind was my anthem in my early 40s.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember when we wished we were older? lol If only we could go backwards now

It would be great to be young with the knowledge acquired with 7+ decades of living.  Unfortunately it doesn’t work that way...

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It would be great to be young with the knowledge acquired with 7+ decades of living.  Unfortunately it doesn’t work that way...

"Too soon we grow old; too late we grow smart."


My pond went totally dry this AM.   It's happened a couple times in the past.  During the big drought of 2015 I believe it went dry at the end of July.  Dryness very evident up here.

Likewise.  Local river dropping steadily, now at 134 cfs.  25th percentile ins 196, record low flow 92.  Might be close to that by early next week.

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9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

"Too soon we grow old; too late we grow smart."


My pond went totally dry this AM.   It's happened a couple times in the past.  During the big drought of 2015 I believe it went dry at the end of July.  Dryness very evident up here.

Likewise.  Local river dropping steadily, now at 134 cfs.  25th percentile ins 196, record low flow 92.  Might be close to that by early next week.

Paraphrasing Shaw, ... 'Youth is wasted on the young'

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City has requested that people refrain from outdoor water use but no ban yet. I expect that will be coming in the next week or so. Lawn is pretty much toast at this point.

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39 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ditto!

 

that was his breakout hit.

Against the wind was my anthem in my early 40s.

Saw him at the old Boston Garden in 1986.  Played for 3 hours!

His pre-hit early 70's stuff rocks as hard as anybody in the business. 

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember when we wished we were older? lol If only we could go backwards now

Love Seger. Against the Wind is one of my favorites but I think Turn the Page has the edge for me personally. 

Just had a birthday last week. I'm young, but I think I'm blessed with a little perspective. I recognize how precious time is, and that when you think you have things all figured out life tends to have other plans.

Despite moving back here from the bustle of DC, life's moving at a pace I've never experienced. This is the fastest year I've ever lived. Must be the stress of the job and trying to (finally) settle down. 

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, We were thinking with the wrong head back then.................:lol:

There's hope?

Anyway, back on topic. Gorgeous day. Love the view from my new desk. Windows open. Low 80s with minimal humidity feels great. 

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Always thought that Seger was much more of the "blue collar" rocker than Springsteen, though I like him too.  Somewhat strangely, my favorite Seger song is from later in his career.

 

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57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Love Seger. Against the Wind is one of my favorites but I think Turn the Page has the edge for me personally. 

Just had a birthday last week. I'm young, but I think I'm blessed with a little perspective. I recognize how precious time is, and that when you think you have things all figured out life tends to have other plans.

Despite moving back here from the bustle of DC, life's moving at a pace I've never experienced. This is the fastest year I've ever lived. Must be the stress of the job and trying to (finally) settle down. 

There's hope?

Anyway, back on topic. Gorgeous day. Love the view from my new desk. Windows open. Low 80s with minimal humidity feels great. 

John Lennon famously coined the expression:  'Life is what happens while you're busy making plans'

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59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Love Seger. Against the Wind is one of my favorites but I think Turn the Page has the edge for me personally. 

Just had a birthday last week. I'm young, but I think I'm blessed with a little perspective. I recognize how precious time is, and that when you think you have things all figured out life tends to have other plans.

Despite moving back here from the bustle of DC, life's moving at a pace I've never experienced. This is the fastest year I've ever lived. Must be the stress of the job and trying to (finally) settle down. 

There's hope?

Anyway, back on topic. Gorgeous day. Love the view from my new desk. Windows open. Low 80s with minimal humidity feels great. 

Ha, Went out in the warehouse about 5 mins ago and Hollywood Nights is playing on the radio.................:lol:

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

73/50 at MVL with a breeze and bluebird skies.

69F up here at the mountain, almost fall-like after the heat.

Same temp here, 73/50 with all of the above

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5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

working and practicing..... ain't it funny how the night moves when you don't have as much to lose.

 

 

Ah Misquamicut Beach nights in the mid 70's......

Who wants to brave those bronzed beauties

lying in the sun

with their long soft hair falling

flying as they run.

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I met my wife in 1992 and this 1991 song spoke to me.  An experienced adult finally finding what was missing for a lifetime.  Still going strong.

 

 

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Always thought that Seger was much more of the "blue collar" rocker than Springsteen, though I like him too.  Somewhat strangely, my favorite Seger song is from later in his career.

 

Geezus that lady is hot 

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Geezus that lady is hot 

Ladies that beautiful don't even enter my dreams. My brain is too perniciously realistic to let me have that much fun. At best I get Debra from Accounting for an "audit."  

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39 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Ladies that beautiful don't even enter my dreams. My brain is too perniciously realistic to let me have that much fun. At best I get Debra from Accounting for an "audit."  

Better then "Jake" from State Farm.

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Nice running into Greenfield Hippy at the People’s Pint. Great food, and really good beer (Thank Chris! You really didn’t have to. I tipped well and bought some take home treats).  

Ran into a few stray showers on the ride home.  Unexpected.  

Like Tip said, chance of a heat wave next week, but a lot could screw that’s up.

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