July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

[HimoorWx]

Wife just texted and said they lost power briefly in Randolph.  Crazy wind and deluge there.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

Nice cell just S of Blue Hill in the Canton/Stoughton area

Ended up with a whole lot of meh. 

 

[HimoorWx]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

Nice cell just S of Blue Hill in the Canton/Stoughton area

Looks like that is right over my house!

[TalcottWx]

Is it winter yet? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

0.43" in 13 min.

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

I think August 1988 has it beat for "thickness" (Thanks, Tip) and dews.  For the 2 weeks 8/2-15, Boston averaged 92/74, which was 10° AN for the period.  A July/August day at+10 is hot; 2 weeks of that much departure is incredible.  (In midsummer.  In January, just another thaw.)  I don't have SNE dews, but PWM's reached 77, their highest ever recorded, on either the 4th or 5th, and 11-12 wasn't much lower.

I think NNE took the cake in this one.  

It was hot, with yesterday 1° from just my 2nd 90+ in 12 years, but overall Maine's share of the heat seemed less anomalous than farther west.

Aug 1988 and then more recently 2001 were more impressive for BOS than this current stretch for dewpoints (and had the heat to match too)...both were regularly putting up 76-79F dewpoints. BOS maxed out at 76F for one hour in this current stretch. Definitely very muggy, but empirically it just doesn't stand up to those other two.

 

Before people get all bent out of shape, I had already called this stretch very impressive...probably our best since 2010 (though July 2013 may have a case to be made)...but I feel the need to put it into context when anyone claims that it was some sort of historical record-breaking airmass in SNE. It wasn't. You would have to go up into NNE (and west of your location) before we start talking in those terms with empirical evidence to support it.

[HimoorWx]

Wife reports 0.87 so far in the gauge and still coming down.  Temp down to 71.

[powderfreak]

Man does it feel refreshing out.

75/58 now with gusty NW winds.

BTV is down to a 55F dew and gusting 30mph the past two hours.

We've seen a 15F dew drop in the past 2-3 hours.  The "real feel" difference between low-70s and dews in the 50s is incredible.  I think that makes a lot more difference than actual ambient temperatures.

[powderfreak]

MSS down to 70/52 in N.NY... so it's coming. 

Tonight should get into the 40s here.  Will be excellent.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HimoorWx said:

Wife reports 0.87 so far in the gauge and still coming down.  Temp down to 71.

Nice.  That was a nasty line with some even crazier embedded elements.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Dews are in the 50s Monday on all models. Still thinking next week is worse than this past week?

Next week looks humid overall yes

[TalcottWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week looks humid overall yes

He asked you if you thought it would be worse than this week. 

[Great Snow 1717]

13 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Is it winter yet? 

My exact sentiments. 

[HimoorWx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nice.  That was a nasty line with some even crazier embedded elements.

We're about 1.5 miles south of 128 and less than a mile east of 24.  On radar that area looked like ground zero.

[CoastalWx]

Wife said close LTG and cable out now. My son is in his glory.

[TalcottWx]

Very impressive lightning for the south shore. Ended up with continuous rumbles, strikes at work. Rain totals won't be very impressive here. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Ended up with a whole lot of meh. 

 

 

18 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Is it winter yet? 

Won’t be any different. 

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Won’t be any different. 

At least we've been averaging a blizz warning per winter

[Ginx snewx]

.34 meh

[Ginx snewx]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Aug 1988 and then more recently 2001 were more impressive for BOS than this current stretch for dewpoints (and had the heat to match too)...both were regularly putting up 76-79F dewpoints. BOS maxed out at 76F for one hour in this current stretch. Definitely very muggy, but empirically it just doesn't stand up to those other two.

 

Before people get all bent out of shape, I had already called this stretch very impressive...probably our best since 2010 (though July 2013 may have a case to be made)...but I feel the need to put it into context when anyone claims that it was some sort of historical record-breaking airmass in SNE. It wasn't. You would have to go up into NNE (and west of your location) before we start talking in those terms with empirical evidence to support it.

In 2016 NYC broke their DP record of 180 hrs over 70

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

At least we've been averaging a blizz warning per winter

They seem to be handing those out like Pez candies in recent years...

Not sure if that is necessitated out of an uptick in actual frequency/veracious need for them,  ... or if there's just a change in the culture/assessment practice.  Either way, there is definitely way way more of those issued compared to the first half of my life. 

To be fair ... I grew up in part during those infamous dearth years of the 1980s. That may account to perceived increases when comparing winters.    Ironically, there were a couple of busted Blizzard watches in the mid to late 1980s.  By and large, getting 5" in a single dose between ... oh, 1982 and 1992 was like negotiating a Mid East peace treaty out of the models.  I remember, at long last, getting 11" around Thanks Giving, 1989 ... prior to that? Maybe 10" in a positive bust one February afternoon in either '86 or '87.  Those were like monolithic snow statues for that era.  Later onward through rhe 1990s we began getting some huge hits ... Not so much from single events (though there were some good ones!), Rather, nickle and dimer trophy winters.  But even then, winter storm warnings rarely if ever contained Blizzard.  Blizzard warnings started flying like floats at the Macy Day parade during the 2000's...particularly, since 2010 out amid the Plains, Lakes, and up and down the EC

I know that I verified blizzard conditions (three hours or more of < 1/4 mi vi with substantive blowing action) on a handful of occasions in that time, so it may not be really a question of whether it was really warranted - more so...why

[powderfreak]

Here it comes... dry air.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

0.77" and counting since 12:15.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not saying this to you - per se, Tam' just some morning arm-chair QB'ing

And of course I'm doing the same, in response to some obvious hyperbole.  (Though it's worth adding that for some VT/NY/PQ points, it wasn't hyperbole, as per the info posted by PF.)

Insane number of rabbits and chipmunks in my neighborhood right now.  I expect the population of hawks, owls, foxes, fishers, coyotes, etc. to get a nice bump.

Lots of available food.

Populations rise/fall in cycles, but having a May with no 4-day cutoffs featuring 47° misery mist saved a lot of little critter lives.  That kind of wx is really tough on the newly born/hatched ; some entire grouse chick populations have been decimated by such events (mainly from pneumonia) and I'm sure the little furballs are nearly as susceptible.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They seem to be handing those out like Pez candies in recent years...

Not sure if that is necessitated out of an uptick in actual frequency/veracious need for them,  ... or if there's just a change in the culture/assessment practice.  Either way, there is definitely way way more of those issued compared to the first half of my life. 

To be fair ... I grew up in part during those infamous dearth years of 1980s. That may account to perceived increases when comparing winters.    Ironically, there were a couple of busted Blizzard watches in the mid to late 1980s.  By and large, getting 5" in a single dose between ... oh, 1982 and 1992 was like negotiating a Mid East peace treaty out of the models.  I remember, at long last, getting 11" around Thanks Giving, 1989 ... prior to that? Maybe 10" in a positive bust one February afternoon in either '86 or '87.  Those were like monolithic snow statues for that era.  Later onward through rhe 1990s we began getting some huge hits ... Not so much from single events (though there were some good ones!), Rather, nickle and dimer trophy winters.  But even then, winter storm warnings rarely if ever contained Blizzard.  Blizzards started happening like floats at the Macy Day parade during the 2000's...particularly, since 2010 out amid the Plains, Lakes, and up and down the EC

I know that I verified blizzard conditions (three hours or more of < 1/4 mi vi with substantive blowing action) on a handful of occasions in that time, so it may not be really a question of whether it was really warranted - more so...why

Oh the frequency of big New England snowstorms seems to be way up.  I remember Ray (40/70) was on these forums for years before getting a biggie as he titled the Boxing Day 2010 thread as such.  Like 2005-2010 didn't have much like that...and even though Boxing Day kind of failed, Jan 2011 did not.  

It seems like if we go a winter now without someone pulling a 30-spot (be it coastal zone or more back in ALY CWA), it's a dud of a winter.  Think of the number of major winter storms with 18"+ over some sizeable areas and it seems like it happens all the time after 2010.  

Of course you get a 11-12 or 15-16 type winter thrown in but the other years all have a couple big ones it seems.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

0.77" and counting since 12:15.

0.92" 

[HimoorWx]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

0.92" 

Last report from home at about 12:30 was 1.06 with rain still falling.  Lawn and crops will be happy!

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh the frequency of big New England snowstorms seems to be way up.  I remember Ray (40/70) was on these forums for years before getting a biggie as he titled the Boxing Day 2010 thread as such.  Like 2005-2010 didn't have much like that...and even though Boxing Day kind of failed, Jan 2011 did not.  

It seems like if we go a winter now without someone pulling a 30-spot (be it coastal zone or more back in ALY CWA), it's a dud of a winter.  Think of the number of major winter storms with 18"+ over some sizeable areas and it seems like it happens all the time after 2010.  

Of course you get a 11-12 or 15-16 type winter thrown in but the other years all have a couple big ones it seems.

There's definitely a conditionalizing psycho-babbleness to it...  That "30 or bust" motif has been sort of instilled over repeating years of it.   Not a fault ... it's human. 

It's a tedious look-up/research, but ... I'm sure NCDC probably has the statistical layout of various advisory and/or warnings that have been issues... Or NWS proper perhaps. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh the frequency of big New England snowstorms seems to be way up.  I remember Ray (40/70) was on these forums for years before getting a biggie as he titled the Boxing Day 2010 thread as such.  Like 2005-2010 didn't have much like that...and even though Boxing Day kind of failed, Jan 2011 did not.  

It seems like if we go a winter now without someone pulling a 30-spot (be it coastal zone or more back in ALY CWA), it's a dud of a winter.  Think of the number of major winter storms with 18"+ over some sizeable areas and it seems like it happens all the time after 2010.  

Of course you get a 11-12 or 15-16 type winter thrown in but the other years all have a couple big ones it seems.

Even '11-'12 had the October storm...we've def been on a ridiculous streak of higher end storms since 2011. It will regress back the other way at some point. Hopefully not for another decade though, lol.

[tamarack]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They seem to be handing those out like Pez candies in recent years...

Not sure if that is necessitated out of an uptick in actual frequency/veracious need for them,  ... or if there's just a change in the culture/assessment practice.  Either way, there is definitely way way more of those issued compared to the first half of my life. 

To be fair ... I grew up in part during those infamous dearth years of the 1980s. That may account to perceived increases when comparing winters.    Ironically, there were a couple of busted Blizzard watches in the mid to late 1980s.  By and large, getting 5" in a single dose between ... oh, 1982 and 1992 was like negotiating a Mid East peace treaty out of the models.  I remember, at long last, getting 11" around Thanks Giving, 1989 ... prior to that? Maybe 10" in a positive bust one February afternoon in either '86 or '87.  Those were like monolithic snow statues for that era.  Later onward through rhe 1990s we began getting some huge hits ... Not so much from single events (though there were some good ones!), Rather, nickle and dimer trophy winters.  But even then, winter storm warnings rarely if ever contained Blizzard.  Blizzards warnings started flying like floats at the Macy Day parade during the 2000's...particularly, since 2010 out amid the Plains, Lakes, and up and down the EC

I know that I verified blizzard conditions (three hours or more of < 1/4 mi vi with substantive blowing action) on a handful of occasions in that time, so it may not be really a question of whether it was really warranted - more so...why

How long ago was the temperature facet dropped from blizz criteria?  I've had just 4 qualifiers in my 20 winters here - 12/6-7/03, 12/21-22/08, 1/27-28/15, and 3/14-15/17.  If the below-20 requirement were still in effect, only the middle 2 would've fit, though 03 was close.

Edit:  In my experience, big snowstorms have come in bunches, probably not an oddity in a stochastic universe.  Of the 9 NNJ storms 18"+ that I experienced from 1950 thru my move to BGR in 1/1973, 7 came in less than 5 years, 3/56 thru 2/61.  In 9.7 Ft. Kent winters, we had 7 snows taller than 15", and 5 came from 3/81 thru 3/84.  At my current location there was one 15" event (15.1 on 4/1-2/11) between 2/09 and 1/15, and we've now had 5 such storms in the past 2 winters.  Still awaiting a 30-incher, however.