July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We started back to the brew pub when the boy was 6 weeks.   Now that he is 7 he is embarrassed to go there because everybody knows his name. 

Hey how about that, we brought him out to Bissell Brothers at 6 weeks as well. If I'm going to have weekdays off, I might as well use it to avoid lines at the breweries.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hey how about that, we brought him out to Bissell Brothers at 6 weeks as well. If I'm going to have weekdays off, I might as well use it to avoid lines at the breweries.

  

 

I was stay at home Daddy for a year after mom went back to work in 6 months (she had the better job)  I would have a Pint he would have a yogurt and everybody was happy.  I eventually became their sales and distribution manager. Lol. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The radar for WNE may as well be a matrix time loop this week.   Every time I look, moderate to heavy rain is training up the valley. 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The radar for WNE may as well be a matrix time loop this week.   Every time I look, moderate to heavy rain is training up the valley. 

HRRR really wants to transition the focus to the stuff off Long Island from here on out. But the HRRR is also looking a little hot compared to actual radar returns.

[OceanStWx]

BOX with a 2 am tornado.

TDS just about on top of Route 146. 

[OceanStWx]

TDS was like 4000 ft high too.

[OceanStWx]

Maybe TDS #2 near Upton on Route 140.

[NW-BOS WX]

Does it look to be weakening? 

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, NW-BOS WX said:

Does it look to be weakening? 

Yes, but it is still weakly rotating. And another cell looking to be developing SE of the last one near Franklin.

[Sugarloaf1989]

0.95" here in the last 24 hours and it's overcast.

[Modfan]

I saw a post from Upton Ma about damage in the West Upton area, damage to trees and homes; not sure if this is related to the Tornado warning early this am

 

"Northbridge and Hopedale fire depts assisting Upton crews searching neighborhoods and homes for damage. Some neighborhoods inaccessible due to trees and lines down"

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Modfan said:

I saw a post from Upton Ma about damage in the West Upton area, damage to trees and homes; not sure if this is related to the Tornado warning early this am

"Northbridge and Hopedale fire depts assisting Upton crews searching neighborhoods and homes for damage. Some neighborhoods inaccessible due to trees and lines down"

I'm going to say with almost certainty that it is tornado damage. 

The TDS-like signature was collocated with the velocity couplet and moved with the feature, so more likely than not it was a TDS and not a false positive.

[Damage In Tolland]

NECN is there live. They said it’s only a handful of trees and a deck ripped off a home. So it was one tiny neighborhood 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

NECN is there live. They said it’s only a handful of trees and a deck ripped off a home. So it was one tiny neighborhood 

It wouldn't be one tiny neighborhood if it was your backyard. It would be near EF2. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It wouldn't be one tiny neighborhood if it was your backyard. It would be near EF2. 

Looks meh. EF0

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks meh. EF0

Could probably push it to EF1 with the failure of the porch roof, but overall a brief/weak tornado for sure.

Just isolated enough that one could call it straight line, but that would be cheating in my opinion. 

[Ginx snewx]

1.13 overnight, 5th day in a row with rain 2.16 total

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

1.13 overnight, 5th day in a row with rain 2.16 total

Geez.  Only 0.21" over 9 days for me.

[dendrite]

So much rain. Make it stop. Seeing lots of shrooms in the yard this morning. The Davis has a “storm total” of 2.47”, but I forget how many days that encompasses now. 3 or 4 I believe. 

[CT Rain]

Certainly were two tornadoes last night in Worcester County. The first one touched down near East Douglas/Whitinsville with a TDS and then the second was near Upton - also with a TDS. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Geez.  Only 0.21" over 9 days for me.

Its so interesting that the rain evaporates just to my east, wonder what causes that

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Certainly were two tornadoes last night in Worcester County. The first one touched down near East Douglas/Whitinsville with a TDS and then the second was near Upton - also with a TDS. 

Any damage in Douglas?

[HoarfrostHubb]

I had been wondering if this pattern would lead to a spin up or two.  

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So much rain. Make it stop. Seeing lots of shrooms in the yard this morning. The Davis has a “storm total” of 2.47”, but I forget how many days that encompasses now. 3 or 4 I believe. 

Not the best week up here. 

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Any damage in Douglas?

Looks like it would have been in a really rural area near Rt 16 and 146. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Could probably push it to EF1 with the failure of the porch roof, but overall a brief/weak tornado for sure.

Just isolated enough that one could call it straight line, but that would be cheating in my opinion. 

Low LCL rope...

[Modfan]

31 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Looks like it would have been in a really rural area near Rt 16 and 146. 

Douglas FD has pictures on twitter of damage; think a visit there is warranted. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Hot trend in the late mid range and extended Euro continues.

Across the board, however, the individual global numerical models appear greater than the 80th percentile in agreement when just eye-balling these synoptic evolutions.  'Talking D 5.5 through D 10...  with a (Euro) acme around D 8 and 9.   

The teleconnectors even support an eastern N/A above normal geopotential medium, ...despite the general loss of reliance from those statistics that is endemic to the summer season.  Despite, having that collocated in space and time with these operational signals should lend at least some confidence - 

The Euro is actually warmest on this 00z cycle than it has been leading this signal.. It's got pervasive +19C at 850 throughout the larger domain space of the OV/NE regions ... MA, under the NW rim of an exotic WAR ... one that is frankly situated perhaps more climate classic for transporting heat to the upper MA/NE regions, comparing either this recent Bahama transport pattern, or the heat wave back in late June.

This is a notable ridge depth (in terms of heights..), exceeding 594 dm. There have also been occasional nodes exceeding 600 dm every other run or so, embedded inside.  

These are extraordinary heights.  I cannot stress enough that this is rare that this is happening at all ... let alone, so commonly this summer.  > 594 dm was usually not 'modeled' per se, but is/was circumstantially observed in sounding launches and so forth, during heat waves in the Midwest and so forth.. I am not sure if this is some sort of improvement and/or change in general, in the models handling of dynamics, but.. even that Frankenmodel I call the "GONAPS" (GGEM + NOGAPS), has been habitually putting out modeled depictions with stratospheric tickling dome tops like this. 

I've been in this game for 25 years or so... If this is really just the natural state of affairs and the models are merely more sensitive now...thus are seeing it, so be it.  But I wonder, if not 'suspect' that we may be crossing over a threshold at the warm end of the atmospheric spectrum...where these sorts of altitudes are becoming/become the new standard.  I have read climate papers that have empirically shown that the mean global height is in fact 20 dm higher than it was at the turn of the 19th Century...

I think it carries some modest import in terms of interpretive...  I've been perplexed at times, at the surface temperatures over N/A being high ...but falling short relative to what could take place. It's almost as though 30 years ago... 588 dm took place at similar frequencies as the present 594+ ...  And, crucially .. there appears to be unusual 'gaps' between the thicknesses, versus the heights...  I mean, 594 heights, with 570 thickness... you could fit a cyclone inside that ... The difference between those two measure is that one is the outright altitude at a pressure level; the thickness is a the distance between two pressure levels ...They sound similar and in fact, are.. but, the virtual temperature term is included in the latter. So the clue is obviously right there... the moisture handling.  interesting.

 

[weathafella]

10 hours ago, Weatherexpert said:

Dendeite I did not mean that in a Daddy kink context. I was referring to a viral Facebook video I see around of a father pushing his son on a swing with a string so that he can sip his beer.

Damn-raised my kids too early!

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hot trend in the late mid range and extended Euro continues.

Across the board, however, the individual global numerical models appear greater than the 80th percentile in agreement when just eye-balling these synoptic evolutions.  'Talking D 5.5 through D 10...  with a (Euro) acme around D 8 and 9.   

The teleconnectors even support an eastern N/A above normal geopotential medium, ...despite the general loss of reliance from those statistics that is endemic to the summer season.  Despite, having that collocated in space and time with these operational signals should lend at least some confidence - 

The Euro is actually warmest on this 00z cycle than it has been leading this signal.. It's got pervasive +19C at 850 throughout the larger domain space of the OV/NE regions ... MA, under the NW rim of an exotic WAR ... one that is frankly situated perhaps more climate classic for transporting heat to the upper MA/NE regions, comparing either this recent Bahama transport pattern, or the heat wave back in late June.

This is a notable ridge depth (in terms of heights..), exceeding 594 dm. There have also been occasional nodes exceeding 600 dm every other run or so, embedded inside.  

These are extraordinary heights.  I cannot stress enough that this is rare that this is happening at all ... let alone, so commonly this summer.  > 594 dm was usually not 'modeled' per se, but is/was circumstantially observed in sounding launches and so forth, during heat waves in the Midwest and so forth.. I am not sure if this is some sort of improvement and/or change in general, in the models handling of dynamics, but.. even that Frankenmodel I call the "GONAPS" (GGEM + NOGAPS), has been habitually putting out modeled depictions with stratospheric tickling dome tops like this. 

I've been in this game for 25 years or so... If this is really just the natural state of affairs and the models are merely more sensitive now...thus are seeing it, so be it.  But I wonder, if not 'suspect' that we may be crossing over a threshold at the warm end of the atmospheric spectrum...where these sorts of altitudes are becoming/become the new standard.  I have read climate papers that have empirically shown that the mean global height is in fact 20 dm higher than it was at the turn of the 19th Century...

I think it carries some modest import in terms of interpretive...  I've been perplexed at times, at the surface temperatures over N/A being high ...but falling short relative to what could take place. It's almost as though 30 years ago... 588 dm was took place at similar frequencies as the present 594+ ... 

 

WAR tries to marry Madam Sonora?