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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I never posted about the WAR being dry with drought from it . Not once. This weekend was supposed to be wet and where has the axis of heavy rains been? Over us or west? 

Maybe you're right...too busy to look back. My rooster got too frisky with a hen and took a 2" x 1" chunk out of her skin so we're kinda scrambling to heal her up.

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53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I never posted about the WAR being dry with drought from it . Not once. This weekend was supposed to be wet and where has the axis of heavy rains been? Over us or west? 

I thought you were on the rains well west train too... you and Forky were pretty adamant about that at one point.  Ridge builds in so far west it keeps things dry.  Doesn't matter, forecasts are meant to change.  Ideas get thrown out all the time.

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Interesting how the rain is distributing.  Albany airport recorded something like .7 inches, 6 or 7 miles west in my back yard the gauge had at least an inch more than that and if you went ten miles west it was three inches or more.  If you were in one of those north-south alleys the rain was lined up in you got doused and if not you were kicking up dust. 

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3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

ORH has had 3.9” this month and has a surplus of 0.81”.     

I’m guessing (based on pool and occasional gauge readings) that I’m over 5” for the month.   

Just missed a nice thunderstorm to my west

1.80" here.  Luckily with the moist air, it's keeping things relatively green.

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30 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Given the persistence of this blocky pattern, you have to wonder about the possibility of tropical entanglements as we move forward and the season heats up a bit. 

I've mused to self and allowed on this site in the past about these Bahaman patterns and why there never seems to be a hurricane really timed with this sort of set up.

Forky mentioned 1938 may have been ... but I "think" that was different in that a closed low near the axis of the Apps did a capture scenario - in way, a bit like Sandy down to brass taxes. 

Anyway, it may simply be a numbers game; and in fact ...I lean that way.  We don't get this sort of bona fide rail service from the tropics that often.   We also don't get 'canes situated that often either.  

It's like ( Not often + even less often)/2 = a pretty fleeting chance those two would ever concurrently share contention in the same space and time..  heh. 

I suppose if that is true, one day there will be a pattern of this ilk, with Category 4 hurricane ...oh, 100 nautical miles E of Nassau turning it's eyes N like Rancor turning attention to Luke in 'Jedi -

I was reading about some mud-core studies that were done at the head of Narra. Bay in RI... Up the Chesa. down in the MA and other estuaries along the EC for that matter...that suggested catastrophic single deposition events took place....well before much of humanity ever set foot - including in some cases ...native Americans.  These could have been storm surge freak events.  They could have been been tsunamis - unknown...  both of which can happen in rare yet sufficient energies around the faux impression of quiescent Atlantic Basin.  Those are Pacific problems - right ?  

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've mused to self and allowed on this site in the past about these Bahaman patterns and why there never seems to be a hurricane really timed with this sort of set up.

Forky mentioned 1938 may have been ... but I "think" that was different in that a closed low near the axis of the Apps did a capture scenario - in way, a bit like Sandy down to brass taxes. 

Anyway, it may simply be a numbers game; and in fact ...I lean that way.  We don't get this sort of bona fide rail service from the tropics that often.   We also don't get 'canes situated that often either.  

It's like ( Not often + even less often)/2 = a pretty fleeting chance those two would ever concurrently share contention in the same space and time..  heh. 

I suppose if that is true, one day there will be a pattern of this ilk, with Category 4 hurricane ...oh, 100 nautical miles E of Nassau turning it's eyes N like Rancor turning attention to Luke in 'Jedi -

I was reading about some mud-core studies that were done at the head of Narra. Bay in RI... Up the Chesa. down in the MA and other estuaries along the EC for that matter...that suggested catastrophic single deposition events took place....well before much of humanity ever set foot - including in some cases ...native Americans.  These could have been storm surge freak events.  They could have been been tsunamis - unknown...  both of which can happen in rare yet sufficient energies around the faux impression of quiescent Atlantic Basin.  Those are Pacific problems - right ?  

Yeah I've looked at some of those sediment studies suggesting big cane hits in the pre-Columbian era. They seemed to imply that a low-end category 4 type strike is feasible in NE, albeit extremely rarely. There are some that believe the 1635 cane may have reached that threshold. Anyway, seems like we've had an unusual amount of blocked up flow this summer, and with disturbances pinwheeling around the base of the OV trough, dipping toes in the GOM or around the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge, we definitely have to keep an eye out for home-brew over the next few weeks. Not holding out much hope for CV type systems though.

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