Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 9 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Def helped fill the pool back up a bit. yes . Amazing the amount of dirt that falls out of the clouds, had to vacuum a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: Man, GFS with the wettest run yet. Lots of 8-10" totals for much of NE by the end of the run. Just a river of high PWATs for days and days. Drought cancel. Sucks, sh it weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 WAR roar thru August https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51352-july-2018-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4959821 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: WAR roar thru August https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51352-july-2018-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4959821 that map goes to july 24th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Don't see this often EPS % chance of 5 inches of rain next 15 days, near 100%, gonna be a wet ride , enjoy the mank its the only mank you got 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: WAR roar thru August https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51352-july-2018-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4959821 You’re so wierd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 I don't know about "...Thru August" and/or Kevin's transparent veil of attempted capitalization and never ending profits from a pattern type he seems to covet ... But, at least for about ~ a week (say) from mid weekend onward, those that have recently warned of WAR and it's effectiveness get the cookie this morning... Here's a bit of hyperbole I concocted in that hyrbid thread: But by and large this is just a warm blast convulsively exploding N along the coast in respond to one of the most impressive WAR tsunamis I've ever seen. I mean... jesus with closed 600 DAM heights N of Bermuda, and 594 contouring bursting west like a time-lapse of a pregnant woman's belly, that pattern is a womb for torridity.. By the way, the Euro has 19 to 20 C 850 mb thermal layering over the eastern Lakes and southern Ontario, as all this WAR stuff is established... That ups the stakes a bit as not just a huge DP thing but possibly some continental kinetically charged air getting into the mix. It's just something to keep an eye on. Could be a day in that stretch that gets the 92/77 done ... Whether that happens or not ... this looks like 85/76 to 78 for days in the 00z model blended pattern. Except I tossed the GGEM... I don't think it's tapping it's feet to the right cadence of the wind right now...with that attempt at autumn while all this is happening in every other guidance source known to have been created by man ... god I love that model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ha, ha, no thanks next week GFS! Days of rain with WNE bullseye. Couple more runs and MPM will be downplaying the qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Antifungal solution mixed in the pump sprayer for the roses - check. New Kool Stop Salmon pads in the calipers - check. Bring it on, the water table's a little low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Will have to step up the neem oil treatments over the next week or so to hold of the chances of white powdery mildew and black mold in this upcoming tropical environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't see this often EPS % chance of 5 inches of rain next 15 days, near 100%, gonna be a wet ride , enjoy the mank its the only mank you got Certainly some impressive numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Will have to step up the neem oil treatments over the next week or so to hold of the chances of white powdery mildew and black mold in this upcoming tropical environment. Have you had success with that wrt aphid control? They're sucking the life out of my avocado trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: Will have to step up the neem oil treatments over the next week or so to hold of the chances of white powdery mildew and black mold in this upcoming tropical environment. I'm going to have to get ear plugs to mute the sound of the ground soaking up the rain. Its been so dry around here, any measurable amount will be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 35 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Certainly some impressive numbers Folks in NNJ near the Pompton/Passaic/Ramapo Rivers better start moving things to higher ground. That map plus the area's flood history make for an ominous combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 48 minutes ago, dendrite said: Have you had success with that wrt aphid control? They're sucking the life out of my avocado trees. Yes, If treated and they try to feed on the plant, Once consumed they die off, I also dust treat with sevin dust as well and find dead cuke beetles lying on the leafs of the plant as it seems like i have the most problems with the cucurbits family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 31 minutes ago, tamarack said: Folks in NNJ near the Pompton/Passaic/Ramapo Rivers better start moving things to higher ground. That map plus the area's flood history make for an ominous combo. Ukie even further illustrates your point on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Keep in mind... this is not raining all the time everywhere... not in this synoptic evolution - no. This is likely to be convective training ...perhaps an initial slug with the warm frontal "fist" that is more pervasive -sure. But ...once the boundary's through ...and that kind of 'laminar' flow with unidirectional transport of Bahama type air mass kicks in... there will be bright blue tropic sky sun in between streets of training convection... Around D6 or so...if the operational run is correct, we may even see that transmute into more of a stable hot/and excessively muggy day out there ...particularly if that capping inversion associated with a pulse of continental heat does in fact break off and get absorbed into the WAR circulation like that... Got to remember, with convective rains of tropical origins... you can rack up 5" pretty quick actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Not good for sewer systems in the area. Basement backup bonanza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Will have to step up the neem oil treatments over the next week or so to hold of the chances of white powdery mildew and black mold in this upcoming tropical environment. i need to taste the cheese 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: i need to taste the cheese I love cheese both tasting and cutting if you know what I mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: I love cheese both tasting and cutting if you know what I mean.... Oh, That cheese, Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 hour ago, WintersComing said: Ukie even further illustrates your point on that. Bullseye right over the Passaic basin. Of course, the hot spot will wiggle around as the event gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Bullseye right over the Passaic basin. Of course, the hot spot will wiggle around as the event gets closer.Latest GFS also putting up some big numbers over that entire region over the next two weeks. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Flooding NENJ out would not be a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Flooding NENJ out would not be a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 There was some debate about SSTs around SNE coastal waters over the last week or two... Presently ...Boston Light/44013 is 70.7 F ... not bad for the outer Harbor waters.. Down along Montauk out to Block Island buoys now 73 F So there's an uptick trend ... not sure where these situated with respect to climo but they are on the rise. I'm thinking about the pattern next week...with a deep laminar flow through the troposphere around a massive WAR high... toting long shore gradient the whole way... I figure 76 to 77 F is pile-up plausible by the end of next week .. Say 10 days from now, that could be a balmy beach water temp across S facing coastal locals. I mean ... that's what I'm imagining... I can offset that science fiction with rain cooled this and cloud cover that... but, I don't think SST works that way when you have flow paralleling the coast all the way up from very warm sources.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There was some debate about SSTs around SNE coastal waters over the last week or two... Presently ...Boston Light/44013 is 70.7 F ... not bad for the outer Harbor waters.. Down along Montauk out to Block Island buoys now 73 F So there's an uptick trend ... not sure where these situated with respect to climo but they are on the rise. I'm thinking about the pattern next week...with a deep laminar flow through the troposphere around a massive WAR high... toting long shore gradient the whole way... I figure 76 to 77 F is pile-up plausible by the end of next week .. Say 10 days from now, that could be a balmy beach water temp across S facing coastal locals. I mean ... that's what I'm imagining... I can offset that science fiction with rain cooled this and cloud cover that... but, I don't think SST works that way when you have flow paralleling the coast all the way up from very warm sources.. I think we're about 10 or so years away from regular summertime 80F Boston Harbor water temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 If the coast gets serious wind from the Sunday system, SST warming will have to start over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I think we're about 10 or so years away from regular summertime 80F Boston Harbor water temps... Lol... 10? ... I say 30, and it's razor thin ... One NW flow day away from it being 68 again... I've always imagined a 'cane turnin corner down way and careening up right on the heels of a pattern like next week, where the shelf waters are unusually warm. I mean I've seen Montauk buoy 81 before.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, tamarack said: If the coast gets serious wind from the Sunday system, SST warming will have to start over. ? how so ... oh...I think you mean turbulence/over-turning? Mm, maybe ... but the deal on Sunday (imho) is not a "storm" per se. It's a weakly closed curvature along a fluid/viscosity differential between the low resistant jet max riding N sea-side of the relative BL drag effects over land... Some saw that and assumed it to be more than it is ... I could be wrong, and... truth be told, it is possible that something goes ahead and develops that's more important than mere inflection in the pressure contouring just to smite this idea I'm presently writing about (haha) but for now... I don't see that as a system that upwells much. In fact, it starts the warm sea surface transport engine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now