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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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N of the Pike is essentially a well-mixed boundary layer ...vertically and site to site, with an 850 mb about spot on what the adiabat would suggest at the sfc, as well... most sites are about the same at 90 / 59 or 60 this hour.  

You can see some arm waving by the trees out there, so a little bit of gradient evening the race out a bit. 

NAM came with T1 temps 30 C for tomorrow at Logan ... which is good for probably 36 C in the 2-meter should that prevail, given to low ceiling RH values during the morning into early afternoon.  

Not much convection, but a N-door boundary late afternoon... 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Of course this pales in comparison to last week.  But it illustrates how the pattern is overall warm and I would not be surprised if we rival last week again before summer is done.

Thats my call but man lots of sigs for a massive cooldown in a couple of weeks.

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Looking forward to those sweet Swells from Chris hitting R.I Wednesday

Ginxy , any guess on Size and Period (looks to me like it may peak Wednesday late nite). I’ll go with 7 feet at 11.8 seconds 

maybe waist high at dawn building to head high by dusk Wednesday. Maybe overhead sets dawn Thursday.

as usual E Mass is completely blocked outside of the Cape

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Models want to... you can see it... but they keep pulling back every third cycle or so.

The 18z GFS sees the transient ridge now, with that hybrid SW ejected mix layer for late Sunday thru next Wednesday... good for a solid heat wave in there.  Probably mid way between what we are sustaining today and tomorrow, and what happened last week in terms of extremeness... So, on the high end of seasonal but not unseasonal as far as HW's go -

The Euro had that for two day's worth of cycles but ...12z it cut it down to just a day and half out of no where and no continuity ... trying to do the GGEM autumn numskull act  - which I'm sure some in here would wantonly embrace... J/k but no, that trough in SE Canada at the end of that run is less likely in my mind.   Yet, the GGEM now has more transient ridge rolling out of the W, but despite the deep layer unidirectional westerly flow it keeps the 850 warm tongue locked west which makes less fluid mechanical sense given to no resistance...  Usually, when you're standing in the exhaust streamline out the ass end of a Pratt&Witney Jet engine, you'll experience what is actually IN that streamline... I dunno.   It explains why the NAVGEM is doing that despite it's absolute torch extended; because it's integrating that out behavior.  

So... I'm will suggest this is warm pattern overall... We are cooling back in  kind of five over two ratio for warm to cool. Curious if next week evolves hotter ...there's room in the teleconnections for it. That dip in EPO at this time of year could easily spell cooling trend west of 100 to 110 longitude... typically counterbalanced with some sort of proportional response in the other direction in the E. 

 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looking forward to those sweet Swells from Chris hitting R.I Wednesday

Ginxy , any guess on Size and Period (looks to me like it may peak Wednesday late nite). I’ll go with 7 feet at 11.8 seconds 

maybe waist high at dawn building to head high by dusk Wednesday. Maybe overhead sets dawn Thursday.

as usual E Mass is completely blocked outside of the Cape

5/12

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