AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 42 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Who would have guessed. Do you know what's going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 53 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Who would have guessed. Seems rain is a bit unnatural in your neck of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 12 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Do you know what's going on? I do. El Nino! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 27 minutes ago, yoda said: I am going to guess that the tweet from IEMBot LWX (@iembot_lwx) of ADW ASOS reporting gust of 61 kts (70.2 mph) from NE at 1301z is a large error Right you are Kenny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 I think we can just about put the nail in the coffin on the chances BWI sets a monthly record. Looks like a very impressive second-place finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Right you are Kenny. Rude. Wrong person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 49 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Rude. Wrong person It's from this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 A magical SLGT risk appears on the 1730z SPC OTLK for all of LWX CWA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 What model is the 12z HRFEv2 that LWX mentions in their afternoon AFD about severe weather potential tomorrow afternoon? Is it a CAM model? SPC has placed much of the northern half of our CWA under a slight risk for Wed as 0-6km shear of 40-45 kts combines with instability/SBCAPE of 1200-1500 to produce potential for a few severe storm. Best potential with timing of the cold front approaching from the west would be after 19Z in the west and after 21Z East of the Blue Ridge. Some issues determining how it plays out storm-wise on Wednesday will be to what extent the cloud cover can last through mid-day, the anemic mid-level lapse rate, and just how unstable it can actually get. The 12Z HRFEv2 suggests highest potential for severe storms would be across the western half of the CWA between 18-21Z...and then there is uncertainty just how unstable it will be east of the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Looks like a typo. Should be HREFv2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 3km NAM has pretty much nothing for our area through 01z Thursday. Lol. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Based on radar a lot of tropical moisture lighting up in the Deep South.....question I have is, does that make it into the area tomorrow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Cranky seems bullish for heavy rain for the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Cranky seems bullish for heavy rain for the area. He does, but I'm not seeing any model support for that whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: He does, but I'm not seeing any model support for that whatsoever. Where does that huge surge of rain go? I don’t see it disappearing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 So my forecast went from chances of thunderstorms/heavy rain every day to now just cloudy/mostly cloudy and zero mention of rain through Saturday. lol thats quite a change in one update cycle. Not had time to look at the guidance but I am guessing the Atlantic ridge iis flexing and building further west. I guess those showers and storms I see on radar just to my south are going to die before they get here. edit- Looks like there is some sort of issue with Mount Holly's local forecast products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 FW issued for CHO and Albermarle County... also for Allegheny/Mineral/Hampshire 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 T-storm with steady rain... down to the wire... I might just have a chance at the monthly record after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 1 hour ago, jewell2188 said: Where does that huge surge of rain go? I don’t see it disappearing ? Looks to me like it's starting to weaken and also is heading well east of the cities. Looks more like an Eastern Shore deal except for maybe the western edge just clipping east of 95, but appears it would only last a few minutes. I wouldn't think much would happen until the front lifts north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Some good thunder here now. Heavy rain is on the doorstep. Lets see if it can completely disintegrate lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Pouring here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Perfectly centered between areas of rain to my east and west, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Perfectly centered between areas of rain to my east and west, again. Well, the rain is unnatural! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Perfectly centered between areas of rain to my east and west, again. What rain to your west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Picked up a quick 0.45". Looks like the total for the month of July will be 7.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Culpepper to CHO being crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I do. El Nino! Unless someone can come up with a miracle talking,,, the Earth's weather is just about lite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 even this is so finely orchestrated.. control control control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 0.37”... rain has ended so it looks like I’m gonna come up short. So close :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 another fail for humanity.. everytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now