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George BM

July Discobs Thread

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If tomorrow ends up like today then time to homebrew some beer... Tonight i'm gonna crack open a Dogfish head.

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today was a bit of a bust here.  i'm not surprised.  no scientific reasoning behind this, but i just had a feeling it wouldn't do much here.  we're not great at storms after storms.  never have been, and if you think about it, it's kind of remarkable that 09/10 was one of the greatest winters ever.  it was great, but i've said this before, we don't do extreme very well here (though i understand there are differing opinions on this topic).  we do "almost" extreme pretty well, but the atmosphere is generally good at holding back at the next level stuff for whatever reason (mountains, etc.).

at this point, i'm craving a good thunderstorm.  really don't care for an all day rainer, but a nice fireworks display would be fun.

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A couple storms popped up and hit the area throughout the day. An additional 1.10 during the past 24 hours for a total of 8.60 inches during the past 3 days. 

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Got hit in Wheaton and Beltsville   with some torrential 0.5 in 15 minutes.

Question  earlier about what torrential is. When the wipers are on high speed and still really not working, that’s torrential. When your rear window looks like the car wash or a river  of water rolling down it, that’s torrential. Sheets of rain that look almost like little waves going rapidly across the highway, that’s torrential. Perfectly cleared  modern gutters being overwhelmed, that’s torrential

There are more. Please offer.

 

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We are st a special place for DC and Balt. Beats the earlier this year deluge and evokes legitimate 2006 talk although currently still inferior 

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8 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Got hit in Wheaton and Beltsville   with some torrential 0.5 in 15 minutes.

Question  earlier about what torrential is. When the wipers are on high speed and still really not working, that’s torrential. When your rear window looks like the car wash or a river  of water rolling down it, that’s torrential. Sheets of rain that look almost like little waves going rapidly across the highway, that’s torrential. Perfectly cleared  modern gutters being overwhelmed, that’s torrential

There are more. Please offer.

 

2 drops hitting the same point within a span of 4 hours.

Well, at least for here.

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Someone can check me on this, but I'm pretty sure that BWI (previously the State House) surpassed their rainiest July ever (10.65" in 1905) this evening, and is now less than 3" from its rainiest month ever (13.83" in August 1933).

That persistent plume along the western bay this afternoon and evening needs to shift east or west to give the basements in these parts a break. I'm closing in on 11" for the past 3 days.

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6 hours ago, JWilliam9830 said:

I don't live exactly in Dover, DE. Just a reference point to the nearest city. The outskirts.

Shame it's summer so you can't give us a school closing status update.  

  • Haha 2

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53 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

So much rain.

Lovin it to the MAX.

I have enjoyed 8.7 inches of fresh rain since this event started Saturday. Thats not counting the 2.3 inches I received a few days before that.

I am in heaven for a few more blessed days ---- But I know where I am gonna end up in a week or so --- dry burning HELL ON EARTH - Hell, Texas. It hit 108 degrees in Buda Texas on July 23. OUCH.

I am enjoying the cool plentiful rain while I can. It wont rain in Austin for months. It WILL burn and burn and burn though.

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For those sick of all the rain...........

I have looked at the water vapor and the radar trends.

The trough is EAST. We will have light showers overnight with no additional accumulation of rain. Streams should recede some by 9am. The Bay Area will be severely waterboarded overnight and Tuesday morning, but Prince William County will dry out some. In fact, I think the NWS is overhyping the rain forecast a bit. We wont have heavy rain for 2 days. Thats fracking ridiculous. NWS needs to quit with the marijuana pipe and tone done the rain forecasts. Put a 50 percent chance of showers tonight, 50 percent Tuesday, 40 percent chance of rain  Tuesday night and partly cloudy Wednesday and only a tenth of an inch of the rain thru Tuesday. Farther east, on the delmarva, imminent flood warnings for torrential rain are in order.

My back yard is nearly out of the woods.

Damn I'm good. I should of been a meteorologist. I'd've had Masiello taking notes. I could help him improve his tweets by at least seven orders of magnitude!

NWS always goes wayyyyy overboard because of all the marijuana smoking and because they CYA (cover your @ss).

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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0529
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 240520Z - 241120Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  HOURLY TOTALS TO 2" WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO 4" ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 11Z.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN SC, EASTERN NC, EASTERN VA,
AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WHILE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FESTER
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PA.  THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED NEAR A
WEAK DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COINCIDES WITH A
RIBBON OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.85-2.25" LIE ACROSS THE AREA PER RAP ANALYSIS FIELDS
AND 00Z SOUNDINGS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20-40 KTS
PER VAD WIND PROFILES, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE 850-400 HPA WIND.  THIS INFLOW IS PULLING IN ML CAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG; CIN ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS MINIMAL.  EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS EXISTS PER SPC MESOANALYSES, WHICH
COMBINED WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS ALIGNING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAIRLY LINEAR BANDS.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0529
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 240520Z - 241120Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  HOURLY TOTALS TO 2" WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO 4" ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 11Z.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN SC, EASTERN NC, EASTERN VA,
AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WHILE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FESTER
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PA.  THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED NEAR A
WEAK DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COINCIDES WITH A
RIBBON OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.85-2.25" LIE ACROSS THE AREA PER RAP ANALYSIS FIELDS
AND 00Z SOUNDINGS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20-40 KTS
PER VAD WIND PROFILES, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE 850-400 HPA WIND.  THIS INFLOW IS PULLING IN ML CAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG; CIN ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS MINIMAL.  EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS EXISTS PER SPC MESOANALYSES, WHICH
COMBINED WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS ALIGNING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAIRLY LINEAR BANDS.

We shall see. HOURLY totals of 2 to as much as 4 inches locally I feel is hyping this.

Couple of inches locally for the entire area of rain is rational.

HYPING multiple hours of rain rates to a couple of inches of rain per hour, let alone as much as FOUR INCHES of rain an hour for several hours is downright irresponsible. Forecast should be for localized areas to get maybe 1 -2 inches of the rain, with most communities getting perhaps a half an inch to three quarters of an inch with this area of rain, is warranted.

Less hype, a ton more rationality, is what is called for here.

Throw that pipe in the dumpster.

I am NOT buying into the hype machine. This nonsense never works on The Jebman. I will get half an inch of the rain. I am not greedy. I've enjoyed nearly 9 inches already from this system. Give tonights rain to someone else. Let THEM enjoy destructive flooding. Sometimes, I am actually GLAD I am moving out to Hell Texas.

Besides, I am sick and tired of my mom making ME slave around carrying junk out to the dumpster in the torrential rain. I'm sick of it already. Enough. I need a break. My ENTIRE frackin' wardrobe is SOAKED! No more, please. Where's the sun? Don't we ever get upper ridges with summer level temperatures around here anymore? I want 103 degrees in Dale City before I leave!

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Update: Rain elements are weakening as they move north. That is a very good thing. We really do need to dry out. I do NOT want anyone to die in a flood. Ha ha ha NWS. You were greatly mistaken about this overnight. I dont even know why you get paid! LMAO!

You guys in the NWS are dumb to put heavy rain for FOUR frackin periods for Dale City. Thirty percent chance of showers, thats fine. But the hyperbole is epic, and it ignites PANIC.

I'll try my best to hold your hand and explain to you how to do your job. ROFLMAO

Today is Tuesday. Today variably cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Some might be heavy. Dont put heavy rain on the headline. Thats hyperbole. Someone should be fired outright for that sh!t. Tonight, 50 percent chance of showers. Wednesday, mostly cloudy, 30 percent chance of a passing shower. Becoming partly cloudy with temperatures FINALLY rising to seasonable levels! Highs in the upper 80s. Some locations in central and southern Virginia may top 90 degrees.

 

Nothing but uproarious laughter at the NWS for their stupid HEAVY RAIN headline for Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Go back to met school for the next fifty years.

 

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The firehose has finally turned on here. Pouring. 0.80" in the last 30 mins.

Ended up with 1.85" in 2 hours. Heard a few rumbles of thunder.

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ended up with 1.85" in 2 hours. Heard a few rumbles of thunder.

Impressive  man!  Looks like a pretty good slug of heavy rain incoming for central Md per latest radar next hour or 2. 

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Tornado warning for the Baileys Crossroad area...looked tighter a few scans ago but yikes

 

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Picked up exactly 2 inches between yesterday and overnight. Was actually surprised the total wasn't higher because it rained really hard for various periods between 8 and 11 last night, and then it was coming down hard when I woke up this morning as well. My area must have been skipped over mostly overnight.

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