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July Discobs Thread


George BM
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5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

.96” today as of the last update, and I think 16.39” for the month. Still need another 2”

I was just going to mention that. It looks like we're done for the evening, so whatever rain they get will have to come on Monday or Tuesday. 

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3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Some of those areas NE are getting it good too. Areas around Chesapeake City are getting hammered right now. Oh...to be there...

0JHSm9n.jpg

 

 

I am in Northern Middletown. DE.  and that cell was wicked , heavy blinding rains, winds estimated at 40 mph, trees bending and was worried for a while, some cloud to ground strikes as well.   

 

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Waiting to see how Mon-Tue turns out, but at this point only 1996 (20.53") and 2003 (20.53") featured more rainfall at Martinsburg than this May-Jun-Jul period (19.12")

Those two years, along with 1942 and 1975, are the only times that MRB has gone over 50"+ for annual precipitation.  Currently at 30.75", which is 8.08" above normal through this date.

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3 hours ago, WVclimo said:

Waiting to see how Mon-Tue turns out, but at this point only 1996 (20.53") and 2003 (20.53") featured more rainfall at Martinsburg than this May-Jun-Jul period (19.12")

Those two years, along with 1942 and 1975, are the only times that MRB has gone over 50"+ for annual precipitation.  Currently at 30.75", which is 8.08" above normal through this date.

Didn't someone post that FDK has like 54 inches so far?  The differences in precip to points just east is mind-blowing.  

Of course, if you are 30", I'm probably at 20".

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Weather geeks get all fuzzy inside when phrases like the bolded are said.

Sterling ...


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid-upper level trough will dig southeastward from the Central
Plains to the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. The main vort max
associated with the trough will move northeastward from the
Tennessee Valley toward the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday. Even after the main vort max ejects toward the northeast,
a much weaker trough will be maintained to our west on Thursday and
Friday. Throughout the Tuesday through Friday time period a ridge
will hold strong to our east throughout the depth of the troposphere.

South to southwesterly flow between the trough to our west and the
ridge to our east will maintain a moist airmass overhead, with
precipitable water values running between 1.7-2.1 inches throughout
the Monday-Thursday time period. Ascent downstream of the trough to
our west will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop with
daylight heating each afternoon.

The main shortwave ejecting northeastward toward the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday could act to enhance the areal coverage activity relative
to other days. It should also act to strengthen the height gradient
between the trough to our west and the ridge to our east, resulting
in an uptick in the low-mid level wind field. With the stronger wind
field in place (around 30 kts of flow at 850 hPa, 30-40 kts of sfc-6
km shear) and around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE present, a few stronger
storm can`t be ruled Wednesday afternoon.

Given high levels of antecedent rainfall, high PW values, and the
potential for multiple rounds of rainfall through the long term
period, it appears as though flash flooding could again be a concern
during the Tuesday through Friday time frame. Thankfully, guidance
is suggesting lower precip totals compared to this past week, and
also less nocturnal shower/thunderstorm activity.

&&

Looks kind of familiar..

1435573695_bighigh.thumb.png.922f197af18c5214e505aa1f4802f8e3.png

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5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

GFS sure isn't impressed with any rain this week unless you're at the PA border

I noticed the rain chances decreased on my point and click. Heavy rain events are boring, anyway. I had enough last week. I'm ready for something different, like a hurricane or something. 

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