Stormpc Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 2.57 last night. 11.4 for the month. About 10 even for the event. I THINK the 11.4 is my highest monthly total Ive had at my house since moving there in 2011. Some PWS's to my East and North into Lake Ridge have 14-16 inches. Amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 4.5"+ yesterday 12.02" since Saturday 12.45" so far for July 37.76" YTD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 6.81" Saturday 0.82" Sunday 2.68" Monday 3.12" Tuesday 0.86 Wednesday 5 day total: 14.29" Looking at the forecast, I'm releasing the pairs of animals that I collected from the garage this morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 So far I've counted 40.12" for the year at BWI. The yearly record is 62.66" in 2003. The average rainfall for August through the end of the year is 17.32"- we would need 22.55" to beat the record, so its really not too hard (next week will probably take care of that additional 5.23" above climo we need lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Is that...SUN I see today?!?! Nah, its just some yellow alien orb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1.3" yesterday 10.41" since Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 North Point State Park area 7/21 3.9" 7/22 4.66" 7/23 2.04" 7/24 2.86" 7/25 .38" = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 06z 3km NAM has decent complex moving through 22z to 01z tomorrow evening 12z NAM soundings look decent late tomorrow afternoon into evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z 3km NAM has decent complex moving through 22z to 01z tomorrow evening 12z NAM soundings look decent late tomorrow afternoon into evening That complex is not there on the 12z NAM 3km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That complex is not there on the 12z NAM 3km We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1.03" yesterday 12.65 since Saturday. A bit of actual sunshine slipping through here in Mitchellville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 12z GFS is ugly 500mb height-wise... 591-594 DM heights around starting late next week basically through the rest of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 25 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS is ugly 500mb height-wise... 591-594 DM heights around starting late next week basically through the rest of the run Yes it is. Plenty chances for heat and humidity. After about 2 weeks, the window for mid to upper 90s starts to close by at least Mid-August as it gets harder to achieve with waning insolation each day. We are just about to the last 2-3 weeks of the dog days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 2 hours ago, yoda said: 12z GFS is ugly 500mb height-wise... 591-594 DM heights around starting late next week basically through the rest of the run Was a pipe dream to skip August without some heat, hopefully given that we are into August now, it won't be a month or more of unrelenting big heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 2 hours ago, yoda said: 12z GFS is ugly 500mb height-wise... 591-594 DM heights around starting late next week basically through the rest of the run One thing to remember is that while heights are important, ridge placement is probably even more crucial, as is the depth of the layers. For example, the Euro has ~592dm over us by days 8-10, but 850s are 15-16, which often translates to 90 plus or minus a couple. The GFS is similar, brushing us with 20C 850s by day 11/12, but if we are worried about big heat, you'd be looking at 850s well into the 20s. This seems like run of the mill dog-days heat. Of course, it'll be humid as hell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Starting Saturday morning These are my COCORAHS reports Sunday morning 7.20 Monday Morning 5.08 Tuesday morning 1.50 Wednesday morning 2.77. My 4 day total was 16.55" The heaviest 4 day stretch I can recall at my house. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Starting Saturday morning These are my COCORAHS reports Sunday morning 7.20 Monday Morning 5.08 Tuesday morning 1.50 Wednesday morning 2.77. My 4 day total was 16.55" The heaviest 4 day stretch I can recall at my house. Crushed Wes wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Does anyone know if next weeks rainy pattern will be similar to this past weeks?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 1 hour ago, jewell2188 said: Does anyone know if next weeks rainy pattern will be similar to this past weeks?? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely similar . When I look at the latest models at 500mb ...this time the ull looks to be further west centered over Missouri then drifts NNE from there by Thursday ish . This most recent system ended up in the southeast ..also ..it doesn't become nearly as negatively tilted . So maybe not quite as long lasting as a result . But with a strong west Atlantic ridge pressing west again ..I think local impacts could be similar for sure with us in the " squeeze " zone and deep gulf moisture . Next Tuesday . The war won't be denied Pwats Ninj'd by Yoda I should of gave the short version lol Latest from Sterling for next week .. Monday, dry conditions will continue early in the day, before the warm front lifts northward by early to mid afternoon. This is in response to an approaching upper level trough from the east, and a subtropical high pressure off the east coast (the Bermuda High) drifting towards the west. The combination of these two factors will allow for rich moisture to be transported into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. With plentiful moisture, paired with left ahead of the trough, showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely Monday afternoon into the evening. The upper-level trough continues to move towards the area Tuesday and Wednesday, while the Bermuda High remains anchored off the east coast. This will lead to a tightening of the gradient in the upper levels, leading to an increase in the wind field aloft. Both the Euro and GFS suggest that winds in the 850-500 hPa layer will increase to 30-40 kts during this time frame. Again, with abundant moisture and lift, scattered showers and storms will be possible both days. With a strengthening upper level wind field, this would suggest the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms each afternoon. However the smaller scale details will have to be ironed out closer to this time. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will again remain in the mid 80s across the region. Great explanation! I would assume the axis of heavier rains would be more west this go around considering the ull would be further west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 @Kmlwx 00z NAM sounding at 00z tomorrow at DCA has TOR https://mobile.twitter.com/islivingston/status/1022665871444115456/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 DCA sounding at 00z SAT from 00z 3km NAM (h/t Ian on Twitter) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 The sounding from TT shows much weaker low-level winds, so the profile doesn't look as good. Regardless, that extreme backing of the winds in the sounding from Ian (via Yoda) is the result of the model having ongoing storms locally modify the low-level wind field, as opposed to an overall regional setup for tornadoes. I think that the threat for SVR tomorrow here is fairly good, but I don't think that tornadoes are a major concern. 20 minutes ago, yoda said: DCA sounding at 00z SAT from 00z 3km NAM (h/t Ian on Twitter) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Already got a cluster of towering cumulus. Although they are falling apart as they reach a certain height, it's a good sign for severe later. 88 degrees DP 77 RH 68%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said: Already got a cluster of towering cumulus. Although they are falling apart as they reach a certain height, it's a good sign for severe later. 88 degrees DP 77 RH 68%. Where are you...Dubai? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: Where are you...Dubai? My nearest PWS. Near Goldsboro MD but i use the one from Greensboro MD... KMDGREEN11 But yes, it is like Dubai, lol. Gross and uncomfortable out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 KDOX radar finally back up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 So what's the severe level threat when Ellinwood and high risk are in? Code orange? @Kmlwx or @WxWatcher007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 yay Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 406 AM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ052>055-057-506- 271615- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0016.180727T1900Z-180728T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George- Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 406 AM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, and Stafford. * From 3 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening, with heavy rainfall rates likely. Given saturated soil from this week`s excessive rainfall, this may result in flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 I'm in for isolated spots of severe - it may look worse though given the wet ground - even 30mph winds could be pretty damaging in spots. I wonder if NWS will warn storms accordingly even if they are not meeting the official criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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