July Discobs Thread

[North Balti Zen]

So much rain.

[Jebman]

53 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

So much rain.

Lovin it to the MAX.

I have enjoyed 8.7 inches of fresh rain since this event started Saturday. Thats not counting the 2.3 inches I received a few days before that.

I am in heaven for a few more blessed days ---- But I know where I am gonna end up in a week or so --- dry burning HELL ON EARTH - Hell, Texas. It hit 108 degrees in Buda Texas on July 23. OUCH.

I am enjoying the cool plentiful rain while I can. It wont rain in Austin for months. It WILL burn and burn and burn though.

[Jebman]

For those sick of all the rain...........

I have looked at the water vapor and the radar trends.

The trough is EAST. We will have light showers overnight with no additional accumulation of rain. Streams should recede some by 9am. The Bay Area will be severely waterboarded overnight and Tuesday morning, but Prince William County will dry out some. In fact, I think the NWS is overhyping the rain forecast a bit. We wont have heavy rain for 2 days. Thats fracking ridiculous. NWS needs to quit with the marijuana pipe and tone done the rain forecasts. Put a 50 percent chance of showers tonight, 50 percent Tuesday, 40 percent chance of rain  Tuesday night and partly cloudy Wednesday and only a tenth of an inch of the rain thru Tuesday. Farther east, on the delmarva, imminent flood warnings for torrential rain are in order.

My back yard is nearly out of the woods.

Damn I'm good. I should of been a meteorologist. I'd've had Masiello taking notes. I could help him improve his tweets by at least seven orders of magnitude!

NWS always goes wayyyyy overboard because of all the marijuana smoking and because they CYA (cover your @ss).

[CAPE]

The firehose has finally turned on here. Pouring. 0.80" in the last 30 mins.

[CAPE]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0529
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 240520Z - 241120Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  HOURLY TOTALS TO 2" WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO 4" ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 11Z.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN SC, EASTERN NC, EASTERN VA,
AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WHILE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FESTER
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PA.  THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED NEAR A
WEAK DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COINCIDES WITH A
RIBBON OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.85-2.25" LIE ACROSS THE AREA PER RAP ANALYSIS FIELDS
AND 00Z SOUNDINGS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20-40 KTS
PER VAD WIND PROFILES, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE 850-400 HPA WIND.  THIS INFLOW IS PULLING IN ML CAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG; CIN ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS MINIMAL.  EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS EXISTS PER SPC MESOANALYSES, WHICH
COMBINED WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS ALIGNING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAIRLY LINEAR BANDS.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0529
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 240520Z - 241120Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  HOURLY TOTALS TO 2" WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO 4" ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 11Z.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN SC, EASTERN NC, EASTERN VA,
AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WHILE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FESTER
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PA.  THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED NEAR A
WEAK DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COINCIDES WITH A
RIBBON OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.85-2.25" LIE ACROSS THE AREA PER RAP ANALYSIS FIELDS
AND 00Z SOUNDINGS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20-40 KTS
PER VAD WIND PROFILES, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE 850-400 HPA WIND.  THIS INFLOW IS PULLING IN ML CAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG; CIN ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS MINIMAL.  EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS EXISTS PER SPC MESOANALYSES, WHICH
COMBINED WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS ALIGNING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAIRLY LINEAR BANDS.

We shall see. HOURLY totals of 2 to as much as 4 inches locally I feel is hyping this.

Couple of inches locally for the entire area of rain is rational.

HYPING multiple hours of rain rates to a couple of inches of rain per hour, let alone as much as FOUR INCHES of rain an hour for several hours is downright irresponsible. Forecast should be for localized areas to get maybe 1 -2 inches of the rain, with most communities getting perhaps a half an inch to three quarters of an inch with this area of rain, is warranted.

Less hype, a ton more rationality, is what is called for here.

Throw that pipe in the dumpster.

I am NOT buying into the hype machine. This nonsense never works on The Jebman. I will get half an inch of the rain. I am not greedy. I've enjoyed nearly 9 inches already from this system. Give tonights rain to someone else. Let THEM enjoy destructive flooding. Sometimes, I am actually GLAD I am moving out to Hell Texas.

Besides, I am sick and tired of my mom making ME slave around carrying junk out to the dumpster in the torrential rain. I'm sick of it already. Enough. I need a break. My ENTIRE frackin' wardrobe is SOAKED! No more, please. Where's the sun? Don't we ever get upper ridges with summer level temperatures around here anymore? I want 103 degrees in Dale City before I leave!

[Jebman]

Update: Rain elements are weakening as they move north. That is a very good thing. We really do need to dry out. I do NOT want anyone to die in a flood. Ha ha ha NWS. You were greatly mistaken about this overnight. I dont even know why you get paid! LMAO!

You guys in the NWS are dumb to put heavy rain for FOUR frackin periods for Dale City. Thirty percent chance of showers, thats fine. But the hyperbole is epic, and it ignites PANIC.

I'll try my best to hold your hand and explain to you how to do your job. ROFLMAO

Today is Tuesday. Today variably cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Some might be heavy. Dont put heavy rain on the headline. Thats hyperbole. Someone should be fired outright for that sh!t. Tonight, 50 percent chance of showers. Wednesday, mostly cloudy, 30 percent chance of a passing shower. Becoming partly cloudy with temperatures FINALLY rising to seasonable levels! Highs in the upper 80s. Some locations in central and southern Virginia may top 90 degrees.

 

Nothing but uproarious laughter at the NWS for their stupid HEAVY RAIN headline for Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Go back to met school for the next fifty years.

 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The firehose has finally turned on here. Pouring. 0.80" in the last 30 mins.

Ended up with 1.85" in 2 hours. Heard a few rumbles of thunder.

[LP08]

Tornado warning for the Baileys Crossroad area...looked tighter a few scans ago but yikes

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Tornado Warning Fairfax County.

[southmdwatcher]

Yeah, the couplet looked tight on TDCA and KLWX just barely west of the 395/Duke St area. It is broader now. I did not see any signature of debris on CC

[das]

Yes, tight couplet just north of Springfield. 

[osfan24]

Picked up exactly 2 inches between yesterday and overnight. Was actually surprised the total wasn't higher because it rained really hard for various periods between 8 and 11 last night, and then it was coming down hard when I woke up this morning as well. My area must have been skipped over mostly overnight.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I was woken by the tornado warning from my phone.  At least I know it works. 

[GramaxRefugee]

Another 1.05" since midnight.

About 10.8 since Saturday a.m.

[MN Transplant]

Slept right through this morning’s fun.  1.69” in less than an hour.  Little wind, so no tornado here.

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Slept right through this morning’s fun.  1.69” in less than an hour.  Little wind, so no tornado here.

Wow. Is that why it’s so wet out? Didn’t realize we got so much in such a short time.

Leave for a couple days of work in Cincinnati this morning. I’m *not* telling my wife that there was a tornado warning nearby.

Need that blob south of here to go somewhere else. New sump pump isn’t in yet...

[southmdwatcher]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like the heavy stuff this morning will be from DC, west. Picked up another half inch or so yesterday and last night. I'm not expecting much in my area today.

Wakefield VA radar shows quite a bit of rain and storms heading up into MD, and should impact DC and east toward the bay.

[MN Transplant]

13 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Wow. Is that why it’s so wet out? Didn’t realize we got so much in such a short time.

Leave for a couple days of work in Cincinnati this morning. I’m *not* telling my wife that there was a tornado warning nearby.

Need that blob south of here to go somewhere else. New sump pump isn’t in yet...

We need to set up a GoFundMe to buy you a $5 rain gauge.  Based on radar, you might have had a touch more than me.

8.03” since Saturday

[H2O]

That rain just west of DC was stupid earlier.  Hit a wall of water on the beltway at I-95 and coming around towards Tysons was a slow crawl.  A ton of standing water.  That TOR warning was near my mom's house.  Can't get a hold of her.

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The firehose has finally turned on here. Pouring. 0.80" in the last 30 mins.

Your pending invite is officially cancelled.

I did not receive a drop last night, and I wake to see the entire region, save for my area, under yellows and oranges.  

Another ridiculous FFW, even as NWS  cut back on the forecast totals again.  

[das]

50 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Slept right through this morning’s fun.  1.69” in less than an hour.  Little wind, so no tornado here.

Here's the loop, saved here for posterity in case anything touched down.  (edited to add, eh, every time I upload the .gif, it uploads all 13mb of the loop but only displays the first 600kb image in the loop.  If anyone wants it, PM me and I'll e-mail it to you)

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Pouring rain, 0.79” here for the day with no end in sight on radar. 

[Stormpc]

.16 so far today., west side of Woodbridge. Missed out on the heavy rain by a mile or so to my east. Slept thru it anyway.  Today is going to be interesting. Be safe everyone.

[nw baltimore wx]

2.68" for total of 10.31". Still raining.

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

8 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Someone can check me on this, but I'm pretty sure that BWI (previously the State House) surpassed their rainiest July ever (10.65" in 1905) this evening, and is now less than 3" from its rainiest month ever (13.83" in August 1933).

That persistent plume along the western bay this afternoon and evening needs to shift east or west to give the basements in these parts a break. I'm closing in on 11" for the past 3 days.

Rainiest July at BWI was 11.03" in 1889, which will be blown out today. August 1933 is up for grabs too I think.

[mattie g]

30 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

We need to set up a GoFundMe to buy you a $5 rain gauge.  Based on radar, you might have had a touch more than me.

8.03” since Saturday

I had a basic plastic gauge until a few years ago, but I left it out in the cold while full and it developed a bunch of cracks. I’m not *quite* weather-geeky/freaky enough to drop the coin for a fancy setup , but I should at least get another basic one!

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Rainiest July at BWI was 11.03" in 1889, which will be blown out today. August 1933 is up for grabs too I think.

Thanks. 

[CAPE]

47 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like the heavy stuff this morning will be from DC, west. Picked up another half inch or so yesterday and last night. I'm not expecting much in my area today.

Early on yeah, but the daytime heating with this air-mass should pop some convection this afternoon. Also looks like the pattern may begin to progress a bit tonight into tomorrow, so the deep moisture plume should be directed a bit more eastward. Certainly appears more widespread heavy rain will occur tonight into tomorrow.

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I had a basic plastic gauge until a few years ago, but I left it out in the cold while full and it developed a bunch of cracks. I’m not *quite* weather-geeky/freaky enough to drop the coin for a fancy setup , but I should at least get another basic one!

MNTransplant recommended this to me several years ago. My kind of instrument because it's plenty affordable and very accurate. Not to mention it's cool checking out the maps.

https://cocorahs.org/