MN Transplant Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 3 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Hey mattieg, those last few frames of the 12z 3km NAM remind you of anything? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 316 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The low will continue its northerly progression Saturday along the Delmarva peninsula. The ECMWF continues to be one of the farthest east models. Regardless, this situation bears watching as a strong low level jet will be wrapping around the low with its nose focused on eastern portions of our forecast area. Trajectories bring tropical moisture and deep warm cloud layers from the Gulf of Mexico. Some periods of moderate to heavy rain appear likely. The question is how much convective potential can be realized, because that could lead to excessive rainfall rates. As it is, rainfall will be very efficient, with 2+ inch totals by the time the system pulls away. Will let later shifts determine the need for a Flood Watch given the uncertainties in the duration of heavy rainfall and banding features. Greater concern lies near and east of I-95, including Baltimore and Washington. There will likely be a gap with little to no precip in central parts of the CWA, with potential showers and storms associated with the upper level low affecting far southwestern zones. Thick clouds and precip will hold temperatures in the 70s. The low will pull away to the northeast Saturday evening, and convection associated with the upper low will diminish with loss of insolation, so overall there will be decreasing chances of rain through the night. Low clouds and potentially some fog and drizzle could linger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 18z NAM is still wet along 95 for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 The 18z NAM is a little farther east and has a 995 mb low at 21z Saturday.... It then has a ridiculous heavy band of rain and proceeds to go right over my house at 995 mb by 01z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: We can take it to the banter/ot thread since it's a past event but Lee wasn't a big deal for the immediate DC/Baltimore metro areas. Some isolated areas got big totals but the widespread heavy rains were confined to the mts. of VA, MD and PA. It may have been somewhat spotty, but weather is an IMBY game, and I “won” big-time with Lee. That’s really all I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Cool read from Mt Holly AFD.. A high amplitude pattern will feature a cutoff low over the Midwest that is sandwiched between strong downstream ridging over the western Atlantic basin as well as an anticyclone over the Southwest U.S. and Southern Plains. As mentioned in the previous section, a secondary low will organize near the base of the negatively-tilted trough in coastal Carolinas tonight. This coastal low is then forecast to continue deepening to around 1004 mb on Saturday as it tracks northward toward the Delmarva. Models continue to show a well- developed mid-latitude cyclone as it moves into our area later in the day, which is rather extraordinary for the middle of summer. Low CAPE profiles from the latest models indicate a rather low threat of lightning without the presence of upright convective instability to support deeper updrafts. However, cross-sectional analysis from the 12Z NAM and GFS show the potential for CSI along and east of the low track where very high theta-e air in the warm sector wraps around the low. Accordingly, the potential for slantwise instability juxtaposed in a region of very strong lift from an impressive 60-kt SEly low-level jet (zonal and meridional component wind anomalies of -5SD and +5SD, respectively) and deep tropical moisture (forecast PWATs of 2.25-2.5" would be near-record values) will be more than enough to compensate for a lack of upright instability to produce heavy rainfall rates in excess of 1-2" per hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Bit of a convective feedback issue going on (especially on the 3km), so use with care. Low placement and strength scream issues with latent heat release. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 FF watch for MD eastern shore, all of DE and southern half of NJ. Forecast for mby is 2-4" through tomorrow night. Bring it. Way too late to save my torched grass though. I guess I will be doing the annual re-seed in another month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 TWC has my town getting thunderstorms every day past Saturday and almost every night. Amazing wet pattern we're going into considering how dry it's been. Widespread 3-5'' amounts with some isolated 5-8'' to be had according to this map Potentially our best opportunities coming for a few loud boomers at night so far this year at least after this zipper low zooms up the coast and into your fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 00z 3km NAM shows 2 to 4 inches of rain or so along i95 corridor... 00z NAM crushes S MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 9 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Cool read from Mt Holly AFD.. A high amplitude pattern will feature a cutoff low over the Midwest that is sandwiched between strong downstream ridging over the western Atlantic basin as well as an anticyclone over the Southwest U.S. and Southern Plains. As mentioned in the previous section, a secondary low will organize near the base of the negatively-tilted trough in coastal Carolinas tonight. This coastal low is then forecast to continue deepening to around 1004 mb on Saturday as it tracks northward toward the Delmarva. Models continue to show a well- developed mid-latitude cyclone as it moves into our area later in the day, which is rather extraordinary for the middle of summer. Low CAPE profiles from the latest models indicate a rather low threat of lightning without the presence of upright convective instability to support deeper updrafts. However, cross-sectional analysis from the 12Z NAM and GFS show the potential for CSI along and east of the low track where very high theta-e air in the warm sector wraps around the low. Accordingly, the potential for slantwise instability juxtaposed in a region of very strong lift from an impressive 60-kt SEly low-level jet (zonal and meridional component wind anomalies of -5SD and +5SD, respectively) and deep tropical moisture (forecast PWATs of 2.25-2.5" would be near-record values) will be more than enough to compensate for a lack of upright instability to produce heavy rainfall rates in excess of 1-2" per hour. I already experienced light rain at 1am from altocumulus clouds. Rain bucket is set up. I am going to enjoy everything I can get, because I will be going down to Hell, Texas in a little over a week where it will likely not rain again til early 2019, and that precip WILL be rain, not snow. Hell Texas is in the grip of a devastating heat wave. That hellish heat will enthusiastically greet me when I get there, lol. So will the clouds of bloodthirsty mosquitoes and hordes of 3 inch scorpions. I am not happy about this. Not one little bit. Be very glad you are not poor Jebman, hot Texas-bound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 14 hours ago, Sparky said: I hope we drown. I do too. I love the water, and besides, if I get to drown in torrential flooding, I dont have to go to Hell, Texas. So, Bring It! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 The Euro is impressive for later today for MD. 4”+ in parts of PG county over to Annapolis. The HRRR is similar, maybe a shade more toward the Bay. In VA, this looks fairly boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Been getting some light to moderate rain here the past hour. Was hoping this would hold off till noon. Oh well, guess I will stay inside and move happy hour up 4 hours or so. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Family at Ocean City this weekend, looks like waterspots are even possible later today and tonight . Think the Euro had some 10 meter wind gusts possible as well, up to 55 to 65 mph in places Cape May Court House off the Garden State Parkway I thought I saw the highest 10 meter wind gust forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 First drizzle coming down 74/72 and mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 HRRR very impressive right over Baltimore. Someone likely topping a half foot of rain from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: HRRR very impressive right over Baltimore. Someone likely topping a half foot of rain from this. When you look at the current radar over the East with the Upper low over the Midwest , the bow echo line dropping SE into Atlanta and the SE states, and the coastal moving North really looks like a winter event. Pretty cool to look at and run a loop . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Oh my. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 28 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Oh my. HRRR definitely increased some westward. Yucky rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 The 12z NAM is a 8 mb pressure drop from the 06z run, and probably has a convective feedback issue. Check it out for the lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Never trust the NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Never trust the NAM unless it's 3km res 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 If you are in Va rooting for rain, the expansion west of returns is encouraging. Raining as far west as Culpeper, central Fauquier and Loudoun counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 hrrr and latest guidance are basically showing the potential for a hecs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 satellite loop is whoa. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=VA_WV-vis-1-48&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Bright and sunny here. Total shutout. Knew I should have treated the yard yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 i've seen worse radar depictions for this area: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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