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July Discobs Thread


George BM
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I have nearly 1.5 for the month, all since Sunday afternoon. I was fortunate. Even though places just to my East and North are pushing 4 inches for the 3-day period. Dale City and Woodbridge into southern Fairfax got the brunt. MN Trans and I were on the edges. In between us got crushed (Matt/Yoda).

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

You will like this then

 

A setup like what is progged on the global guidance would favor the coastal plain and eastern slopes of the mountains.  There would likely be a minimum somewhere around I-95 and it's important to note that not everyone would get widespread 5"+.  

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Hey, did any one else have a fairly strong gust move through in the last hour or so?  At work and all of a sudden wind picked up quite strongly, enough for people to think a thunderstorm was about to happen.  However it only lasted for about 15 - 20 seconds then back to relative calm.  Very bizarre.  

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Updated long term LWX AFD:

Quote

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY, AN EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITH AN EMBEDDED 
VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE 
OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE TROUGH WILL 
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF TO OUR WEST WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN 
PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC. OVER TIME, THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL 
DEFORM FROM A WELL ROUNDED TROUGH, TO A WEAKER, MORE MERIDIONALLY 
ELONGATED FEATURE AS IT IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM CANADA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE 
NORTH ATLANTIC.

DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS OVER 
OUR AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH 
HANGING BACK TO OUR WEST, WE WILL ALSO BE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE 
LOCATION FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THIS COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE 
LEVELS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERHEAD WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 
2.25 INCHES OVER OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THOSE 
HIGH PW VALUES, COUPLED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD ENCOURAGE 
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 
WIND PROFILES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD ALSO ENCOURAGE TRAINING 
OF STORMS. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS LIKELY AND AN ENVIRONMENT 
CONDUCIVE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR 
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD.

WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 

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