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July Discobs Thread


George BM
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Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

VAZ051-052-501-502-171830-
Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Northern
Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FAUQUIER...
NORTH CENTRAL CULPEPER AND WEST CENTRAL PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...

At 159 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered between
Orleans and Warrenton, moving east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail is possible with these storms and wind gusts to 35
mph.

Locations impacted include...
Warrenton, Linton Hall, Bealeton, Haymarket, The Plains, Gainesville,
New Baltimore, Marshall, Nokesville, Opal, Catlett, Calverton,
Midland, Broken Hill, Auburn, Casanova, Jeffersonton, Cresthill,
Orlean and Greenwich.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
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22 minutes ago, high risk said:

north-central/northern MD isn't going to do well based on radar.    I misspoke earlier when I said that the line in southern PA matched the NAM3.   The NAM3 correctly fired new convection right along the I-95 corridor.    The HRRR has been kind of sparse today.

Yeah. That's what I was referring to with my earlier worry over how this was panning out. I know it is hit and miss with winners in the summer, but Balt City is only getting clipped to the south and from Hampden north it is missing. So dry, really wanted some rain out of this...

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Is this IT?

Can we heat back up and destabilize a bit toward evening to get round 2? Looks to be energy, or the actual front still way west. Almost appears like this was a mini vort at the base of the leading edge of the long squall line that stretches into New England. 

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5 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Is this IT?

Can we heat back up and destabilize a bit toward evening to get round 2? Looks to be energy, or the actual front still way west. Almost appears like this was a mini vort at the base of the leading edge of the long squall line that stretches into New England. 

There is another line in central PA that interests me. If some locations' energy hasn't been tapped into yet, then it's certainly a possibility.

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