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Rtd208

July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

While it does appear that the batch of rain from down in the Mid-Atlantic is having trouble reaching further North of Central NJ, there is quite a bit of rain over Northern PA and extreme Southern NY that appears to be heading in this direction.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=bgm&loop=yes

that's where I think we can catch a surprise tonight and tomorrow AM

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GFS high temperature bias continues:

GFS average high for the next 10 days is  93, and the EURO's is 85.

At any rate we have about 60 hours till a long run of AN hot air invades.  

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5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

While it does appear that the batch of rain from down in the Mid-Atlantic is having trouble reaching further North of Central NJ, there is quite a bit of rain over Northern PA and extreme Southern NY that appears to be heading in this direction.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=bgm&loop=yes

Of course heading in our direction doesn't mean it's gonna rain here, and the rain fell apart as expected. The models were right about us getting nothing this afternoon and evening.

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Of course heading in our direction doesn't mean it's gonna rain here, and the rain fell apart as expected. The models were right about us getting nothing this afternoon and evening.

models from hour 0-12 are very accurate for the most part...that get lost in the shuffle sometimes...

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Last day of July is averaging 76degs , or 1deg. BN.

Month to date is  +1.1 and should end there.  Take out the first 5 days of July and the remainder of July was -0.5.

The full 8 days is 81/+4.  

GFS has 11 day HW starting Aug. 5.

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Precip chances this week continue to look less than impressive

Upton went fairly wet, but models show the best rains inland (which make sense with a WAR building westward)

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So much for the idea of heading north to avoid the July heat.

July 2018 is shaping up to have the warmest average July temperature on record for Burlington, VT with ~76 degrees and avg max of ~87 or more like Philadelphia, PA. Here is the mean weather pattern responsible. Read more atow.ly/5zkD30lbMZV #MeteorologicalMonday #BTV pic.twitter.com/KUIGvgpxA1
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Parts of Suffolk continue the dry July pattern since 2013. This is the 6th consecutive July with below normal rainfall at Islip.

2018...2.98....-0.33 so far...normal...3.43

2017...2.11....-1.32

2016...3.22....-0.21

2015...1.74....-1.69

2014...2.96....-0.47

2013...2.34....-1.09

This is a pattern that seems to happen most summers out east where it is a lot drier than the western part of the island because they miss the thunderstorms.  My house in Laurel Hollow has had 4.38 inches for the past month whereas my house in Southampton at 2.81 inches.

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1 hour ago, LHSnow said:

This is a pattern that seems to happen most summers out east where it is a lot drier than the western part of the island because they miss the thunderstorms.  My house in Laurel Hollow has had 4.38 inches for the past month whereas my house in Southampton at 2.81 inches.

Big shift at ISP from 2006-2012 which had 4 top 10 wettest Julys.

#4....6.52...2009

#5....6.50...2007

#7....5.46...2006

#9...4.80....2012

 

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July ended at 77.6, or +1.1.   Leaving out the HW of the first 5 days of the month, the last 26 days were  about -0.50.

The summer to date is +0.66.

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

July ended at 77.6, or +1.1.   Leaving out the HW of the first 5 days of the month, the last 26 days were  about -0.50.

The summer to date is +0.66.

LGA just missed a top 10 warmest July average temperature. The 79.8 and +2.4 ranks as the 11th warmest July average temperature. July finished in 4th place for the greatest number of daily minimum temperatures staying at or above 70 with 25 days.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

LGA just missed a top 10 warmest July average temperature. The 79.8 and +2.4 ranks as the 11th warmest July average temperature. July finished in 4th place for the greatest number of daily minimum temperatures staying at or above 70 with 25 days.

Other stations finished with much lower departures than LGA...Departure here was just +0.6° similar to NYC, EWR, JFK. A humid month for sure but not that hot. Also had 8.45" of rain.

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36 minutes ago, doncat said:

Other stations finished with much lower departures than LGA...Departure here was just +0.6° similar to NYC, EWR, JFK. A humid month for sure but not that hot. Also had 8.45" of rain.

The LGA departure was more in line with our northern areas. White Plains finished July +2.2 and Sussex, NJ +2.9. Those stations were closer to the record warmth to our north.

As we close the book on July 2018 here's an easy way to describe it, the single hottest month in Burlington, VT history back to 1892. Here's more on the stats and records from July. #vtwx #nywx pic.twitter.com/1db3I19ycR

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