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Rtd208

July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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There should be some enhanced chances for showers/thunder with locally heavy rain tonight into tomorrow morning as the moisture plume evident over the Atlantic towards eastern Long Island and New England backs west.  Should see the lift from the low to mid-level moisture and warm advection along with the right-entrance quad of the upper-level jet help spark scattered convection in the humid and fairly unstable airmass at times through Monday before the core of the moisture axis and better jet support shift a little west.  Still could be spotty showers/thunder thereafter through Tuesday, but heaviest stuff should be to our west (maybe clipping NW NJ).  This could end up being pretty bad just to our west in PA where they got more rain last night and will be in a pattern supportive of numerous storms with heavy rain rates through Wednesday.  The moisture axis shifts back east for Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday which should cause our chances for storms with locally heavy rain to ramp back up.  

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35 minutes ago, OHweather said:

There should be some enhanced chances for showers/thunder with locally heavy rain tonight into tomorrow morning as the moisture plume evident over the Atlantic towards eastern Long Island and New England backs west.  Should see the lift from the low to mid-level moisture and warm advection along with the right-entrance quad of the upper-level jet help spark scattered convection in the humid and fairly unstable airmass at times through Monday before the core of the moisture axis and better jet support shift a little west.  Still could be spotty showers/thunder thereafter through Tuesday, but heaviest stuff should be to our west (maybe clipping NW NJ).  This could end up being pretty bad just to our west in PA where they got more rain last night and will be in a pattern supportive of numerous storms with heavy rain rates through Wednesday.  The moisture axis shifts back east for Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday which should cause our chances for storms with locally heavy rain to ramp back up.  

 

Good post. I concur with this analysis. 

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Miami afternoon.  Probable see lots of rainbows later.  Up to 86 here for the high

Another summer at JFK with 10 or more dew point days reaching 75 degree or higher. It's been quite a run especially over the last 3 summers.

JFK 75+ dew point days for 2018 so far with daily dew point max

6-19...75

7-1....75

7-2....76

7-3....78

7-4....76

7-5....77

7-6....77

7-17..76

7-17..76

7-22..76

 

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Next 8 days will be averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  +1.7.   Should be  +1.5 by the 31st.

Seems if you throw away the first 5 days of July, the remainder of it will end up just Normal.

CMC/GFS still have 5" to 6" over next 10 days.  The PW may drop and LI may go + for 60hrs. around the weekend.

Longer range the RWTT says we dry out and burn up in August.   Tropical mischief near the 20th.  We get the Ridge Treatment and PacificNW gets the trough.  Then next switcheroo not till early Sept.

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You know the WAR is pushed unusually far north when BTV has a bigger temperature departure in July than LGA and EWR.

Through 7/22

BTV....+5.1

LGA....+2.6

EWR..+1.3

MonthTDeptNRCC.png.98f9b2bfa6cb91445c09906abf7ba84a.png

 

 

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15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

vis_nj_anim.gif

Clouds clearing, working in from the SSE

We're not clearing out today. Might get lucky and see a few breaks of sun, which would only help to destabilize even more.

The strongest axis of lift is working Westward, so the next 24 hours shouldn't be quite as wet in most locations, but chances for rain increase going into Wednesday. 

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14 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Wow you're doing much better than here on this side of the river. It's wet enough though, I don't need the big numbers  ;)

 

10 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree I'm about 1/2 a mile from the river. I have 0.94 in the bucket since midnight.

Some stations just west of me are approaching 4"

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24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hardest hit area over the next 2-3 days appears to be far Eastern PA, but I suspect that most of Western NJ is in for a good soaking as well.

Some stations just west of me near the NJ/PA/NY border are approaching 3" since midnight & 4" since the event started. Drastic difference from areas near or E of the Hudson. 

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26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hardest hit area over the next 2-3 days appears to be far Eastern PA, but I suspect that most of Western NJ is in for a good soaking as well.

Yeah GFS is crazy wet in those areas the next 10 days

gfs_apcpn_neus_40.png

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