bluewave Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Over 6” here in Wantagh just about 10 miles west of Islip. I have really lucked out this month getting allot of Nassau county specials. Things are very lush here now! My weather highlight this month was picking up 1.30 in 30 minutes last week. That is my heaviest 30 minute rainfall total of the last few years. But you have me beat since 2015 with the Wantagh deluge in September 2015 of 6+ in a few hours. I haven't experienced really extreme rainfall since the 10+ in under 12 hours in LB in August 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 82degs here., with streaks of blue sky mixed in with the varied clouds. Humidity must be 70% and felt worse with the sun hitting me while walking. The best weather now appears to be Sunday into late Monday, then a lather, rinse, repeat cycle. The period of lower PW and positive LI shifted from earlier runs which showed Friday PM to Sunday PM as OK. The EURO is under +3 for the next 10, while the psycho GFS is +9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 12 hours ago, snywx said: Crazy.. 4.45" for the event here Yeah, the E-W gradient is insane. Reminiscent of last winter. I did a short waterfall tour in the Catskills this morning and was amazed at how high water levels were... it's pretty rare to get such high flow surrounded by the greens of summer, so that made for nice photos. Plattekill and Kaaterskill in particular were the angriest I've seen them in a long time. I'm sort of glad that the tropical Atlantic is as dead as it is - with the wet pattern liable to continue/resume into the beginning of August, even a more mellow Irene/Lee redux would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 39 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, the E-W gradient is insane. Reminiscent of last winter. I did a short waterfall tour in the Catskills this morning and was amazed at how high water levels were... it's pretty rare to get such high flow surrounded by the greens of summer, so that made for nice photos. Plattekill and Kaaterskill in particular were the angriest I've seen them in a long time. I'm sort of glad that the tropical Atlantic is as dead as it is - with the wet pattern liable to continue/resume into the beginning of August, even a more mellow Irene/Lee redux would be catastrophic. quite true.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 15 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next couple of days especially on Friday when we have the potential for some severe weather. Then it looks like we will get a brief break with more heavy rain/storms possible next week. Is there ANY sign of a break from this wretched humidity any time soon-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, Maureen said: Is there ANY sign of a break from this wretched humidity any time soon-ish? Yes, September. We are in the dog days of summer. By September or October we usually start to cool off 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Got everything going on now. Partly sunny with rain 86 dew 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 82/74 and sunny with a nice breeze. Big improvement over this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 26, 2018 Author Share Posted July 26, 2018 Current temp 90/DP 72/RH 52% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Made it to 88 today. Tue / Thu were not bad in what could have otherwise been a wash out of a week. Weekend looking mostly good. Lets see if the W.A.R trends more west for the 8/2 - 8/8 timeframe. A little dent in the west coast ridge also could allow east coast heights to rise furthrr inland and push flow more SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 7-26 ACY: 90 TEB: 90 LGA: 89 EWR: 88 New Brunswick: 87 TTN: 87 PHL: 87 NYC: 85 ISP: 83 JFK: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2018 Author Share Posted July 27, 2018 Current temp 77/DP 70/RH 74% High for the day was 91 Picked up 0.09" of rain for the day. 6 day total rainfall 2.07" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 The severe threat for Friday afternoon/evening is certainly interesting, though it's likely that a modest onshore component to the low-level wind and somewhat later timing causes a lower threat near the coast, particularly south of NYC... There will probably be some high clouds overspreading the region during the morning, but a period of decent heating looks likely. Though not as moist as earlier in the week, there's still respectable low-level moisture in the lowest several thousand feet...which should allow dew points to stay in the upper 60s on Friday even with strong daytime heating causing good mixing. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit how unstable it will get to an extent, though with rich-enough low-level moisture and strong heating the potential will exist for 1500-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE to develop by the afternoon...which is plenty. A mid to upper jet will move overhead during the afternoon, increasing bulk shear. Effective bulk shear of 30-40kt is expected to be in place Friday afternoon and evening. This is plenty of speed shear. The low-level flow is on the weaker side, which will probably keep the tornado threat fairly low despite good turning of the winds with height...though, any storms with a more deviate motion (right turners) could locally increase their storm-relative helicity (SRH) some...and locally increased wind fields near storms may also do that. Given the deep-layer shear will be decently strong and the low-levels look to have good turning, I don't want to say something weird that results in a tornado is impossible, but the weak low-level flow should keep the threat fairly low. For when/where storms fire and the mode of the storms...a weak boundary remains just inland from the coast right now, and the WPC and some models appear to keep that in place...perhaps getting re-enforced by a sea breeze by early to mid-afternoon. The airmass really isn't capped, so once we get good heating by early afternoon convective temps will be reached. Broad large-scale ascent overspreads the region by early afternoon as we get under the right-entrance quadrant of the jet stream to our north. There also appears to be an area of modest vorticity over the Ohio Valley right now that would glance the region early to mid-afternoon. Given this, suspect isolated to widely scattered storms fire early to at the absolute latest the middle of the afternoon. Likely initially focused on that lingering boundary, perhaps just inland from the coast in NJ to just north of NYC. Suspect due to the lack of a cap, the fairly sharp nature of the front, and broad large-scale ascent that the storms along the front will organize into a line over eastern PA and move east on the quicker side of modeling during the late afternoon or early evening...perhaps reaching NYC by 7-9PM. Due to some potential overturning from pre-frontal convection and a weak onshore flow and starting to lose daytime heating, the frontal storms will probably start to weaken at some point as they move east across NJ/southern NY during the early evening. Given moderate CAPE and deep-layer shear, the initial cellular activity may have some supercellular characteristics. Again, suspect most won't tighten up enough to produce a tornado, but can imagine a scenario where it happens with one storm or something. Main concern would be a hail risk and damaging downburst winds with any cells during the afternoon. The amount of instability could be enough for some larger than normal hail...supported by Craven-Brooks numbers perhaps pushing 30,000-40,000...though, with weak mid-level lapse rates and warm/humid low-levels, both negatives for very large hail, am not positive on that threat. Suspect any initial cells would have a hail threat, but that it may struggle to exceed quarter-sized. If a cell or two really went to town, could see larger with them for a time. Moderate DCAPE of 700-1000 J/KG due to some mid-level dry air would also support damaging downburst winds with stronger cells. The line that I think will move in from the west could have a decent damaging wind risk, though again, suspect that'll start to peter out gradually as it moves east during the early evening, so not sure how much of that threat would make it to the coast, especially south of NYC. Would personally go 30% wind/15% hail/2% tornado risks, highest from the Hudson Valley (perhaps extreme western MA) down through eastern PA/western NJ, dropping off to a slight risk down towards DC due to somewhat weaker shear/forcing farther south...and also dropping off to the east towards the NJ coast as mentioned. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2018 Author Share Posted July 27, 2018 SPC Day 1 Outlook https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Remainder of July is averaging 80degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +1.5. Should end July at +1.7. The full 8 days is 80/+3. STS/TOR threats seem like a powder puff, as most likely time of arrival is after sunset and PoP never reaches categorical, even for plain rain by LAMP. Going to beach will depend on my Nowcast as of 1pm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2018 Author Share Posted July 27, 2018 Pretty uncomfortable out there this morning. Current temp 79/DP 74/RH 82% Should have some storms later, possibly severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Great writeup OH These high minimums and dewpoints have to stop. Setting high temp records based on minimums is like cheating and feeds the warminista agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Great writeup OH These high minimums and dewpoints have to stop. Setting high temp records based on minimums is like cheating and feeds the warminista agenda. Yea that makes sense. I agree. Ignore half the data to feed the coolista agenda. Why use actual science? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Opposite of yesterday - clouds look to build in during the day http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Jul deP / rainfall thru 7/26 (5 days to go) LGA: +2.7 (5.22) TTN: +2.2 (5.51) ISP: +1.8 (2.95) NYC: +1.6 (6.83) EWR: +1.2 (5.14) PHL: +1.2 (2.91) JFK: +0.6 (3.56) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea that makes sense. I agree. Ignore half the data to feed the coolista agenda. Why use actual science? Sarcasmometer recalibration maybe What I'm getting at is that it hasn't been overly hot during the day compared to previous warm periods, the same way that we've been setting winter records where the days haven't been 'warm' but the nights haven't been as cold. I do understand though that this is what melts ice caps and warms bodies of water and creates the warming environment around them. It feels like cheating though as I want to see the big departures at the high end rather than incremental changes at the low end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 RWTT still shows an AN August everywhere (except PacificNW) and makes it the most AN here. If models give in on the precipitation bonanza, it will be due to ridge over us that holds on and on. Luckily by late August average is down about 4 degrees, since a +12 period is showing for last week of August. I will be watching for a change in this output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, CIK62 said: RWTT still shows an AN August everywhere and makes it the most AN here. If models give in on the precipitation bonanza, it will be due to ridge over us that holds on and on. Luckily by late August average is down about 4 degrees, since a +12 period is showing for last week of August. I will be watching for a change in this output. that's a big difference from the Euro and CFS which show cool weather in the nations's mid section and only the far west and our area/ New England are above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 84/77....steamy If I don’t get an 80 degree dew point this summer I’ll be disappointed. I keep coming so close. I’ll probably top out at 79.X, just like I fell short of 100 by 0.2 degrees on July 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 15 minutes ago, Cfa said: 84/77....steamy If I don’t get an 80 degree dew point this season I’ll be disappointed. I keep coming so close. I just ran the dew point numbers back to 1980. The 14 days of 75 degree or higher dew point maximums this month at JFK is the highest for July. Greatest # of July 75 or greater maximum dew point days at JFK since 1980 #1...14 days....2018 #2...11 days....1995 #3...10 days....2017....1987 #4....8 days......1994....1983 #5....7 days......1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2018 Author Share Posted July 27, 2018 Temp up to 87/DP 75/RH 64% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 90 imby as of 10:45am...it felt like I was in Florida this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 steamy out..86/73, increasing clouds though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: I just ran the dew point numbers back to 1980. The 14 days of 75 degree or higher dew point maximums this month at JFK is the highest for July. Greatest # of July 75 or greater maximum dew point days at JFK since 1980 #1...14 days....2018 #2...11 days....1995 #3...10 days....2017....1987 #4....8 days......1994....1983 #5....7 days......1999 Wow, yet another record demolished in the 2010s era. I’m also at 14 days of 75+ dews, with 3 of those days touching 78 (7/2, 7/3, and today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Cfa said: 84/77....steamy If I don’t get an 80 degree dew point this summer I’ll be disappointed. I keep coming so close. I’ll probably top out at 79.X, just like I fell short of 100 by 0.2 degrees on July 1st. I'll pass on that, nothing worse than record high dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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