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July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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13 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

lol love how they say numerous showers and t-storms will develop mean while all the precip is either way west of us or have dissipated down south.

These type of setups usually favor areas just to our west versus our area, we have seen this numerous times in the past.

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13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am honestly starting to wonder if we will even see that much rain tonight through tomorrow evening. But with the tropical air mass in place it is certainly possible. Time will tell.

It's very possible that we dodge most of this, just because the setup is there doesn't mean we'll take advantage of it. 

The precip remains very scattered, so it's all random, something I'm sure Floridians know very well. 

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59 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's very possible that we dodge most of this, just because the setup is there doesn't mean we'll take advantage of it. 

The precip remains very scattered, so it's all random, something I'm sure Floridians know very well. 

We haven’t had a mechanism to tap into the PW.  Tomorrow the trough swings east with the weak cold front. That will act as the mechanism to tap into the rediculous PW’s. At that point we should see an organized area of rain that should get the entire region. Until then it’s just widely scattered convection which should be mostly inland 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s rained here at least 3 times already today, including a downpour 5 minutes ago.

It’s been drier East of the Hudson, but it was expected to be.

I'm surprised, it was dry here all day.

All the action has remained to our west, and one has to wonder if it will stay that way for tomorrow like others have mentioned.

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24 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I'm surprised, it was dry here all day.

All the action has remained to our west, and one has to wonder if it will stay that way for tomorrow like others have mentioned.

It’s forecasted to start moving back East. There’s a 90% chance of rain here by 4am.

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Latest RWTT output still shows the next 30 as AN everywhere in the US except where it is the most AN now---the PacificNW.   Ditto the next 90 days.

Portland, Oregon having a Chicago Heatwave 1995 type moment coming in to this week and for the week itself.  Actually no end to it this month.   Many w/o AirCond. in an area which averages cooler than our record cool summers.

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NAM gives most of us the split-screw tomorrow-heavy rain in PA, and heavy rain offshore, maybe 0.5" if lucky in between for us. In general this last few day period has brought little more than awful humidity. The coastal system and showery rain the day after gave me maybe 0.75", nothing since. 

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NAM gives most of us the split-screw tomorrow-heavy rain in PA, and heavy rain offshore, maybe 0.5" if lucky in between for us. In general this last few day period has brought little more than awful humidity. The coastal system and showery rain the day after gave me maybe 0.75", nothing since. 

models have been bad on this one for the coast-the RGEM showed 2 inches here Monday, we got about .05   I bet most of the coastal folks are mainly dry tomorrow.

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12 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Yeah you know I'm pretty OK not being hit by that much rain.

Someone in PA is gonna end up with a foot of rain.  Or maybe they already have, I didn't look up storm totals.

Hersheypark was closed due to flooding. It looked like they literally had a chocolate river

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