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July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Next 8 days still averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  +2.5.    Should be  +2.1 by the 28th.

Both the GFS/CMC are 4" during the next 10 days, or nearly 3x normal.   All this could continue for 12 or 13 days, which is the record for consecutive days with precipitation in NYC.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

What a wet run of the 06z GFS for this weekend and beyond. Obviously places that see rainfall enhanced by convection could see even higher amounts then what is being shown.

A Gale Warning would be needed if this run is believed.   Mix down winds to 60mph. very easily on Sat. Evening  and night.

WELL AT LEAST THERE IS A GALE WATCH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Issued To: Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm

HEADLINE: Gale Watch issued July 20 at 4:01AM EDT until July 22 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning.
* WINDS AND SEAS...East to southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts
up to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet on the ocean waters and 3 to 5 ft
on Long Island Sound.

INSTRUCTIONS: A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 kt has significantly increased, but the specific timing and/or
location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional
lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their
plans.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

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Suffolk County got their drought monitor upgrade yesterday. Although we had the heavy rains a few days ago, the very dry conditions for much of this month resulted in D0 conditions. But like so many of the 2010's dry patterns, this one will be short lived also. Dry condition busting heavy rains are in the forecast. This July is the 5th in a row since 2014 with D0 or D1 drought conditions. Luckily, none of these dry periods could match the extended more severe droughts of the 1990's into early 2000's.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

7-17-18....D0....Suffolk

7-17-17....D0

7-17-16....D1

7-17-15....D1

7-15-14....D0

IMG_0189.PNG.2b3c384a1515f4cefad6d379a00ca74d.PNG

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Southerly tropical flow the next 7-10 days = rain / storms high humidity.  On around 7/31 some hints the ridge / height push west and we get more SW flow and more heat.  We'll see how it evolves which to me is much like Jun 2013 and Aug 2003 both were followed by a period of warmth / heat.  Either way its wet / humid from here on out.

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24 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

EURO WEEKLIES are AN Temps. for all 6 weeks.    The AN Precip. holds up till Mid-August, then Normal.

RWTT is screaming AN Temps. for the entire Northern Hemisphere during the next 90.

A large portion of that will be by way of elevated minimums due to high DP's/humidity.  But some heat mixed in as well is possible.

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24 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

EURO WEEKLIES are AN Temps. for all 6 weeks.    The AN Precip. holds up till Mid-August, then Normal.

RWTT is screaming AN Temps. for the entire Northern Hemisphere during the next 90.

I think the temps will moderate a bit with such strong moisture fetch, at least in the short term.  You know, high dews, lots of clouds, tends to fight busted high temp forecasts.  If we get a more cT regime vs mT then forget that.

Hard for me to buy in to strong AN precip and strong AN temp in one long-term forecast.

Would love to hear Forky's thoughts.

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This July is one for the record books across the Northern Hemisphere. A very unusual ring of 500 mb blocking set up across the entire hemisphere near 50N. It resulted in the heat and drought in many locations. The current MJO pulse appears to be disturbing this pattern. The single ridge is breaking up into several segments. The WAR shifting east to the Maritimes is ushering in the wetter pattern with the deep tropical moisture feed. 

IMG_0190.GIF.25b66f2f47057558c7238ad1f87211fe.GIF

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_nhem_1.thumb.png.fccf052170da02e86b6e2350080c7a03.png

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_nhem_6.thumb.png.dd39b587a9610b27094750e332d6c2d1.png

 

 

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Still some hint / progression that on/around 7/31 into first week of August heights / ridge push west inland as WC ridge is breached a bit - if things progress this way - look for a period of more heat whether brief or not TBD, otherwise humid and very wet as was the likely flip from where we were late June to yesterday.

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On 7/11/2018 at 3:05 AM, SnoSki14 said:

I don't know about that, I had dews that were pushing 80F and the 70+ dew stretch lasted almost a week. 

Right now there's nothing to indicate we'll see a repeat of that, in fact a troughy late July/August is much more likely.

You sure about that? The humidity is back. August is always humid and disgusting. I think I’m going to go on a limb and say August is way below average

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36 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

You sure about that? The humidity is back. August is always humid and disgusting. I think I’m going to go on a limb and say August is way below average

What would constitute way below average in August? That seems like very risky call. August looks normal to maybe just below normal for temps to me, but the dew points look to be quite high. All you need is a few breaks of sun with humidity and you can easily get to the mid-80s, just like today. I think the overnight lows help keep us at normal even if day time highs are not super hot. 

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