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July 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier
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Line really broke up/fell apart as it approached.  Rained for just a few minutes in the afternoon with a small cell that developed out ahead.

Upcoming week looks like mainly isolated/scattered storms of the pop up variety... so low predictability with that.   

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Unlike a lot of what I'm seeing, the storms today were pretty good here; I had one severe storm miss just to the NW, but had two separate cells develop right after that to the SW, one became severe as it was passing by, and some more moderate to heavy rain and thunder for about an hour after that.  I'm thinking we picked up about a half inch of rain.  So far has been one of those summers that has a good balance of weather, not too much heat, rain or clouds.

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Not in our area...but for posterity, here is the Burlington VT forecast discussion.  Max/min in BTV yesterday was 96/76, and the low temp this morning was 81.  It may be close to 100 today...and we'll have to see if the low temp of 81 holds before midnight.  Normals for today are 80/59.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1030 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Historically significant heat wave continues today with near record
to record high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Oppressive
humidity will continue today as well, with heat index values
peaking between 100 and 110 degrees in most valley locations. A
weak mid-level trough will shift eastward across northern New
York this evening, bringing isolated to scattered thunderstorms
to portions of northern New York and Vermont. A few strong
storms are possible with brief heavy rainfall and localized
strong wind gusts. Behind the trough, high temperatures will
remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday and
Independence Day, but humidity levels will be a bit more
moderate. A cold front arriving Thursday night and Friday will
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, followed by long
sought relief from the 90 plus degree temperatures on Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Monday...Morning to early afternoon forecast
remains on track with just a slight tweak needed to sky cover to
account for some cumulus popping up across the northern
Adirondacks. BTV is already 90F, indications of just how hot
it`s going to be today. Will we hit 100? Time will tell.

Previous Discussion...Rather incredible early morning underway
with temperatures steady at 85F at BTV and a 73F dewpoint. The
south wind around 10 mph feels like a misplaced trade wind from
the tropics, a surreal VT wx experience. The south winds and
scattered clouds in the Champlain Valley should hold early
morning temps 80+, before soaring back to the mid- upr 90s
areawide this afternoon. Today should be the hottest day of this
historic heat wave, with near record to record high
temperatures expected once again. Dewpoints will remain near
70F, resulting in continued oppressive humidity levels. With the
forecast on track, no changes to ongoing Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories valid thru this evening. Winds will
increase from the south with PBL heating/mixing, reaching 10-15
mph this afternoon with a few gusts near 20 mph.

It continues to appear that 700-500mb vorticity filament will
shift ewd into the northern Adirondacks around 00Z Tuesday,
along with weak sfc trough. Should be just enough forcing to
initiate convective storms late aftn/early evening across nrn
NY, with isolated scattered thunderstorms tracking ewd across
the Champlain Valley and nrn VT 23-04Z time frame. With PW
values near 2", included mention of heavy rainfall with any
thunderstorm activity. May also see a damaging downburst or
two...the SPC has portions of the forecast area in a marginal
risk of severe t-storms for this possibility later today, per
06Z Day 1 Outlook. Rain cooled outflow may well force
temperatures into the mid 70s at BTV before midnight...we`ll
watch how that evolves for climate purposes (all-time record
high-low is 78F at BTV, possible pending convective evolution).

Precip threat moves east and wanes overnight. May see some
patchy BR/FG late, especially in spots seeing tstm activity
earlier in the evening. Overnight lows generally in the low-mid
70s.
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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTW is always the warm spot behind YIP. I have no doubt we hit 90 tmrw wed and Thu. Im assuming its upsloping that does this. 

Downsloping, though it is also one of the further south locations in the CWA not near the water.

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3 hours ago, Stebo said:

Hit 90 again today to extend the heatwave. Could catch 2 maybe 3 more in a row with some luck on Thursday.

Toledo hit 91 today to extend the heat wave to 4 days, with dew points of 70+ on each day. Toledo could have 6 out of 7 days above 90, assuming it makes it to 90 on July 4th and 5th, possibly with 70+ dew points on 7 out of 7 days.

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