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July 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier
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10 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

That's already in the running for understatement of the month.

Didn't want to be too dramatic.  :P

Fyi, Chad is back at WLFI.  Don't worry, I already shared the joyous news with my former LAF buddy.   

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7 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

If you think this weekends gonna be bad, just stick around for next week :axe:

1F7F2C19-AEE8-4A81-97A6-AB20E4FC7EFA.jpeg

 

As alluded to in the banter thread, that is a ridiculous amount of real estate in those 594+ dm heights.  Doesn't mean it will translate into crazy hot temps, but what it may tend to do is suppress most organized convective potential over a pretty large area.

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Right now I think I'll go 96 Fri/Sat/Sun for ORD, with a peak DP during the period of 78.

Tomorrow has the coolest start out of the 3 days, but will feature by far the warmest UA temps. Sat/Sun have warmer starts, but cooling UA temps each passing day, and Sun has compressional heating potential with the front approaching. The wild cards will be the MCS/OFB/cloud debris potential for Fri, and then potential cloud debris issues on Sun as well.

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On 6/28/2018 at 4:24 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Right now I think I'll go 96 Fri/Sat/Sun for ORD, with a peak DP during the period of 78.

Tomorrow has the coolest start out of the 3 days, but will feature by far the warmest UA temps. Sat/Sun have warmer starts, but cooling UA temps each passing day, and Sun has compressional heating potential with the front approaching. The wild cards will be the MCS/OFB/cloud debris potential for Fri, and then potential cloud debris issues on Sun as well.

The last time ORD had 3 consecutive days of 95+ was in July 2012.  Last September just barely missed accomplishing that. 

Going to take me longer to find the last time they had the exact same high 3 days in a row.  :scooter:

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Right now I think I'll go 96 Fri/Sat/Sun for ORD, with a peak DP during the period of 78.

Tomorrow has the coolest start out of the 3 days, but will feature by far the warmest UA temps. Sat/Sun have warmer starts, but cooling UA temps each passing day, and Sun has compressional heating potential with the front approaching. The wild cards will be the MCS/OFB/cloud debris potential for Fri, and then potential cloud debris issues on Sun as well.

I noticed that Midway has often been 1-2 higher than ORD on dewpoints lately. Might mean they could have a slightly better shot than ORD to reach 80 if that continues.  The last time that either ORD or MDW had an 80 degree dewpoint on an hourly observation was 7/30/1999, when both sites reached 82.

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23 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Right now I think I'll go 96 Fri/Sat/Sun for ORD, with a peak DP during the period of 78.

Tomorrow has the coolest start out of the 3 days, but will feature by far the warmest UA temps. Sat/Sun have warmer starts, but cooling UA temps each passing day, and Sun has compressional heating potential with the front approaching. The wild cards will be the MCS/OFB/cloud debris potential for Fri, and then potential cloud debris issues on Sun as well.

Will revise to 92 for Sunday, given guidance has come back faster with the fropa now.

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20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Will revise to 92 for Sunday, given guidance has come back faster with the fropa now.

Can we will ORD to a 90 degree high on Monday?  Seems like the trickiest day out of the 7-8 day period that started today.  It looks potentially just warm enough aloft for 90 but mixing questions/lake breeze are issues.

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21 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Can we will ORD to a 90 degree high on Monday?  Seems like the trickiest day out of the 7-8 day period that started today.  It looks potentially just warm enough aloft for 90 but mixing questions/lake breeze are issues.

For a while it looked like it might be close, but not it's looking more unlikely.

Tue-Thur should be 90+ though still, with Thur being the warmest day.

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Although we should shave some amount off the heat indices this coming week, it will be pretty warm/muggy.  Outside of areas prone to marine influence, it may turn out to be "in numbers only"... I mean, if heat indices are only about 3-5 degrees lower than the past couple days, how much relief is that, really?  High dewpoints will remain with the usual sites possibly hitting 80 at times.  I suspect the segment of the public that is heat averse will have had about enough by next weekend.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up 0.00" overnight, as the storms died just nw as expected.  Will be interesting to see if we can get in on those storms as they pop up nearly overhead early this afternoon.  HRRR/3km NAM shows them popping up by noon, but any delay in the formation of the storms will kick us out of the game.  

Short-term models did pretty well with this.  Last night's 00z NSSL WRF nailed it.

EDIT:  Looks like MLI got 89'd today.

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