MJO812 Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 I know it's way too early but this is a good article by 40/70 Benchmark on this upcoming winter. Looking more and more like an EL Nino winter might be on the way. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/06/el-nino-watch-issued-for-winter-2018.html?m=1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 22, 2018 Author Share Posted June 22, 2018 https://patch.com/new-york/smithtown/s/ggb9g/enjoy-summer-because-early-forecasts-warn-brutal-ny-winter?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=autopost&utm_content=smithtown 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: https://patch.com/new-york/smithtown/s/ggb9g/enjoy-summer-because-early-forecasts-warn-brutal-ny-winter?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=autopost&utm_content=smithtown It would be nice to kick things off earlier this coming winter by getting our first significant/major winter storm prior to Christmas. This may be a bit of a stretch or wishful thinking but I am hoping for a 50"+ seasonal snowfall this winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 Looks west-based, which can be strong +PNA Winter, but more flexible. Good Winter for snow I think with the amplified Tropical Atlantic ridge so impressive right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/07/confidence-grows-for-modest-el-nino.html 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 we are coming off two years of la nina winters..these are the other el nino years following at least two la nina winters or weak negatives...as long as the el nino stays weak to moderate the chances for more snow than last winter goes up...except for the super el nino years of 72-73 and 97-98 NYC got at least 50% more snowfall than the previous winters... season peak oni...DJF oni...NYC snowfall... 1951-52......1.2......0.5...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter... 1957-58......1.8......1.8...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter... 1963-64......1.4......1.1...three times the amount of snow over the previous season... 1968-69......1.1......1.1...50% more snow than the previous season... 1972-73......2.1......1.8...very strong el nino...I doubt this year gets that strong...very little snow fell... 1976-77......0.9......0.7...50% more snow than the previous winter... 1986-87......1.2......1.2...almost double the amount of snow over the previous season... 1997-98......2.4......2.2...very strong el nino...I doubt it gets that strong...very little snow fell... 2002-03......1.3......0.9...10-15 times more snowfall than the previous season... 2009-10......1.6......1.5...double the amount of snow than the previous season... 2014-15......0.7......0.6...double the amount of snow than the previous season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 I don't know if my shoveling shoulders and back are young enough for an additional 50% over last years total. I probably won't complain (too much) if it happens though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 I am hoping this winter we start things off with a significant/major snowfall before Christmas. The second week of December would be nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 2 hours ago, uncle W said: we are coming off two years of la nina winters..these are the other el nino years following at least two la nina winters or weak negatives...as long as the el nino stays weak to moderate the chances for more snow than last winter goes up...except for the super el nino years of 72-73 and 97-98 NYC got at least 50% more snowfall than the previous winters... season peak oni...DJF oni...NYC snowfall... 1951-52......1.2......0.5...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter... 1957-58......1.8......1.8...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter... 1963-64......1.4......1.1...three times the amount of snow over the previous season... 1968-69......1.1......1.1...50% more snow than the previous season... 1972-73......2.1......1.8...very strong el nino...I doubt this year gets that strong...very little snow fell... 1976-77......0.9......0.7...50% more snow than the previous winter... 1986-87......1.2......1.2...almost double the amount of snow over the previous season... 1997-98......2.4......2.2...very strong el nino...I doubt it gets that strong...very little snow fell... 2002-03......1.3......0.9...10-15 times more snowfall than the previous season... 2009-10......1.6......1.5...double the amount of snow than the previous season... 2014-15......0.7......0.6...double the amount of snow than the previous season... Solid post, as always Unc. If you have the time and willingness to indulge my curiosity, what do things look like in ENSO-neutral years following double-Niña/weak negative years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 8 hours ago, Eduardo said: Solid post, as always Unc. If you have the time and willingness to indulge my curiosity, what do things look like in ENSO-neutral years following double-Niña/weak negative years? using the oni scale there were four neutral years but were neutral negative for DJF oni number...no neutral positives... 1956-57... 1986-87... 2001-02... 2012-13... 2013-14...second consecutive year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 19 hours ago, uncle W said: we are coming off two years of la nina winters..these are the other el nino years following at least two la nina winters or weak negatives...as long as the el nino stays weak to moderate the chances for more snow than last winter goes up...except for the super el nino years of 72-73 and 97-98 NYC got at least 50% more snowfall than the previous winters... season peak oni...DJF oni...NYC snowfall... 1951-52......1.2......0.5...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter... 1957-58......1.8......1.8...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter... 1963-64......1.4......1.1...three times the amount of snow over the previous season... 1968-69......1.1......1.1...50% more snow than the previous season... 1972-73......2.1......1.8...very strong el nino...I doubt this year gets that strong...very little snow fell... 1976-77......0.9......0.7...50% more snow than the previous winter... 1986-87......1.2......1.2...almost double the amount of snow over the previous season... 1997-98......2.4......2.2...very strong el nino...I doubt it gets that strong...very little snow fell... 2002-03......1.3......0.9...10-15 times more snowfall than the previous season... 2009-10......1.6......1.5...double the amount of snow than the previous season... 2014-15......0.7......0.6...double the amount of snow than the previous season... I was thinking 2013-14 when I said double the amount than the previous winter...2014-15 still had twice the normal amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10, 2018 Author Share Posted August 10, 2018 Joe Bastardi "Major cold stormy winter in the cards Could simply evolve into it from fall Extreme of coldest air could wind up over much of the US this winter" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Joe Bastardi "Major cold stormy winter in the cards Could simply evolve into it from fall Extreme of coldest air could wind up over much of the US this winter" Ah man ... I tell ya what, perhaps a better forecast for the winter: There is a 90% chance that that particular source would report that kind of outlook ... regardless of any leading theoretical indicators. In his defense... who knows if this is what he really said, or whether it is just some mangled, interpretive "paraphrased" junket of the hoi polloi's lust to hear those words, twisting what he actually said... Excluding that very real, secondary phenomenon that's leaped onto society as a new force to recon with for a moment, the sentiment, as presented above, is not unheard of or without precedence coming from that particular individual. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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