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summer banter thread


forkyfork
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6 hours ago, seanick said:

I am currently out west in Arizona chasing monsoons. It is pretty amazing.7NrU9Zb.jpg

I bet you're also getting some pretty good shots of the Perseid meteor showers. My favorite monsoon events when I lived out there were always at high elevations. I remember some devastatingly heavy rainfall periods in the mountains above Flagstaff and along the Continental Divide in Colorado the chaos was intense. 

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^^ I would think that would be dependent on what's going on at that moment. If it's spewing you'll see it from a reasonable distance, if it's night time I expect that you'd see the ground glowing from fairly far out also. From most of what I've seen it's just oozing or a smoky gas release so that would be hard to see unless it's a really smoky moment.

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For perspective: +10F ocean surface temperature anomalies are absolutely enormous. We've been seeing similarly huge departures from average near#Scandanavia in the #BalticSea this summer, where an exceptionally intense multi-month heatwave has baked the region. #CAwx #CAheattwitter.com/NWSSanDiego/st…
 
San Diego has hit at least 83 degrees the last 16 straight days. That has NEVER happened before, at least since local records began in 1874, says Mark Moede of NWS. Longest streak of 83-degree or hotter days before this year? 10, in 1979, 1978, 1965 and 1939. #sandiegoweather
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Heard on the Portland, Oregon radio station that today will be their 29th. 90-degree day, tying their all-time record.

 

The RWTT has no BN period around here and elsewhere the next 3 months.   Looks like a solid +2F to +3F for us.   Hot finish to Aug.  and a hot Labor Day weekend.  We'll see.  Always safer to predict AN, since norms are not updated quickly enough to capture a moving target, so we are always comparing to out of date numbers.   1981-2010 has a midpoint that is 23 years old.  We could cut this to 15 years with annual updates.

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Heard on the Portland, Oregon radio station that today will be their 29th. 90-degree day, tying their all-time record.

 

The RWTT has no BN period around here and elsewhere the next 3 months.   Looks like a solid +2F to +3F for us.   Hot finish to Aug.  and a hot Labor Day weekend.  We'll see.  Always safer to predict AN, since norms are not updated quickly enough to capture a moving target, so we are always comparing to out of date numbers.   1981-2010 has a midpoint that is 23 years old.  We could cut this to 15 years with annual updates.

I agree with your thoughts regarding always safer to predict AN, In a recent newsletter Larry Cosgrove mentioned something about the need to factor in global warming in to long range forecast. I've never been a fan of using the 30 year data subset. I think it would be better to compare the current to the entire set of data for a particular site. By doing so it will provide a much better representation of temp trends over a longer period of time. 

I'm also not a fan of using analog years in long term forecasting. And I think the use of analog years is one of the primary reasons why so many long range forecasts fail.

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On 8/15/2018 at 6:04 AM, CIK62 said:

Heard on the Portland, Oregon radio station that today will be their 29th. 90-degree day, tying their all-time record.

 

The RWTT has no BN period around here and elsewhere the next 3 months.   Looks like a solid +2F to +3F for us.   Hot finish to Aug.  and a hot Labor Day weekend.  We'll see.  Always safer to predict AN, since norms are not updated quickly enough to capture a moving target, so we are always comparing to out of date numbers.   1981-2010 has a midpoint that is 23 years old.  We could cut this to 15 years with annual updates.

Keeping it as is doesn’t really impact forecasting though. Models can be programmed to de-emphasize climo, and forecasters should obviously be factoring in overall warming.  Acknowledging the deviation from the norm and whether to lift a finger to address it is a political fight, so why change the record keeping?

Think if you changed the averages to annual updates the only benefactor would be the crowd that is still arguing against the fact that something unusual is occurring.  

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

was winter's back broken when it hit 80 in february? 

Exactly.  High dews are my least favorite weather without a doubt but it is what it is, mother nature is going to do whatever she wants, whenever she wants, just look at Christmas Eve 2016.  That said, you can bet your arse that I'll track the lower dews as they march our way and embrace them when they get here.  Wait, maybe I should just make a lame joke about broke back?  

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

was winter's back broken when it hit 80 in february? 

That's how I've remembered it. Half of my snow fell after 2/21, but it was always quick to melt, and the cold air never returned after that warm stretch. Seven of Feb's final ten days had 50F or warmer highs imby, and I had no more subfreezing highs or single-digit lows post-death ridge. I can't imagine trying to argue that winter took control again after that.

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7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

That's how I've remembered it. Half of my snow fell after 2/21, but it was always quick to melt, and the cold air never returned after that warm stretch. Seven of Feb's final ten days had 50F or warmer highs imby, and I had no more subfreezing highs or single-digit lows post-death ridge. I can't imagine trying to argue that winter took control again after that.

Well that certainly is another look at it.

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On 8/16/2018 at 3:56 PM, Juliancolton said:

That's how I've remembered it. Half of my snow fell after 2/21, but it was always quick to melt, and the cold air never returned after that warm stretch. Seven of Feb's final ten days had 50F or warmer highs imby, and I had no more subfreezing highs or single-digit lows post-death ridge. I can't imagine trying to argue that winter took control again after that.

waaaaaaaahhhhhhhh

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5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

eh? I didn't say it was a bad thing. I think that 80-ish degree day was around the time that @IrishRob17 and I were talking about how tired of winter we were getting.

Sounds like the early end to winter really had a lasting impact on your psyche, my condolences.

I definitely get to a point in each season when I say ok, on to the next 

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4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i have a snowball in the freezer covered in frozen tears

Hold on to it, Forky. Instead of having a contest to guess the date of the first or largest or most intense snow or winter storm, we could have one to guess the date of the biggest bust. The prize is in “F” mans freezer.

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The tropical pattern this summer was tough on businesses at the shore.

Constant rain playing havoc with local summer businesses. @clarkfourakerreports cbsloc.al/2Mprhgw
Most weekends this summer have been punctuated with precipitation, vast amounts of rain that have ruined plans. It has also dampened profits for business that rely on the summer rush.
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NY AQUARIUM has been packed here in Coney Island since the new shark exhibit opened July 01.   Rain did not stop the spectators from coming.   Traffic Cops needed weekdays and weekends at the parking lot entrance/exit.

Do not know about CI in general however.  One Friday night fireworks exhibition was cancelled and some others poorly attended, because of weather uncertainties.

 

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This would disqualify the NYC ASOS.

The NWS needs your help documenting the record breaking rainfall event. We are having trouble finding a rain gauge that captured the event located in a good location, away from bldgs and trees. Anybody know a friend that measured 12+" of rain the other night? #DCFloods#wiwx

View details ·    

The general rule of thumb is that the gauge should be twice as far from an object as that object is tall. We are looking for locations from Middleton and West Madison to Cross Plains. Please help us document a new state 24-hour rainfall record. #DCFloods #wiwx #swiwx
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