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Chinook

2018 E. Pacific Hurricane Season

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Hurricane Willa has made landfall on western Mexico as a major hurricane (105 kt) at about 0102z (7:02PM Mountain Time) This probably has led to some serious flooding concerns. This is a piece of the NHC discussion yesterday afternoon before landfall.

Quote
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 22.2N 106.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds will reach
the coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area
within the next few hours.  Hurricane-force winds will also extend
inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa
moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.

 

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Hurricane Willa has made landfall on western Mexico as a major hurricane (105 kt) at about 0102z (7:02PM Mountain Time) This probably has led to some serious flooding concerns. This is a piece of the NHC discussion yesterday afternoon before landfall.
Hey Chinook! Scroll up, you're a little late to the party.

 

Good to see you posting besides though.

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This English-language news source in Mexico reports severe damage but no known deaths on mainland from Willa:

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/hurricane-willa-makes-landfall/

The reporting from Isla Maria Madre still very vague, as I mentioned in an earlier post, storm surge on that island's populated northeast coast would be mitigated by the slope up from beach to most of the small town's street grid which is mostly above storm surge plus wave action of 20' (and realizing that eye went slightly north so time spent in onshore winds somewhat reduced also). Howling downslope southwest cat-4 winds might have done a lot of damage there however. 

Meanwhile, the news source seems to indicate that loss of human life considerably greater with the heavy rains further east associated with remnants of Vicente moving inland. Severe urban flooding in some part of Mexico City (separate story same link). Also the large lake near Guadalajara has risen two metres above its normal levels. 

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Josh measured 968mb unofficially and got in the eye, so it had a higher pressure than Florence at landfall and still had 120mph winds.

Seems the storm was able to shrink on final approach rather than weaken. And the cloud pattern didn't resemble a storm battling a lot of shear.

 

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https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/remote-hawaiian-island-wiped-off-map-by-hurricane-walaka-french-frigate-shoal-destroyed-storm-surge-monk-seal/115634

Wednesday, October 24, 2018, 11:00 AM - University of Hawaii scientist Chip Fletcher knew East Island was going to be gone one day. He just didn't expect it to be this week.

Researchers confirmed this week that East Island, a remote part of the Hawaiian chain, was washed off the map by Hurricane Walaka, one of the nine tropical cyclones worldwide to reach Category 5 strength in 2018. A news release from the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument confirmed "significant changes" to parts of the French Frigate Shoals in the wake of Walaka, which was a Category 4 hurricane with winds near 220 km/h when it swept across the chain on October 3.

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On 10/25/2018 at 9:08 AM, bluewave said:

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/remote-hawaiian-island-wiped-off-map-by-hurricane-walaka-french-frigate-shoal-destroyed-storm-surge-monk-seal/115634

Wednesday, October 24, 2018, 11:00 AM - University of Hawaii scientist Chip Fletcher knew East Island was going to be gone one day. He just didn't expect it to be this week.

Researchers confirmed this week that East Island, a remote part of the Hawaiian chain, was washed off the map by Hurricane Walaka, one of the nine tropical cyclones worldwide to reach Category 5 strength in 2018. A news release from the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument confirmed "significant changes" to parts of the French Frigate Shoals in the wake of Walaka, which was a Category 4 hurricane with winds near 220 km/h when it swept across the chain on October 3.

Nice to see they got it right. The CNN version said the island is underwater. And then went on about rising sea levels. I’m all for climate change awareness but blatant miss reporting like that does no help the cause.

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
Nice to see they got it right. The CNN version said the island is underwater. And then went on about rising sea levels. I’m all for climate change awareness but blatant miss reporting like that does no help the cause

But who got what right here? Are you are singling out CNN for stating the island is underwater or just sea level rise? As for the the first, the opening line of the Gaurdian video states the island has "disappeared"; and The Weather Network article states "Researchers confirmed this week that East Island, a remote part of the Hawaiian chain, was washed off the map."

 

As for sea level rise, I'm not getting into climate change rhetoric or debate in this thread between the associations of such, especially since nearly every report like this universally mentions it now. But since you seem to be targeting it with respect to the CNN article, it's worth noting that the scientist himself, Dr Chip Fletcher, brought it up: "The probability of occurrences like this goes up with climate change." As it happens, Dr. Fletcher specializes in research on rising sea levels:

Quote
His research focuses on Pacific paleo-sea level history, beach processes, and modeling the impacts of past, present and future sea level rise on island environments and communities.

Look, I understand bad reporting needs to be called out. But I'm not getting the CNN bashing here when every other article is on the same source.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

So... TS Xavier has formed...

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018

For the 22nd time this year, a tropical storm (Xavier) has formed
over the eastern North Pacific. The most recent intensity estimates
from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support increasing the initial
intensity to 35 kt. Xavier is the first tropical storm to reach the
"X" name on the East Pacific namelist since 1992.

No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast. The tropical
storm is strongly sheared from the southwest and convective activity
is limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Although Xavier
should be located over warm waters for the next 5 days, strong
upper-level southwesterly flow will cause high wind shear across the
cyclone. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast that the
tropical storm could strengthen a little more over the next day or
so, while the statistical guidance indicates that Xavier is already
near its peak intensity. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
consensus and shows slight strengthening through the weekend. By
early next week, increased shear and a drier surrounding environment
will likely cause Xavier to weaken and become a remnant low.

It has been difficult to identify the center of Xavier this evening,
but it is estimated that the tropical storm is still moving
generally east-northeastward at around 7 kt. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending
over central Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico should cause Xavier to
turn toward the northeast or north overnight and tomorrow. There has
been a shift in the GFS and its associated regional models, which
now show a farther northeast track of Xavier, closer to the coast of
Mexico. However, a majority of the dynamical models still show the
cyclone turning abruptly westward and away from land while it
weakens by early next week. Out of respect for the ECMWF and its
ensemble, which show a much farther west track for Xavier, the NHC
forecast has been nudged only slightly toward the northeast through
48 h and now lies a little to the west of the TVCE track consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 14.5N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 15.6N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 16.4N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 17.1N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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On 10/26/2018 at 1:35 PM, Windspeed said:

But who got what right here? Are you are singling out CNN for stating the island is underwater or just sea level rise? As for the the first, the opening line of the Gaurdian video states the island has "disappeared"; and The Weather Network article states "Researchers confirmed this week that East Island, a remote part of the Hawaiian chain, was washed off the map."

 

As for sea level rise, I'm not getting into climate change rhetoric or debate in this thread between the associations of such, especially since nearly every report like this universally mentions it now. But since you seem to be targeting it with respect to the CNN article, it's worth noting that the scientist himself, Dr Chip Fletcher, brought it up: "The probability of occurrences like this goes up with climate change." As it happens, Dr. Fletcher specializes in research on rising sea levels:

Look, I understand bad reporting needs to be called out. But I'm not getting the CNN bashing here when every other article is on the same source.

It’s all in the wording. In regards to what actually happened to the island. It was washed away. It’s underwater is an oversimplification. Not every event is directly or fully attributable to climate change. That’s all, I’m not CNN basher at all, what does bother me is stretching the truth to push an agenda, one which I happen to agree with. 

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It’s all in the wording. In regards to what actually happened to the island. It was washed away. It’s underwater is an oversimplification. Not every event is directly or fully attributable to climate change. That’s all, I’m not CNN basher at all, what does bother me is stretching the truth to push an agenda, one which I happen to agree with.

I agree about the bad wording, but my point was that the majority of outlets essentially reported the same thing. The attributed scientist was using the island as a laboratory to study sea level rise. Obviously the island is underwater directly due to the storm's effects, but the particular scientist involved is stating that as sea level rises, similar events will be more commonplace. I.e. it won't take as much to overwhelm flat land on atolls and surface bed rock at sea level, especially when hit by storms. I'm not sure if that is why CNN focused on the climate change bit or due to scientist involved, but they weren't alone.

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