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2018 E. Pacific Hurricane Season


Chinook
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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

 

Haha that's an awesome typo!

 

Recon is getting close.

 

Edit: Actually, scratch that. They were en route and even descending to an operational altitude, then suddenly did a 180° and are heading back over the Mexican mainland. Perhaps something is wrong?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Yikes... the 5pm NHC disco on Willa has a bit more detail as to why the HH aircraft had to turn around:


Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa continues to exhibit an impressive presentation in satellite
imagery, however the small eye has become cloud filled this
afternoon and and earlier microwave data indicated that an
eyewall replacement cycle had begun.  Subjective and objective
data T-numbers are a little lower than this morning, and the
initial intensity has been set at 135 kt for this advisory.  The
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to
Willa around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain
bands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding
some of the onboard equipment.

The hurricane has been moving due northward today at about 7 kt.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous
advisory as Willa is currently moving around the western portion of
a deep-layer ridge.  An approaching shortwave trough should turn
Willa north-northeastward, then northward toward the west-central
coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and the hurricane is forecast to make
landfall within the hurricane warning area between San Blas and
Mazatlan Tuesday afternoon or evening.  There are still some model
differences regarding the timing of landfall, and the NHC track
forecast is near the various consensus aids to account for these
variations in forward speed.

The rapid intensification phase that Willa has gone through since
its formation on Saturday appears to have ended now that an eyewall
replacement has begun.  Although the hurricane is forecast to remain
in a low to moderate wind shear environment and over warm SSTs
through tonight, some weakening is likely due to internal dynamics
of the eyewall replacement.  Increasing southwesterly shear on
Tuesday is likely to cause some additional weakening, and the NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly, however, Willa is
forecast to remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall.
Rapid weakening will occur Tuesday night as Willa moves over the
mountainous terrain of Mexico, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate on Wednesday.  Moisture from the remnants of Willa are
forecast to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and
portions of Texas where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected
midweek.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern
Mexico near the path of Willa.  Residents should rush preparations
to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area
along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa.  Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 19.7N 107.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 23.9N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1800Z 26.2N 101.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

 

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The Islas Marias have only one island with people living on it, that's Isla Maria Madre, and the population is just over one thousand. They almost all live on the northeast side of the island. As the eye of this hurricane is predicted to be nearby late tonight, I hope people there have been directed to shelters. The lat-long of the small town on the island is 21.65 N 106.65 W. It does appear that any storm surge would only inundate a small fraction of the buildings in the town as it is built on a sloping plain rising above 50 feet asl before most of the streets in the town. There is a federal jail on the island. 

Then in another day or so, the eye is predicted to come ashore on the mainland near a small town, Playas Novilero, which looks rather similar to Mexico Beach. I'm hoping that predictions of steady weakening prove to be true as that small town is on a flat coastline. If the storm were to swerve more to the north it would come close to Mazatlan, or to the right, San Blas, which in any case will get the stronger winds and some storm surge if landfall is to its north. San Blas has a population of about ten thousand. Inland to the east is Tepic, a larger town.  In between there and the predicted landfall, just a few very small villages located several miles inland and an uninhabited stretch of flat coastline, some farmlands and some mangrove swamps in the general threat zone. This could hit land in a place where there would be almost no direct impact on people at all, if it hits south of Playas Novilero and more than 40 miles north of San Blas. 

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Still forecast to make landfall on the Mexico mainland as a major hurricane, though obviously it could landfall on Las Islas Marias first.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230234
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa's eye is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an
SSMIS overpass from 0049 UTC showed a remnant inner eye along the
northern edge of a larger outer eyewall that has taken shape over
the past few hours. The initial intensity has been lowered to 125 kt
based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from
TAFB. Given that the eyewall replacement cycle is well underway and
that moderate southwesterly shear now affecting the hurricane is
expected to increase, continued gradual weakening is forecast
through landfall, and the new NHC intensity forecast through 24
hours is near or a bit above the FSU Superensemble. Despite the
forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall, and will bring life-
threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas
Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico on
Tuesday. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
Moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to spread
northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas where a
swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.

The initial motion estimate remains northward, or 360/08. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Willa is expected to
gradually recurve as it is steered by a large mid-level ridge
centered to the east and a shortwave trough approaching from the
northwest. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly
left of the previous one due to the initial position and motion and
lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope near the HCCA
consensus aid. There continue to be differences in the forward speed
of the cyclone as it approaches the coast, and the NHC forecast
remains close to the forward speed of the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 20.5N 107.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 23.0N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1200Z 25.3N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

 

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Despite a larger eyewall (ERC is finished) reported by recon, Willa had struggled over night to suppress lingering convection associated with the decaying inner vortex. Also 10-15kt of analyzed southwesterly shear may have also been encroaching upon Willa's core entraining dry air and prolonging the replacement cycle process. That being said, there does appear to be some clearing out if the eye now on visible and Willa is moving over an area of 28-29°C SSTs. Some reorganization and deep convection of the new eye could allow a more steady state of intensity into landfall versus rapid weakening. Trough interactions are tricky. Regardless if Willa is still a major hurricane or category 2 at landfall, the windfield has grown and risk of surge remains. Areas of that part of the Mexican coastline are rather flat despite the nearby mountainous terrain. Speaking of, flash flooding due to prolonged southerly flow and orographic enhancement is already occurring in the higher elevations to the southeast in Colima.f5f4a0cc315fdd875ca6b89e73284c28.gif

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For posterity, this was the last VDM on second pass a few hours ago. There will be no more flights into Willa. Of note was the 26 NM eye and the absence of an inner eyeband. Also the new eye was open to the SW at the time, typical of southwesterly encroachment of strong mid level flow.

000
URPN12 KNHC 231641
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP242018
A. 23/16:14:00Z
B. 21.53 deg N 106.80 deg W
C. 700 mb 2802 m
D. 966 mb
E. 115 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C26
H. 89 kt
I. 138 deg 16 nm 16:09:00Z
J. 231 deg 109 kt
K. 139 deg 15 nm 16:09:30Z
L. 97 kt
M. 313 deg 9 nm 16:16:30Z
N. 057 deg 91 kt
O. 313 deg 16 nm 16:18:30Z
P. 13 C / 3064 m
Q. 15 C / 3047 m
R. NA / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF309 0224E WILLA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 109 KT 139 / 15 NM 16:09:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 313 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

 

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That impressive outflow channel, helping vacate the upper levels and the higher OHC are offsetting the 25kts shear. Strong and continuous bursts of convection due to increased instability are doing the trick. Looks like it's at least steady state until landfall.

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That impressive outflow channel, helping vacate the upper levels and the higher OHC are offsetting the 25kts shear. Strong and continuous bursts of convection due to increased instability are doing the trick. Looks like it's at least steady state until landfall.

SW mid-to-upper flow may be 20-25 kts but given current bending NNE to NE motion at 10-12 kts, shear is being offset somewhat and analysis is more around 15 kts. It is increasing with time but so is Willa's NE motion. Granted, that is still substantial shear, but Willa is managing ok against it. We're quickly approaching landfall in a few hours though so it's probably going to remain classified a major hurricane in advisory regardless.

 

Edit: My bad, that particular MW pass was old. The recent AMSR2 missed. We may not get another good pass before landfall.

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Apparently there's no radar on the west coast of Mexico anywhere within range. Satellite imagery makes me think the landfall will be between Playas Novilero and Teacapan. The former is a beachfront town but a little more spread out inland than Mexico Beach was. Teacapan is basically a shanty town by its appearance on google earth, and is about a mile up an estuary from the open Pacific. It is almost entirely one-storey stucco houses and a few stores, would expect that a cat-3 hurricane direct hit would do a lot of fixable damage (mostly roofs blown off, trees down, there are a lot more trees there than in Playas Novilero). Storm surge there might not be much of an issue with the estuary. Hopefully the landfall is far enough north of Playas Novilero that it does not get the maximum surge or winds available. The country in between the two towns, which are perhaps 15 miles apart, looks to be open farmland mostly with a minimal population, so if that's ground zero the human impacts may be reduced. I tried to get some impressions of what had taken place on Isla Maria Madre which clearly was in the forward portion of the eyewall, but facebook chat sites for that community have been taken over by Texans talking about how much rain they might get from remnants of Willa, and also how it might impact the caravan (minimal I would think, other rainfall events are closer to their position in eastern Mexico anyway). 

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Last advisory for Willa before landfall:

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 232343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
600 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO...
...DO NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE SINCE
HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE AS THE EYE PASSES...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 106.0 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected tonight.  On the forecast track,
the eye of Willa will make landfall along the coast of west-central
Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next hour or so.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected before
Willa crosses the coast of Mexico.  Very rapid weakening is expected
after landfall, and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the
south of where the center of Willa makes landfall.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will gradually subside in Las Islas
Marias. Hurricane conditions will continue to spread into the
hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this
evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

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000
WTPZ64 KNHC 240104
TCUEP4

Hurricane Willa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
700 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...CATEGORY 3 WILLA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ISLA DEL BOSQUE, SINALOA...

At 700 PM MDT, satellite images indicate that Willa has made
landfall near Isla Del Bosque, Sinaloa, or about 10 miles (15 km)
south of Escuinapa.  Maximum winds at landfall were estimated to be
120 mph (195 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 965 mb (28.50
inches).

A Mexican weather station near Marismas Nacionales recently reported
a wind gust to 95 mph (153 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 PM MDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 105.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

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6 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

I'm impressed with how well Willa is holding together now that its inland where TCs rapidly dissipate. More symmetrical than yesterday evening. I don't think that predicted wind shear did anything due to the increasing motion and angle of Willa.

The first 15 miles of coast is flat islands and bays.   So it's really hitting the hills now.

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I wouldn't base rapid deterioration from this point out on anything other than the fact that there are 8-12k ft coastal ranges and volcanic peaks that will shred a low-level vorticity. Even the most powerful cyclones get ripped to shreds rapidly. The mid level circulation will probably hold together for a while though and even the remnant low will eventually make its way into Texas to develop into a frontal low.

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Papin had some interesting comments on why Willa seemed to hold together so well prior to landfall despite the lack of modeling support.



My thoughts are that Intensity modeling was subpar with Willa throughout its life cycle. Before rapid intendification Sunday night, the HWRF runs struggled to get Willa much below 950 mb until it was initialized much lower based on ADT analysis. Obviously when it bombed out to Cat 5, the environment was only going to temporarily support that intensity, despite the inevitable ERC. Though maximum potential was short-lived, even its decay and rapid weakening was overdone. Yes, Cat 5 to 966 mb Cat 3 is significant weakening, but that wasn't unexpected. What seemed more unexpected was how that weakening trend abated and Willa leveled off to a steady state, if not perhaps even some slight restrengthening based on satellites estimates prior to landfall; where as intensity modeling wanted to rapidly weaken Willa much further prior to landfall.
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Hurricane Willa has made landfall on western Mexico as a major hurricane (105 kt) at about 0102z (7:02PM Mountain Time) This probably has led to some serious flooding concerns. This is a piece of the NHC discussion yesterday afternoon before landfall.

Quote

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 22.2N 106.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds will reach
the coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area
within the next few hours.  Hurricane-force winds will also extend
inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa
moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.

 

EXlB4Pg.jpg

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Hurricane Willa has made landfall on western Mexico as a major hurricane (105 kt) at about 0102z (7:02PM Mountain Time) This probably has led to some serious flooding concerns. This is a piece of the NHC discussion yesterday afternoon before landfall.
Hey Chinook! Scroll up, you're a little late to the party.

 

Good to see you posting besides though.

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This English-language news source in Mexico reports severe damage but no known deaths on mainland from Willa:

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/hurricane-willa-makes-landfall/

The reporting from Isla Maria Madre still very vague, as I mentioned in an earlier post, storm surge on that island's populated northeast coast would be mitigated by the slope up from beach to most of the small town's street grid which is mostly above storm surge plus wave action of 20' (and realizing that eye went slightly north so time spent in onshore winds somewhat reduced also). Howling downslope southwest cat-4 winds might have done a lot of damage there however. 

Meanwhile, the news source seems to indicate that loss of human life considerably greater with the heavy rains further east associated with remnants of Vicente moving inland. Severe urban flooding in some part of Mexico City (separate story same link). Also the large lake near Guadalajara has risen two metres above its normal levels. 

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