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June 2018 Obs


jburns
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It's looking like today could be round 2 (big change from yesterday).

NAM shows the QLCS across OK moving ESE throughout the day and re-intensifying. Could get interesting with more strong winds and the already saturated grounds, given the trees already took a heck of a beating today. 

image.thumb.png.5dda4d90c57145c10aabf71fd7719e01.png

image.thumb.png.b92ea65cc4a38ebb74520f1204447ab4.png

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I picked up a quick quarter of an inch around 0330 this morning from a fast mover. Thunder and lightning from an embedded t-storm cell about 10 miles west of me, but no lightning strikes near me. The day has started out very humid. The pool is still bath water warm at 86° this morning after reaching 90° yesterday afternoon. Looks like a warm and busy weekend. Hope everyone has a great one!!

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4 hours ago, Powerball said:

Pretty active day on Friday across a lot of the SE, including several tornado reports in AL. There were about 27 reports out of Metro Atlanta.

image.png.5f0308bfb2b821cafd2fdd159d0e59f7.png

 

I was watching the lightning strikes in real time on my laptop yesterday. Petersburg, VA to Newport News, VA was rocking with over 100 strikes a minute at one point.

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9 hours ago, Powerball said:

It's looking like today could be round 2 (big change from yesterday).

NAM shows the QLCS across OK moving ESE throughout the day and re-intensifying. Could get interesting with more strong winds and the already saturated grounds, given the trees already took a heck of a beating today. 

This does seem like it would hold together for some time. 

Link to radar animation for now; it is too large to embed!

A few hours later; a more recent radar animation saved to view here: https://images2.imgbox.com/64/30/iarK5ucI_o.gif

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For the second day in a row GSP topped out at 88 with dewpoints a notch lower in mid-upper 60s (instead of 70s) and a breeze, all in all not terrible. Broke the string of consecutive days of 90+ of 8. 

I noticed excessive heat warnings for the greater Charleston area tomorrow with actual temps around 100 and HI of 110+!

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image.png.715e9eb3d37072c0513a338910fc2efc.pngMD 856 graphic 

   Mesoscale Discussion 0856
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0737 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

   Areas affected...extreme northeast Texas...much of
   Arkansas...northwest Mississippi...and far western Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...

   Valid 241237Z - 241430Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing across western Arkansas will
   continue to pose a risk for large hail and strong, gusty winds as
   they move into central Arkansas. The environment ahead of this
   thunderstorm cluster suggests that a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   may be needed east of the current watch.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived mesoscale convective system (MCS) with
   leading edge bow-echo continues across western Arkansas. Recent
   radar trends suggest an uptick in intensity as the MCS is moving
   into central Arkansas. Surface dewpoints in the 70s and diurnal
   heating will allow for continued destabilization ahead of this
   feature. Thus, most-unstable CAPE values currently around 2000 J/kg
   should only increase through the morning. Additionally, this area is
   on the southern fringe of the better deep-layer shear, which will
   only act to further thunderstorm organization and MCS maintenance.
   Thus, the severe threat may continue through the morning and begin
   to impact areas outside of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211. The region
   will continue to be monitored for the potential of an additional
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch to the east of watch 211.

   ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/24/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33509557 35709417 36099164 34938954 33099090 33509557 
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Updated SPC outlook:

image.thumb.png.c0b394e9486ac1034cff6d1917195f64.png

SPC AC 241300

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

 ...Mid-South to Tennessee Valley...
   A well-organized and long-lived quasi-linear MCS continues to
   persist across Arkansas early this morning, likely with aid of a
   trailing MCV across far northeast Oklahoma. Various
   convection-allowing models including overnight HRRR runs have tended
   to erroneously predict a weakening of this convection. It is
   plausible that this MCS persists and even re-intensifies within a
   moist and diurnally destabilizing boundary layer. At the very least,
   the parent MCV will likely provide favorable forcing for ascent, as
   well an enhanced belt of mid-level winds/deep-layer shear, for
   severe-conducive development into the afternoon as it spreads
   eastward across the region. Damaging winds should be the most common
   concern, but severe hail and even some tornado risk may exist
   through early evening. 
..Guyer/Marsh.. 06/24/2018

 

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7 hours ago, Powerball said:

Yet again, it could be a nowcasting situation as far as severe weather.

Pretty organized MCS coming out of OK right now, diving ESE. The difference this morning is there's no convection ahead of it to disrupt it. 

Yes; there was quite an intense presentation on radar, it is one of the more astonishing features of spring and summer weather here especially considering that they will sometimes go offshore and become tropical, yet they do not always develop a circulation on land.  This one seems to have done so!


https://images2.imgbox.com/44/a1/gfnvArrY_o.gif

https://images2.imgbox.com/cc/83/KlqbOgCZ_o.gif

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1 hour ago, calm_days said:

Yes; there was quite an intense presentation on radar, it is one of the more astonishing features of spring and summer weather here especially considering that they will sometimes go offshore and become tropical, yet they do not always develop a circulation on land.  This one seems to have done so!


https://images2.imgbox.com/44/a1/gfnvArrY_o.gif

https://images2.imgbox.com/cc/83/KlqbOgCZ_o.gif

I've seen them do so a few times in the Midwest.

When the conditions are right though (shear, steering flow, etc.), they do their own thing entirely when it comes to the evolution/track of convection and all bets are off in terms of forecasts.

 

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Got hit with more rounds of storms today, including a severe line of storms during the late afternoon hours. It produced an epic shelf cloud too. The airport reported a 45 MPH gust from the outflow boundary.

Still, no relief from the heat. Between the storms, we hit 92*F twice (once by 12:30pm, and the 2nd time around 4:30pm) with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s.

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Got slammed yet again with severe t'storms. Difference today is they came through around 1:30pm, thus ending our 90*F. We managed to soar to 89*F before crashing into the upper 60s / lower 70s for the rest of the afternoon with stratiform rains and occasional thunder.

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