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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, kdxken said: 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ Highlights...

 - Periods of wet weather and breezy winds Monday and Wednesday
 - A cooler pattern overall throughout early June

Crappity crap crap...

Oh did I mention crap? 

Weekend...

Going to be watching closely for the repeat of any rapidly deepening
closed lows given the pattern addressed in the OVERVIEW above. Can`t
rule out continued weather issues of cool, wet conditions along with
breezy winds and lower visibility. A dismal pattern for early June.

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Jesus. New NAM even more ludicrously cold. Looks like a rain event more typical of early November 

Crazy to see maximum temps in the upper 30s to mid-40s in CNE/NNE at 21z Monday evening.  This is a cold Monday afternoon/evening on the latest NAM.  I'll take the over.

 

MkGs1UN.png

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How much of that is thru monday only.

Yes its gonna be an ugly day, Wednesday Is Lookin similiar

This is thru 8am Wed, so I'm guessing it would be mostly Monday's.  Here's the AFD.

Quote 

Monday...

A widespread soaking rainfall with unseasonably cool
temperatures are on tap for Monday. Coastal low pressure will
result in an easterly low level jet 2-3 standard deviations
above normal with Pwats reaching 1.5+ inches across the
southeast New England coast. There is also impressive
frontogenesis around the 850 mb layer for early June standards.
The result will be rain heavy at times with amounts on the
order of 0.75 to 1.50 inches. It is possible for some localized
higher amounts of 2+ inches across parts of southeast New
England, where marginal elevated instability may allow for a
rumble or two of thunder. Therefore...we may be dealing with
some poor drainage urban street flooding. Greatest risk across
southeast New England given highest Pwats/marginal elevated
instability.

In addition to the soaking rainfall Monday...high temperatures
will be well below normal. Highs are only expected to reach the
lower to middle 50s in many locations and it is possible that
portions of the interior high terrain do not break 50. Record
low high temperatures will be challenged on Monday. Gusty east
to northeast wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are also expected along
the coast making for a miserable day to be outdoors.

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Some personal perspective on cold matters at hand ...

I wanna use HFD, CT, ..because it's displaced far enough inland to spare oceanic contamination for the purposes of this.

Today is tricky for that standard climate locale, as the low was apparently 59 F, a solid +6 for the normal low - however, I do wonder if saturation and erosion factors might bootleg a low closer to the moments before midnight, this evening. Assuming for the moment that does not happen, and the machine numbers average of 70F verifies as the high... their average on the day ends up being 0.

I find that interesting ... because to a high 'degree' of confidence I can assure you that perception on the date would be different if you asked Kevin, or any otherwise normal person from those walks of life down thatta way.  But weather psyche isn't what I'm after, presently.

Now.., suppose the high temperature on Monday indeed stymies to the low 50s ... some 23F below the normal (~) high of 76.  If the low temperature across the diurnal range falls into the upper 40s as most machine numbers average ... we can assume for the sake of discussion, about -6 below normal for the low temperature, tomorrow. 

Thus, ~ (-6F + (-20F) ) /2  = -13F for the average and departure on the day.

June 1 (using HFD, CT) rang in with a +9F departure.  June 2nd, +14F.  June 3rd (est) 0F. June 4th (tomorrow), -13F

That four-day average is exactly +2.5F, but since some of these are closely estimated... we can safely state the approximation. 

Already .. some reader's eyes are rollin' ...mainly because somewhere rattling around in their mind is a denied reality that they don't have any justification for grousing.  For others, they are taking a more scientific approach to their bitching and complaining, by arguing that the cool pattern won't be finished as of end-of-diurnal-cycle, midnight, Monday night... And to that point alone, I would not argue.

However, just keep in mind ... "June" doesn't mean anything. Nor does "May".  These are arbitrary boundaries in time, blocks cut out by humans, because humans like nice, neat, packaged data from which to engage in various sciences and introspection ... Which unfortunately, nature doesn't work that way - it is messy. Thus, by "packaging" .. we runs risk of obfuscating the truer nature of any given system being studied. If you thus, justly expand the data to include the entire last week of May, and these four days listed above, then as a best guess, include the machine numbers for Thursday through next Sunday... at least for HFD, they will be solidly above normal. 

Although adding machine numbers to atone for the end of this week offers something less than ideally factual to this discourse, that should not fairly be used to attempt any abasing argument.  Otherwise, it is interesting how numbers/facts ...or even approximate facts often compare to perception, and how often the two part company. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM looks a little better for Tue.

It does ... huh...

In fact, if those moisture profiles are right - that much implied sun - it's a worthy bet it ends up warmer than machine numbers, too.  The FRH grid has Logan +4 or +5 C at 850 mb, on a west wind... heh, 66 seems a bit conservative.  we'll see

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It does ... huh...

In fact, if those moisture profiles are right - that much implied sun - it's a worthy bet it ends up warmer than machine numbers, too.  The FRH grid has Logan +4 or +5 C at 850 mb, on a west wind... heh, 66 seems a bit conservative.  we'll see

Turns the lower level flow briefly westerly for the interior too before the schit NErly garbage returns for Wed. It's probably wrong, but let's see what the globals do. Maybe we can salvage it a bit.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Some personal perspective on cold matters at hand ...

I wanna use HFD, CT, ..because it's displaced far enough inland to spare oceanic contamination for the purposes of this.

Today is tricky for that standard climate locale, as the low was apparently 59 F, a solid +6 for the normal low - however, I do wonder if saturation and erosion factors might bootleg a low closer to the moments before midnight, this evening. Assuming for the moment that does not happen, and the machine numbers average of 70F verifies as the high... their average on the day ends up being 0.

I find that interesting ... because to a high 'degree' of confidence I can assure you that perception on the date would be different if you asked Kevin, or any otherwise normal person from those walks of life down thatta way.  But weather psyche isn't what I'm after, presently.

Now.., suppose the high temperature on Monday indeed stymies to the low 50s ... some 23F below the normal (~) high of 76.  If the low temperature across the diurnal range falls into the upper 40s as most machine numbers average ... we can assume for the sake of discussion, about -6 below normal for the low temperature, tomorrow. 

Thus, ~ (-6F + (-20F) ) /2  = -13F for the average and departure on the day.

June 1 (using HFD, CT) rang in with a +9F departure.  June 2nd, +14F.  June 3rd (est) 0F. June 4th (tomorrow), -13F

That four-day average is exactly +2.5F, but since some of these are closely estimated... we can safely state the approximation. 

Already .. some reader's eyes are rollin' ...mainly because somewhere rattling around in their mind is a denied reality that they don't have any justification for grousing.  For others, they are taking a more scientific approach to their bitching and complaining, by arguing that the cool pattern won't be finished as of end-of-diurnal-cycle, midnight, Monday night... And to that point alone, I would not argue.

However, just keep in mind ... "June" doesn't mean anything. Nor does "May".  These are arbitrary boundaries in time, blocks cut out by humans, because humans like nice, neat, packaged data from which to engage in various sciences and introspection ... Which unfortunately, nature doesn't work that way - it is messy. Thus, by "packaging" .. we runs risk of obfuscating the truer nature of any given system being studied. If you thus, justly expand the data to include the entire last week of May, and these four days listed above, then as a best guess, include the machine numbers for Thursday through next Sunday... at least for HFD, they will be solidly above normal. 

Although adding machine numbers to atone for the end of this week offers something less than ideally factual to this discourse, that should not fairly be used to attempt any abasing argument.  Otherwise, it is interesting how numbers/facts ...or even approximate facts often compare to perception, and how often the two part company. 

I get what you’re trying to articulate here. It’s a couple cooler east flow , Canadian HP drain and rain induced days interspersed in an overall AN pattern. Anywhere away from the ocean anyway. 

The common lay person will remember the HHH wx Of yesterday and the 70-75 today.  feeling like 80 in the sun and then the 75-80 end of week / weekend and sort of gloss over the 2-3 upcoming days. They come during the work week, so no one will care that much other than for sports related activities and lawnwork. 

All that being said, the 7-14 day pattern looks like zonal , dry west flow, with 80+ type days inland and cooler sea breezes at beaches. Overall summer is here after this early / midweek stretch 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I get what you’re trying to articulate here. It’s a couple cooler east flow , Canadian HP drain and rain induced days interspersed in an overall AN pattern. Anywhere away from the ocean anyway. 

The common lay person will remember the HHH wx Of yesterday and the 70-75 today.  feeling like 80 in the sun and then the 75-80 end of week / weekend and sort of gloss over the 2-3 upcoming days. They come during the work week, so no one will care that much other than for sports related activities and lawnwork. 

All that being said, the 7-14 day pattern looks like zonal , dry west flow, with 80+ type days inland and cooler sea breezes at beaches. Overall summer is here after this early / midweek stretch 

Agreed...  and kidding aside, the days really have been favoring outdoor activities and well...summer. 

There's a bit of a psycho-babble component tinting perceptions, perhaps, but by and large the numbers are what they are - it's been an above normal result, and seeing as the results are keyed into the pattern at large..heh. Oops. 

We'll see where things go, but the (bold) above isn't a terrible impression at this time.

However, I do wonder if a significant heat wave is in the offing out in the midwest/Lakes...  Not sure if folks are paying attention but the Euro and GGEM are creating an impressive prelude, with a trapping ridge over the west containing the genesis of some obscenely elevated 850 mb temperatures.  In fact, the Euro has 40 C 850 mb temperatures garlanding the Colorado elevations around day seven.  Soon there after ... both models wiggle the large scale synoptics which then sets off a bit of a Sonoran/EML expulsion there after toward the Lakes. 

That could all be real?  or not...But, what's left of the teleconnector correlations for this late in the year ... do support some kind of eastern heights recovering post this early week. That's how big heat gets transported... cap, build, release.  It probably gets shunted prior to getting this far east if all that transpires... just because of base-line arguments but.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems early June does that somewhat often on Washington. Wonder what the rockpile Puts up for average snow (if any) in June. Bet They seen A few sizable storms.

Mt Washington June snow average 1".  Most 8.1" in 1959.  Most in 24 hours is 5.1"  1988

       
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I'm actually waiting for the less rain shoe to fall on tomorrow, too.

The Euro was favoring the farther S low in that elongated surface pressure pattern it was moving south of the region. The NAM kinda sorta trended that way, and actually .. lopped 1/3" of the totals for eastern zones on this 12z run this morning. 

It's not uncommon for the NAM to start shirking QPF < 36 hours out ... each run stealing back .25" ... many a 'major' winter storms end up light to moderate snow totals when it does that, and well.. who would argue this ordeal tomorrow doesn't look like a winter event that happens to be mapped over a summer atmosphere. 

Anyway, it's also moving things right along now.  This is now looking like a 6 hour rain wall followed by mist -

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Some early June freezes last night in VT that snuck in under the radar.

Averill COOP and Island Pond Airport both had 31F this morning.  

A whole bunch of mid-30s too, including MVL here with 37F.  

I'd think parts of NNH and WME might have had some isolated freezes too.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I don’t know, doesn’t seem very summery to me for awhile with each diving trough and Canadian HP nosing in. Sure some sunny days may be in the 70s, but seems like prolonged 80+ will be awhile. Each model has 546 thicknesses nosing into New England more than once. That’s not summer.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know, doesn’t seem very summery to me for awhile with each diving trough and Canadian HP nosing in. Sure some sunny days may be in the 70s, but seems like prolonged 80+ will be awhile. Each model has 546 thicknesses nosing into New England more than once. That’s not summer.

Lol. Next weekend inland is near 80

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Some early June freezes last night in VT that snuck in under the radar.

Averill COOP and Island Pond Airport both had 31F this morning.  

A whole bunch of mid-30s too, including MVL here with 37F.  

I'd think parts of NNH and WME might have had some isolated freezes too.

Fortunately, not us. 37F

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

A tarmac? For a day? Deep summer.

Ha, you say prolonged 80+ doesn't seem to be here and his response is to laugh and make it seem like some deep river valley torch sites *might* get near 80F. 

He basically agreed with you but spun it a different direction, lol... all while knowing his house probably maxes at 74-75F, which is still great weather.  Who needs 80s unless you are at the beach?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, you say prolonged 80+ doesn't seem to be here and his response is to laugh and make it seem like some deep river valley torch sites *might* get near 80F. 

He basically agreed with you but spun it a different direction, lol... all while knowing his house probably maxes at 74-75F, which is still great weather.  Who needs 80s unless you are at the beach?

You’re right. It just looks chilly and BN. Jackets all summer 

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