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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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4 hours ago, Mips said:

 Cranes in Ipswich.  This is taken at the southern end.  Most people are bunched off the ends of the 4 boardwalks from the parking lots but there are miles that look like this.  Taken on the hottest day last week.  I don't remember if it was the weekend but the primary lot was 75% full.

Cranes from the southern end june 22.jpg

Yeah crane is nice and sceneic, but the water is super frosty on the North shore. I dunno....after visiting Hawaii, Florida and Mexico yada yada and seeing what real beaches are with no rocks and pleasant temp water anything around here kind of loses its appeal, especially after paying $25 to park and sitting in traffic then sitting on top of people. Outer cape is cool don't get me wrong, but the rocks and undertoe and ankle shrinking water ain't great. They're not all sand like ginxy said the waterline is often rocks.  Anyway I'm way way off topic. 

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Not a huge beach guy given my fair skin (mother has had several instances of skin cancer, so she was super cautious whatever we did outside as kids), but sand beach at Acadia was incredible and probably the top beach I’ve been to in New England. Huge waves and the water was ice cold, which makes it 10x better. Also had several Dolphins swim maybe 15 yards from shore. Cool experience 

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5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not a huge beach guy given my fair skin (mother has had several instances of skin cancer, so she was super cautious whatever we did outside as kids), but sand beach at Acadia was incredible and probably the top beach I’ve been to in New England. Huge waves and the water was ice cold, which makes it 10x better. Also had several Dolphins swim maybe 15 yards from shore. Cool experience 

Acadia is stunning 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I meant backed off from the BD. lol

This is longish...sorry, but ...yup. 'Noticed that 06z NAM continued along that "trend" as well... Two cycles?  hardly a trend, no, but... stepping back; the NAM is notorious for engineering flies in the ointment beyond 48 hours or so, that are vaguely supported by other guidance (but just enough)... to giving pause and ponder... Then, as soon as it senses one or two suckers who actually wanted it to happen and are posting like we don't actually sense that (eh hm..) they really do, it Judas' their agenda in the short term. 

Seriously though...there is something going on that could chill the coastal zones - relatively speaking - that may not even be a BD.  Firstly, we have hammered over and over the weak/light wind fields during this mid to late weekend. Obvious, that means with intense heating initially that creates a buoyancy -based discontinuity and blah blah ... the cold oceanic marine layer comes west... (this sermon isn't directed at you, personally ... for the general reader)

But... I'm suggesting a more synoptic scale feed-back, possibly triggered by the heat its self.  If we look at the Euro surface pressure pattern up-down the MA/NE regions (Sunday) combined, you can see a reasonably coherent impression of what actually looks like a thermal trough/low formulation ...centered somewhere over SE PA ...NJ (~). 

It's 'reasonably coherent' ...  that doesn't mean four isobars closed off with winter storm watches or anything...so hopefully people know how out read this.  The result, there is a SW flow over Maryland (ish) and a due S flow resulting near the Jersey shore/S of LI and with slightly higher pressures lingering off-shore S. NE... those tendencies then back toward the SE up along our coastal locales...  Again, doing so "lightly"

But that's all that is required to f-up heat. Heat is among ...well, is, the most fragile of all atmospheric entities... very susceptible to perturbation-influences ...

Anyway, the Euro has no reflection of this stuff at 850 mb ...and wouldn't... because these 'heat lows' are shallow phenomenon, perhaps 100 mb deep.  But, they too are fragile. What seems to usurp that set up is when we pop ahead to 00z Tuesday (8 pm Monday evening)... the front up in Canada has managed to squeeze to a position just NW of the ST L Seaway, and that transitively induces more offshore flow/mixing ...talking small mph increases but that's enough. It obliterates that tendency/mass-balancing backed flow along the SNE coast.  It's really a slow moving stagnant heat with such weak pressure fields these subordinate processes become more dominant for a day.

12z NAM (hate to say...) is going to be interesting for this tedious course -

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Only got down to 60F last night... High launching point for the mountain valleys where 60+ mins are luckily fairly rare.

Week of 90s coming up. All signs point to it. Then all signs point to COC weather returning. Today is spectacular. We roast we toast

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Only got down to 60F last night... High launching point for the mountain valleys where 60+ mins are luckily fairly rare.

66 here ... I'm all of 200' elevation (or so..) as the town I live in is midriff Nashoba Valley area...part of the same geology of the Merrimack Valley really... Anyway, the idea that it was 60 there and 66 here, for all intents and purposes ...really the same, atones to the air mass vertical depth perhaps.

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So ... the short version of that arm-chair quarterbacking above ... I think tomorrow we could observe a pulse of cooling coming into eastern zones regardless of whether there are BD mechanics involved or not.

The gradient is weak, and with a thermal trough presented in the total pressure pattern in the upper MA ... we benefit by having the llv winds bend back toward the E up our way - albeit light. But that's enough...

The 500mb (as an afterthought) ...is rising heights through this entire three days ...well four, now through Wednesday.. That overall tendency for DVM/compression and that tends to try and offset displacing frontal structures underneath ...but that really includes atmospheric motion of any kind. That's probably the ony reason why we don't see 20 kt explosion carving inland replete with strata tomorrow.  Hyperbole aside, it may limit the total distance inland ... 

ALB... wow.  How many times do you see a 2-meter potential to 37 C with a wind direction of 130 degrees there ... 

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

66 here ... I'm all of 200' elevation (or so..) as the town I live in is midriff Nashoba Valley area...part of the same geology of the Merrimack Valley really... Anyway, the idea that it was 60 there and 66 here, for all intents and purposes ...really the same, atones to the air mass vertical depth perhaps.

Yeah it's a definitely a warm and humid airmass when the radiator locations have their mins similar to everyone else on a clear night.

Even SLK which has had a few freezes this June was only 59F.

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it's a definitely a warm and humid airmass when the radiator locations have their mins similar to everyone else on a clear night.

Even SLK which has had a few freezes this June was only 59F.

Wow... perhaps somewhat indicative when normally, circumstantially cold(hot) climo sites are muted - the air mass is 'all powerful' in lay-sense. 

It'll be interesting to revisit the high temperature distribution over NW NNE/SNE ...et al.. come 5 or 6 pm. 

We jumped to 86/71 here as of 1/2 hr ago ...but have been stuck there... At the time, I thought we'd be 90 by 10... but, still just 86 by 10. 

There is an index finger saying(s) for seeking the elusive, coveted 100 ... "90 by 90" ... the other is "10 after 10"  ...Not hard to visualize why either are hallmarks... It's not as hard to gather up 10 clicks post 9 or 10 am, when you got 6 solid hours of f-with heating with errant bs... ie, wiggle room.   Curiously... these metrics suggest the GFS machine numbers are better supported for places like FIT out along RT 2; 97!  ... NAM has 93 there.  Haven't looked at MOS up your way -

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29 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

60 down here as well....lower than I was expecting but I think the next few mornings will be higher.

Follow the DP on that one...  We had a modestly dry air mass waft across the region yesterday.  Dawn DPs in the mid 60s to near 70 or so yesterday morning... dried out into the mid to upper 50s during the day. As night wore on ... modest radiational cooling helped bottom out.  We were also evaporating a lot of soil moisture from the previous days heavy rains... and that offset... So some moving part there.  

Despite the overall cinema of a hot times near and far, yesterday wasn't technically part of that 'hot times' just yet.  

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12z NAM has no heat over eastern MA beginning roughly dawn tomorrow through Tuesday morning... heh.  

It's so funny how that specific time frame was modeled originally in this saga to be the apex of the hot stretch, and the NAM is so precisely canceling that exact time frame, as a relative nadir ... fascinating.

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Follow the DP on that one...  We had a modestly dry air mass waft across the region yesterday.  Dawn DPs in the mid 60s to near 70 or so yesterday morning... dried out into the mid to upper 50s during the day. As night wore on ... modest radiational cooling helped bottom out.  We were also evaporating a lot of soil moisture from the previous days heavy rains... and that offset... So some moving part there.  

Despite the overall cinema of a hot times near and far, yesterday wasn't technically part of that 'hot times' just yet.  

Dews tomorrow will be pretty nasty. Lots of 70-75s

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