Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man is this one gonna be special. Gronk out for season Yikes. Week plus long hot stuff. Enjoy the BBB cant wait , 1 day and counting for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Can we get a new MWN record? I think the record is 72F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 While I doubt this will be any kind of record 6 day heat as hinted at by some, I might actually have to install on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Nice plume on the euro. Weenie pockets of near 80F at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Still no 90s in my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 High progs of over .5 rain , nice drink for all before the heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Still no 90s in my forecast. What forecast ? NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Still no 90s in my forecast. Will be shocked if you don’t hit 90F on Fri. GFS is spotting you a century mark, but we know that’s overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Will be shocked if you don’t hit 90F on Fri. GFS is spotting you a century mark, but we know that’s overdone. Yea pretty sure Bobalouie gonna roast with the rest of us. GFS is pure garbage, why even look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What forecast ? NWS? LOl what was that Gronk out for the season all about? early buzz on Trillium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: LOl what was that Gronk out for the season all about? early buzz on Trillium? People were Gronking the ball on no heat , saying it was a phail, calling it run of the mill way before any kind of validation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: People were Gronking the ball on no heat , saying it was a phail, calling it run of the mill way before any kind of validation . 6 consec days of 90F+ ain't happening at the 4 BOX climo stations James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Will be shocked if you don’t hit 90F on Fri. GFS is spotting you a century mark, but we know that’s overdone. I don't disagree that low 90s may be in the cards here. I sold the 95-100+ that's been thrown around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't disagree that low 90s may be in the cards here. I sold the 95-100+ that's been thrown around South wind will eventually hurt you down there to some extent like last time. Up here we roast off of the Monads and ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 hour ago, metagraphica said: While I doubt this will be any kind of record 6 day heat as hinted at by some, I might actually have to install on Saturday. Why? I was thinking there is a definite tenor in the nightly runs to do ..may not 'records' but an extended heat wave at that... so "hinted by some" I assume you mean models, and you disagree with those models? If so... why - just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Euro and GFS are hot for Sat-Mon. Back to 24C 850s up here. Euro was exotically hot in the middle tropospheric heights from D6 to 10 over an unusually large aspect of North America, S of the 50th parallel... I don't think I have ever seen a geographically areal coverage occupy as much of the planetary medium as does the Euro's circumvallate of 594 DAM heights in those extended frames there. (I'm just using ur post to gog ...jesus) What's amusing and musing about that... is that the 850 mb temps, for all fair intents and purposes ...fails to really recede appreciably post this weekend ...effectively merging this heat pop over the weekend with this latter continental inferno in its late mid range/extended. It may not be 100 every day as is. ..more like 90 to 99 would be supported ..but, every day... The NP-Lakes-OV-NE as advertised by NCEP decays the heat signal from west to east, from Sunday on...but, the decay fails to actually get here... Meanwhile, about mid week ... that climate-event-scaled ridge balloons and surges the heat back to those regions west ... by the end of the run, the whole everybody is immersed in it... NP-Lakes-OV-NE ... connected to West TX and Kansas. One thing that is missing? We don't have an ejecta of SW air layers ... otherwise, that pattern would absolutely bizarrely max out - ... I almost wonder if that's just a matter of time anyway. Almost But... that's getting ahead. I think the idea of the Atlantic weakness somehow transitively dictating the flow structure and so forth is setting sail ... slowly. We may need to see a couple runs to gain confidence.. But, particularly in the blend of say, the 00z Euro with the 06z GFS, those runs look more Meteorologically sensible - at least to me. Which, to be fair...yes it can return... However, the behavior was suspect to begin with, with that odd retrograding 500 mb trough along the 37th parallel being that far N. interesting.. Well, we'll see ... but, another run like that and think folks are just being some sort of forcibly contrarian if they don't see the writing on the wall... That's an extended, historic heat event for the country, and merely missing the 850 panache where having to rely on 21 C as opposed to the 24s and 25s may simply be a matter of temporality in the runs. As far as Bob's knee-jerk dismissal of heat around his backyard ... He has a climate-based point. But there is a reason for those numbers - which I am sure he is aware, and as you pointed out amply... the entire southern hemisphere of the wind dial makes it very difficult to put up big numbers there because of the big blue heat sink lurking near-by. However, given the larger scope pattern and what's going on ... anyone in those S. coastal communities ...should the wind go west for any length of time in the early to mid afternoons, you will cook too... That's likely open to less debate - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Still think this will be a minimum 6 day heat wave at big 4 and 4 or 5 elsewhere Has ORH ever had a 6-day heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Why? I was thinking there is a definite tenor in the nightly runs to do ..may not 'records' but an extended heat wave at that... so "hinted by some" I assume you mean models, and you disagree with those models? If so... why - just curious Seemed like he was talking about a 6-day record heat wave, which you also say may not be a record long heat wave...seems you two are on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 ORH only managed 5 in a row in 1911. They're not doing it this time either. There will be a mild down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, tamarack said: Has ORH ever had a 6-day heat wave? 1944 8 in a row and all of them were 94+. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Models will wobble a bit with this. Hopefully less as we get closer. It gonna torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, tamarack said: Has ORH ever had a 6-day heat wave? Might be interesting to look that up... yeah. Thing is, I've seen Logan roast to 97 F and ORH is 89 sometimes when that's happened. So as we know there's a significant difference between 1,000 sigma level and a stone's throw to sea-level during a warm well-mixed atmosphere pointing flags ESE. But even in those off-shore dandy afternoons...say, WNW under a +18C 850mb with good mixing... places like BED/ASH... FIT ...etc, will be 94 to 96. Contrasting, there are hot day "types" where it more stagnant...calmer winds in the bowls of a heat dome... and it's 93 (which is getting to top tier for ORH) while ASH flirts with a hundred... Anyway, what I'm getting at is that some of the longer stretches of 90 plus in Boston's annuls ( I recall 9 day stretch of 90 to 93 in I think it was 1988 ... NYC was 13 I think) Worcester can hold up at 87 the whole way... Yeah, hard to sustain 90+ that high up when it doesn't have a surrounding land mass to add to heating. EDIT, I see Brian already did - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: 1944 8 in a row and all of them were 94+. Impressive. That’s pretty sweet. Was that at the current location by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s pretty sweet. Was that at the current location by then? I don't think so, but I'm not positive. Paging @ORH_wxman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s pretty sweet. Was that at the current location by then? Nope. That was set at 620' while the current site is at 986. However, I found a 6-day in August 1988, 10th-15th, though no days above 93. Aug. 28-Sept. 2 just missed, spoiled by the 89 on Sept. 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 To me-big heat is 96+ and severe is >98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 On 6/26/2018 at 8:02 AM, Ginx snewx said: To me the worst heat waves are the ones that last a week and both day and night temps are high, usually indicating very humid conditions, here are some of our climo sites warmest 7 day periods ever. ORH new 1 80.9 1988-08-15 0 2 80.6 2013-07-20 0 3 80.4 1953-09-04 0 ORH old 1 83.3 1911-07-10 0 2 83.1 1911-07-09 0 3 83.1 1944-08-17 0 Boston new 1 86.2 1944-08-17 0 2 85.0 1944-08-16 0 3 84.8 2002-08-18 0 4 84.5 2013-07-20 0 Boston old 1 83.6 1911-07-07 0 2 83.6 1901-07-03 0 Concord NH new 1 81.6 1944-08-17 0 2 80.3 1944-08-16 0 3 80.1 2010-07-11 0 Concord NH Old 1 81.6 1872-07-05 0 2 81.2 1872-07-06 0 3 81.1 1911-07-07 0 Hartford New 1 83.6 1988-08-15 0 2 83.5 1991-07-23 0 3 83.4 2013-07-20 0 Hartford Old 1 82.2 1901-07-03 0 2 81.9 1901-07-02 0 3 81.9 1901-07-04 0 4 81.3 1896-08-13 0 Bridgeport new 1 84.8 2013-07-20 0 2 84.4 2013-07-21 0 3 83.8 2016-08-17 0 BDR old 1 82.4 1896-08-13 0 2 82.1 1944-08-17 0 3 82.0 1917-08-02 Bump in me rump. Lets do this and break 7 day records for ave temp. My vacation starts tomorrow hot sauce. Its like a sauna in hereya BBB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: To me-big heat is 96+ and severe is >98 Lol how in the Sam Hell can you tell the difference between 96 and 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 48 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Seemed like he was talking about a 6-day record heat wave, which you also say may not be a record long heat wave...seems you two are on the same page. No,, I'm specifically curious why he and others ... are quick to dismiss higher numbers. I mean I understand the climate argument; excluding that, which does not dictate the discrete events, ...only that it describes the mean, I get the "feeling" that people are basing their notions on "feelings" ... unless there is some physical argument? ...I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Meanwhile another beauty in the books today. Siggy rain for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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