Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kevin gonna be bummed when tolland maxes out at 90? ACs thrown out of 2nd floor windows in disgust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ACs thrown out of 2nd floor windows in disgust. Meanwhile another CDDD today to add to the list, enjoy all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Welcome back to reality gfs. Not surprising through that model has been way too warm with everything lately. Not sure the shore even hits 90..maybe Sunday but it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Meanwhile another CDDD today to add to the list, enjoy all Yesterday and today are what I love in Summer. 75F was my high and 43F was my low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Wonder if 12z brings it back. I mean we have 850s supportive of big numbers and GFS dews are low enough to allow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yesterday and today are what I love in Summer. 75F was my high and 43F was my low. That doesn’t say summer to me. It’s nice in May but we’re nearing July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: That doesn’t say summer to me. It’s nice in May but we’re nearing July. On the min, sure, but that 75F is within 1-2F of my normal high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 This signal has had a lot of weight ... despite being in the extended. I'd keep that in mind ... seems folks are quick to want to rush in 'mock' matters. It's all for fun, of course, but I'm wondering if we should hold off and give that more cycles, given to the fact that this doesn't even mature through the NE conus (still) until D 6 thru 8 off of the 00z initialization. Just sayn' The 'bulge' in the westerlies we see propagating out of the west reaches an apparent acme ... right around 595 DM heigths, as we're hitting 120 hours in the 00z Euro. Said node is situated somewhere over SE OH/WV of SW PA. But employing temporal/transitive reasoning ... that means that it is entering better predictive skill (D4) for those areas of the lower Lakes to western OV. That unfortunately means that we are 120 hours here, thus NOT in the Euro's wheelhouse this far E. Some prior runs, when that was 132...144 ... 184 etc, there has been continuity issues as to whether said burgeoning ridge node would continue growth and sprawl...or merely decay as something more transient...pancaking into what looks more like run-o-mill polarward retreat of the westerlies. I still think there is uncertainty there beyond that 120.. I would also note, the Euro would still put up 95 to 99 heat around the Capital District over toward the eastern slope country of NH and ME and probably Logan... 850s air layer is still a parcel ejection source from the SW U.S. and it's not completely eradicated. I guess if there is petty necessity to actually see 104 on a thermometer, that's a tedium I personally could care less over... If it is 96 for two days with lows only to 81 in the urban regions, that's big heat either way we cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: Wonder if 12z brings it back. I mean we have 850s supportive of big numbers and GFS dews are low enough to allow it. which there is a likelihood that is an error... we expanded on that last page or so, last evening, about the GFS' on-going BL issue with theta-e management. Recall, in the winter ...it routinely modeled saturated or near saturation cold side precipitation events with huge gaps between the temperature and DP. It just can't seem to physically actually wet-bulb the temperature ... Anyway, this could be related to the same problems. It isn't ejecting enough moisture into the grids out in time, or has some sort of bug where it removes too much... coming or going... Either way, with perhaps faux dry WV the model is then running away with those modeled 2-meter, gross indecencies to the experienced participants among us ...heh. to put it nicely. 111? really... That's 6 over climo in Phoenix for this time of year for some perspective. Anyway, the Euro was putting up 102 and 104 plausibility during those same cycle/run times..so, we couldn't discount the big heat signal...just that nutty extremeness of the GFS. As to your point, however, overall I agree. I was just also commenting that there is native predictive sloping around 120... I gotta say, the 00z Euro looks suspicious to me how it carries 594+ heights then poof! they suddenly disappear as they are entering the door of NE... particularly when the surrounding synoptics don't impose many reason to force that. who knows - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Bottom line its going to be hot July weather for an extended period just not the record breaking extremes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 ACs thrown out of 2nd floor windows in disgust.Will the power grid be okay now, or can we still expect widespread failures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ACs thrown out of 2nd floor windows in disgust. Lol, Lets be realistic, This has had 90's written all over it for many, Which is really no shock seeing we are heading into summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bottom line its going to be hot July weather for an extended period just not the record breaking extremes . Some records could be threatened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, butterfish55 said: 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ACs thrown out of 2nd floor windows in disgust. Will the power grid be okay now, or can we still expect widespread failures? Brown outs as the epic modeled heat ****s on itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Lol, Lets be realistic, This has had 90's written all over it for many, Which is really no shock seeing we are heading into summer. You lost me at realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Brown outs should be widespread in this . This will go down as a top 5 heatwave . People should be expecting and planning for widespread problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: You lost me at realistic. Ha, Well are you really expecting widespread 100°F temps for this region like some think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Ha, Well are you really expecting widespread 100°F temps for this region like some think? Not here. Mid 90s, tops if we get a W/NW wind trajectory that adds some downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Even 90's up here will be a real reach if we have a sea breeze which looks to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Brown outs should be widespread in this . This will go down as a top 5 heatwave . People should be expecting and planning for widespread problems enjoy your low to mid 90s, maybe the hottest this year has to offer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not here. Mid 90s, tops if we get a W/NW wind trajectory that adds some downslope. And here either, Even sustained 90's for a few days are rare for my local with where we are in relation to the atlantic, As the crow flies, I am 20 miles or so from the ocean, I would need to have SW or NW winds to achieve the higher temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Brown outs should be widespread in this . This will go down as a top 5 heatwave . People should be expecting and planning for widespread problems Forky said to look at soundings and maps, well if he is right this is congrats NNE on having high 850 temps while we all in SNE see 90s in the typical hot spots, turning out typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: And here either, Even sustained 90's for a few days are rare for my local with where we are in relation to the atlantic, As the crow flies, I am 20 miles or so from the ocean, I would need to have SW or NW winds to achieve the higher temps. TAN can do heatwaves. All about the winds though. Southerly or easterly won't do it. Has to be W and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Forky said to look at soundings and maps, well if he is right this is congrats NNE on having high 850 temps while we all in SNE see 90s in the typical hot spots, turning out typical. I’m on the Cape all next week, so will be 80’s and dews and beers and boobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 30 degrees at Saranac lake this morning, remember when Kevin was touting the year without summer a couple of months ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m on the Cape all next week, so will be 80’s and dews and beers and boobs awesome man, will be in SRI myself with the same, and surf! Offshore storms FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Brown outs should be widespread in this . This will go down as a top 5 heatwave . People should be expecting and planning for widespread problems ISO New England is predicting a peak load over the next seven days will be 22,410 megawatts next Monday, which is 6,000 megawatts less that the available generation, and 9,000 megawatts less that the available generation + available imports. Wide spread brown-outs/problems are very unlikely, based on current ISO NE projections. https://www.iso-ne.com/markets-operations/system-forecast-status/seven-day-capacity-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: ISO New England is predicting a peak load over the next seven days will be 22,410 megawatts next Monday, which is 6,000 megawatts less that the available generation, and 9,000 megawatts less that the available generation + available imports. Wide spread brown-outs/problems are very unlikely, based on current ISO NE projections. https://www.iso-ne.com/markets-operations/system-forecast-status/seven-day-capacity-forecast Hey great site thanks With more than 32,000 megawatts (MW) of capacity expected to be available this summer, electricity supplies should be sufficient to meet New England consumer demand, but tight system conditions could develop if forecasted extreme peak conditions occur Summer 2018 stats: Peak demand forecast: 25,729 MW with temperatures at about 91°F Extreme peak demand forecast: 28,120 MW with an extended heat wave of about 94°F Peak forecast incorporates 3,330 MW of demand reduction: Energy efficiency measures are forecasted to shave 2,700 MW off of the peak Behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic installations at homes and businesses are forecasted to shave 630 MW off of the peak Last year’s peak demand: 23,968 MW All-time highest summer peak demand: 28,130 MW on August 2, 2006 2018 stats: Pe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: TAN can do heatwaves. All about the winds though. Southerly or easterly won't do it. Has to be W and NW. They also do snow as well.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m on the Cape all next week, so will be 80’s and dews and beers and boobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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