Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Put it this way.. When Will talks and posts about temps in any season other than cold... it’s going to be real and it’s going to be spectacular.

I would love to see myself, ORH, and even you on the tippy top bald spot of your hill hit 100°. Maybe even Mitch can hit 90°?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Couple quick observations re this heat interest from over the course of the day...

The operational Euro is an aggressive outlier with it's seemingly grasping at reasons to rasp at the heat ..eroding using a menagerie of different sources... The EPS is more resistant to change, and also indicates higher heights lingering deeper into the week. This tells me the 00z is more likely to do what the 00z did last night, tonight ... and that's waft right back with bigger numbers ...lasting longer. 

Despite that ...it is perhaps notable where the GFS's unrealistic numbers are coming from.   I was noticing the DPs are barely over 60 F, which I suspect is too dry.  Then it occurred to me, the GFS had a DP depression bias throughout the winter.. It was consummately assessing CCB/saturated cold cyclonic side precipitation events with huge gaps between the DP and the air temperature. This was especially noticeable in effecting ptype algorithms (not that those are much good anyway) but, with fresh clean arctic highs park quintessentially N/NW of the region, and heavy on-going QPF, the model would routinely feature some 10 F of gap between the temp and DP. 

I am not sure if this is the same thing, but ... the combination of looking suspiciously sere in the boundary layer ... up under those 24 C 850 mb temperatures, strikes me as interestingly coincidental..and perhaps if we can inject more moisture into the column more realistically... the temp may come down to merely top tier heat, instead of "historically suggesting infeasible and almost physically impossible".  It may be the GFS just as a putrid dearth of moisture at the bottom of it's columns at most times - this would most certainly have an effect at both ends of the scale: whether saturated pseudo-adiabatic or on the dry side.  

It's well know the gfs upgrade has made its 2m temperatures useless.  However 850s do support widespread mid 90s over the interior with the hotspots that benefit from compressional downslopr flow upper 90s to 100

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I agree. It’s going too superadiabatic near the surface. Regardless, it is still record breaking aloft for H85 temps. It’s hard to avoid 100F over the interior lower els with full sun and 850s of 23-24C. 

exactly ... starve that extreme thermal profile of water vapor on top of the hell it'd bring anyway, and the 2-meter turns into some kind of an insolation bomb!   

23 to 25 C will get you to 40 C in the 2-meter. .. . you know this, but for the general reader... talking 37 or 39 in the bottom of the adiabat, plus...2 meter parcel turning adds typically another 2 C ... 40 to 41 C equates to 104 106 F egads... but I'm going shy of 111 or 112 :)

But the 18z GFS pushes the 850 mb layer to 26C Sunday evening btw - ...at least, going by the color wheel - maybe someone has a different product?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's well know the gfs upgrade has made its 2m temperatures useless.  However 850s do support widespread mid 90s over the interior with the hotspots that benefit from compressional downslopr flow upper 90s to 100

yeah... top tier heat is in order ...  There's always potential for more ... and as we get closer, some of the necessary parametrics could more easily be observed and with confidence, from the various guidance tools. Right now, we have a model suspect with the bottom of the troposphere, and one that is sea-sawing between pedestrian and extreme every other cycle.  

It's the summer version of a winter storm on D7 syndrome -

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But the 18z GFS pushes the 850 mb layer to 26C Sunday evening btw - ...at least, going by the color wheel - maybe someone has a different product?

1

On my Weatherbell map the 18Z GFS has 25-26F over much of E Mass,  S NH and SW Maine Sunday evening.  18Z looked warmer than 12Z.  I guess if its going to get so hot and humid might as well try to go for the records.  Hope we get a good soaking on Thursday to help the foliage stand up to 3 days of relentless heat.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d bet we’ve never hit it. Has ORH?

seems like you need no leaves on trees earlier in season to have legit chance in the hills 

Technically ORH has, but not at the current site. They had 102° on 7/4/1911. Maybe even the current site would’ve been close with that temp. BOS was 104° that day, but that was pre-Logan too. That has to be the hottest day for the region, as a whole, on record. Quite a few all-time state records with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

On my Weatherbell map the 18Z GFS has 25-26F over much of E Mass,  S NH and SW Maine Sunday evening.  18Z looked warmer than 12Z.  I guess if its going to get so hot and humid might as well try to go for the records.  Hope we get a good soaking on Thursday to help the foliage stand up to 3 days of relentless heat.  

Yeah I mean there’s warmer pockets here and there on varying rns, but the general theme has been for consistent, widespread 22-24C at the peak. Like Tip said, with typical summer mixing you can just sum a general 15C to that and get 37-39C at 2m. Get full sun, a strong westerly component, and dry it out a bit and thermodynamically you can squeeze another 2C out of it. I wish we had some soundings from that 1911 stretch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

612114690_ScreenShot2018-06-25at9_36_37PM.png.4fb7d28a7abedd48ce38ec2bf3e889d1.png

Such a crazy 3 day run from 7/4 to 7/6 .. I have close to 15 yrs of records imby at a comparable elevation just E of ORH and that stretch would have 3 of the 4 hottest days 

 

With the expansion of urban heat islands, I wonder if that same airmass moving in today would have temps a degree or two higher

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

612114690_ScreenShot2018-06-25at9_36_37PM.png.4fb7d28a7abedd48ce38ec2bf3e889d1.png

Such a crazy 3 day run from 7/4 to 7/6 .. I have close to 15 yrs of records imby at a comparable elevation just E of ORH and that stretch would have 3 of the 4 hottest days 

 

The highs are ridiculous, but not as much as the lows to me.  To have those minium temperatures is unfathomable to me.  A lot of 70s and even a min of 80F...wow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I want it.  I remember one day in 1990.  LA hit 112, PHX 123.  It was stupendous.

Haha.....west folks be like “wut?”

100+ out West is easy and frequent.....depending on where you are it can be daily or once or twice per year.....growing up in the Eastern Bay Area I can remember waves of 105+ for several days and some of those days being 110+.....ya ya it’s dry but dude it’s so hot.....brutal.....if we could get to 100 and stay under a dew of 60 here that would so awesome.....a taste of summer back home.....either way we sizzle....Love extremes 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To me the worst heat waves are the ones that last a week and both day and night temps are high, usually indicating very humid conditions, here are some of our climo sites warmest 7 day periods ever.

ORH new

1 80.9 1988-08-15 0
2 80.6 2013-07-20 0
3 80.4 1953-09-04 0
       

 

ORH old

1 83.3 1911-07-10 0
2 83.1 1911-07-09 0
3 83.1 1944-08-17 0

 

 

Boston new

1 86.2 1944-08-17 0
2 85.0 1944-08-16 0
3 84.8 2002-08-18 0
4 84.5 2013-07-20 0

 

Boston old

1 83.6 1911-07-07 0
2 83.6 1901-07-03 0

Concord NH new

1 81.6 1944-08-17 0
2 80.3 1944-08-16 0
3 80.1 2010-07-11 0

Concord NH Old

1 81.6 1872-07-05 0
2 81.2 1872-07-06 0
3 81.1 1911-07-07 0

 

Hartford New

1 83.6 1988-08-15 0
2 83.5 1991-07-23 0
3 83.4 2013-07-20 0

 

Hartford Old

1 82.2 1901-07-03 0
2 81.9 1901-07-02 0
3 81.9 1901-07-04 0
4 81.3 1896-08-13 0

 

Bridgeport new

1 84.8 2013-07-20 0
2 84.4 2013-07-21 0
3 83.8 2016-08-17 0

 

BDR old

1 82.4 1896-08-13 0
2 82.1 1944-08-17 0
3 82.0 1917-08-02

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...