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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx
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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

I just can't believe this.  Widespread 97-102F, sure.  Maybe a spot 103F but anything over that, and for a few days on end would be unprecedented.  Like some say I expect the models to come back to earth to some degree as we get closer.

Roll eyes if it may ... but, we have been in last place for frequency/occurrence, compared to the rest of the planet, when/where on a minimum of once...but more than once, they have witnessed/endured 'worst ever' in history heat waves over the last 10 years.  

I have opined and expanded on this related aspect a few times of recent years, and how this region of the global has instilled for it, a sort of 'faux impression' what (frankly) climate models have been warning - and that is that freak heat wave frequency should increased.   

This can and will at some point come home ;)    ...is this one of those times?  We'll see... but it certainly could not have a less vague presence in the guidance for being one.   As others are noting... 1911 and 1944 (and lest we forget 2012 primarily south of here..) the eastern U.S. can and sometimes does, though rarely... truly and sincerely cook..  But, we could be mapping a circumstance that analogs/reduxes one of those, on top of a GW on goign inferno

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

This can and will at some point come home ;)    ...is this one of those times?  We'll see... but it certainly could not have a less vague presence in the guidance for being one.   As others are noting... 1911 and 1944 (and lest we forget 2012 primarily south of here..) the eastern U.S. can and sometimes does, though rarely... truly and sincerely cook..  But, we could be mapping a circumstance that analogs/reduxes one of those, on top of a GW on goign inferno

105 degrees with heat index close to 120 in Raleigh. Hottest day I ever experienced. 

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Might as well grab another milestone since you now reside in New England, You had a hot hand this winter........................:lol:

106 degrees at DAW during this wave. Book it.

Thankfully, I'm retreating to Moosehead Lake for holiday camping :)

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2 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

106 degrees at DAW during this wave. Book it.

Thankfully, I'm retreating to Moosehead Lake for holiday camping :)

They were still seeing frost up that way last week, Bring your fly dope up there, The black flies and mosquitoes will be enjoying the fine dining your going to provide..............;)

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

They were still seeing frost up that way last week, Bring your fly dope up there, The black flies and mosquitoes will be enjoying the fine dining your going to provide..............;)

Oh boy. Locals kept hyping about black flies but they haven't been bad on my recent hikes so far.

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6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Oh boy. Locals kept hyping about black flies but they haven't been bad on my recent hikes so far.

I fished up to Moosehead Lake and that whole Kokadjo area over the years, Seasons get going later during the spring/summer up that way, You're going to be in its prime time frame..............lol

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Day 6 MOS is hitting the 100F. Not sure I've seen that with that much climo getting factored in.

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/25/2018  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28| FRI 29| SAT 30| SUN 01| MON 02|TUE CLIMO
 N/X  49  82| 59  79| 65  79| 65  93| 69  92| 74 100| 73  92| 71 60 83
 TMP  59  73| 67  71| 68  75| 71  83| 76  85| 81  89| 79  83| 76      
 DPT  44  48| 59  56| 63  67| 64  64| 66  67| 74  72| 71  70| 69      
 CLD  CL  CL| PC  PC| OV  OV| PC  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC      
 WND   6   9|  9  12| 12  12|  6   7|  5  11|  8   8|  8  13| 12      
 P12   2   1|  2   9| 82  73| 10   3|  6   7| 18  17| 24  21| 26 23 23
 P24       2|      9|     82|     17|     13|     22|     32|       35
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  3   4|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      4|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   7| 21  46|  7   1|  3  16| 20  22| 26  23| 14      
 T24        |  0    | 27    | 46    | 10    | 23    | 38    | 36      

 

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KCON   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/25/2018  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28| FRI 29| SAT 30| SUN 01| MON 02|TUE CLIMO
 N/X  43  83| 51  82| 59  75| 60  92| 61  91| 68  99| 68  96| 68 55 80
 TMP  57  71| 63  72| 64  70| 68  80| 71  82| 77  86| 78  83| 75      
 DPT  45  44| 54  58| 60  65| 64  62| 62  68| 70  69| 69  71| 67      
 CLD  CL  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  CL| CL  CL| PC  CL| CL  CL| PC      
 WND   6   8|  3   8|  6   7|  4   7|  3   6|  4   6|  2  11|  6      
 P12   3   1|  3   6| 56  91| 30   5|  5   9| 26  17| 21  20| 26 21 22
 P24       3|      6|     91|     36|     15|     31|     27|       33
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  2   5|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      5|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   3| 11  49| 15   2|  2  13| 24  18| 24  20| 18      
 T24        |  0    | 17    | 49    |  6    | 30    | 28    | 33      
                                                                      
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It should be interesting to see how things "top" out.  My all time "hottest" is 100°.  Should be interesting if we can beat that.  I don't keep track of duration of heat waves but I looked through my own record and I do have a handful of times where I've had 7-10 stretches of 90° plus weather.  In July 1991 I had two days that topped out at 100° during a 9 day stretch.  This almost seems comparable but like I said, should be interesting to see how things work out.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 1911 heat wave is definitely the gold standard in New England for intensity/duration combo.

Aug 1944 and then late Aug/early Sep 1953 are exceptionally impressive too, but they were late enough in the season that the raw numbers can't match 1911.

Bridgton, holder of Maine's hottest days (2 are tied) had a couple of 4-day runs of 97-105 separated by a 2-day cooldown - 90 and 86.  Farmington ran about 1° less hot, with a 104 and 3 with 102.  Since that heatwave, Farmington has just 2 days 100+, 1944 (June, only reached 96 is August) and 1975.  Bridgton has had just 2 triples since 1919, in 1949 and 1975.  Does not seem to have been excessively humid in Farmington, as their mildest low was 68 and most mornings were mid 60s or lower.  Farther south, folks weren't so fortunate.

If the big heat verifies, I'm hoping for a BD like we had on 8/3/75 in BGR.  After the 102 on the 2nd (and 101 in BHB), the forecast was for another 100 or close that Sunday.  We woke up to clouds and 70 with sprinkles.  It had been 78 at 12:01 AM, but never passed 72 that afternoon.   Ahhhhh!  What a relief.

If this heat comes close to verifying, it will be a shock to folks around here.  Last time Farmington got above 93 was in 2002, and they've had only one day (98 on 6/20/1995) hotter than 95 since 8/2/75.  NWS observer has served for 62 years, and all but the first 3 months it's been at his current location.

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43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Day 6 MOS is hitting the 100F. Not sure I've seen that with that much climo getting factored in.


GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/25/2018  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28| FRI 29| SAT 30| SUN 01| MON 02|TUE CLIMO
 N/X  49  82| 59  79| 65  79| 65  93| 69  92| 74 100| 73  92| 71 60 83
 TMP  59  73| 67  71| 68  75| 71  83| 76  85| 81  89| 79  83| 76      
 DPT  44  48| 59  56| 63  67| 64  64| 66  67| 74  72| 71  70| 69      
 CLD  CL  CL| PC  PC| OV  OV| PC  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC      
 WND   6   9|  9  12| 12  12|  6   7|  5  11|  8   8|  8  13| 12      
 P12   2   1|  2   9| 82  73| 10   3|  6   7| 18  17| 24  21| 26 23 23
 P24       2|      9|     82|     17|     13|     22|     32|       35
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  3   4|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      4|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   7| 21  46|  7   1|  3  16| 20  22| 26  23| 14      
 T24        |  0    | 27    | 46    | 10    | 23    | 38    | 36      

 


GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KCON   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/25/2018  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28| FRI 29| SAT 30| SUN 01| MON 02|TUE CLIMO
 N/X  43  83| 51  82| 59  75| 60  92| 61  91| 68  99| 68  96| 68 55 80
 TMP  57  71| 63  72| 64  70| 68  80| 71  82| 77  86| 78  83| 75      
 DPT  45  44| 54  58| 60  65| 64  62| 62  68| 70  69| 69  71| 67      
 CLD  CL  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  CL| CL  CL| PC  CL| CL  CL| PC      
 WND   6   8|  3   8|  6   7|  4   7|  3   6|  4   6|  2  11|  6      
 P12   3   1|  3   6| 56  91| 30   5|  5   9| 26  17| 21  20| 26 21 22
 P24       3|      6|     91|     36|     15|     31|     27|       33
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  2   5|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      5|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   3| 11  49| 15   2|  2  13| 24  18| 24  20| 18      
 T24        |  0    | 17    | 49    |  6    | 30    | 28    | 33      
                                                                      

Not to add fuel to the fires here but ... peering over the synoptic evolution across that D7 and the only difference between D6 and D7 is that the GFS is spattering convection which looks more likely erroneous as the region is under true hammer cap ridging and most likely that sort of instability won't exist...  Other than that, not sure why D7 even trims off the 8 ... perhaps that's a tail end thing with climatology just taking over the product...?   I mean, not that 12 or 16 over climo is a small amount - just sayn'

it really is awesome.   

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to add fuel to the fires here but ... peering over the synoptic evolution across that D7 and the only difference between D6 and D7 is that the GFS is spattering convection which looks more likely erroneous as the region is under true hammer cap ridging and most likely that sort of instability won't exist...  Other than that, not sure why D7 even trims off the 8 ... perhaps that's a tail end thing with climatology just taking over the product...?   I mean, not that 12 or 16 over climo is a small amount - just sayn'

it really is awesome.  

It is!

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12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the euro leaves a piece of the thursday system behind under the developing ridge. it's probably wrong

it did that 12z yesterday too - 

these whole scale changes are continuity problems, incarnate... Plus, 120+hrs is outside the Euro's wheel house. 

For that matter, this whole thing is technically still extended range 

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Crazy that there will be more NNE frost tonight (possibly 6th morning with 30s this June at the local ASOS) followed by a heatwave within the next week.

-3 on the month and only 3 days with positive departures...looks like the end of the month will attempt to dent those numbers.

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6 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good article about the 1911 heat wave

http://www.newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/the-1911-heat-wave-was-so-deadly-it-drove-people-insane/

 

Ginxy beat me to it...talk about babies crying for their mommas.

..The article veils a description of a Sonoran heat release event, and doesn't know it:  "... but in July hot, dry air from the southern plains flowed into Canada and then swept south and toward the coast. ..."

Ejected out by synoptic roll-out...masses of excessive 850 layer processed heat from the SW/W TX get caught up in a continental pulsation of subtropical ridging that may last a considerable amount of time. This is what occurred in 1995 and 2012... I believe 1936 was uniquely a different scenario... and I am less familiar with 1944. Anyway, the ejected air times well with the burgeoning ridge, and the two positively feed-back on one another.

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Couple quick observations re this heat interest from over the course of the day...

The operational Euro is an aggressive outlier with it's seemingly grasping at reasons to rasp at the heat ..eroding using a menagerie of different sources... The EPS is more resistant to change, and also indicates higher heights lingering deeper into the week. This tells me the 00z is more likely to do what the 00z did last night, tonight ... and that's waft right back with bigger numbers ...lasting longer. 

Despite that ...it is perhaps notable where the GFS's unrealistic numbers are coming from.   I was noticing the DPs are barely over 60 F, which I suspect is too dry.  Then it occurred to me, the GFS had a DP depression bias throughout the winter.. It was consummately assessing CCB/saturated cold cyclonic side precipitation events with huge gaps between the DP and the air temperature. This was especially noticeable in effecting ptype algorithms (not that those are much good anyway) but, with fresh clean arctic highs park quintessentially N/NW of the region, and heavy on-going QPF, the model would routinely feature some 10 F of gap between the temp and DP. 

I am not sure if this is the same thing, but ... the combination of looking suspiciously sere in the boundary layer ... up under those 24 C 850 mb temperatures, strikes me as interestingly coincidental..and perhaps if we can inject more moisture into the column more realistically... the temp may come down to merely top tier heat, instead of "historically suggesting infeasible and almost physically impossible".  It may be the GFS just as a putrid dearth of moisture at the bottom of it's columns at most times - this would most certainly have an effect at both ends of the scale: whether saturated pseudo-adiabatic or on the dry side.  

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Couple quick observations re this heat interest from over the course of the day...

The operational Euro is an aggressive outlier with rasping at the heat from a managery of different sources... The EPS is more recent to change, and also indicates higher heights lingering deeper into the week. This tells me the 00z is likely to do what the 00z did last night, tonight ... and that waft right back with bigger numbers ...lasting longer. 

Despite that ...it is perhaps notable where the GFS's unrealistic numbers are coming from.   I was noticing the DPs are barely over 60 F, which I suspect is too dry.  Then it occurred to me, the GFS had a DP depression bias throughout the winter.. It was consummately assessing CCB/saturated cold cyclonic side precipitation events with huge gaps between the DP and the air temperature. This was especially noticeable in effecting ptype algorithms (not that those are much good anyway) but, with fresh clean arctic highs park quintessentially N/NW of the region, and heavy on-going QPF, the model would routinely feature some 10 F of gap between the temp and DP. 

I am not sure if this is the same thing, but ... the combination of looking suspiciously sere in the in the boundary layer up under those 24 C 850 mb temperatures, strikes me as interestingly coincidental..and perhaps if we can inject more moisture into the column more realistically... the temp may come down to merely top tier instead of "historically infeasible and almost physically impossible"

Yeah I agree. It’s going too superadiabatic near the surface. Regardless, it is still record breaking aloft for H85 temps. It’s hard to avoid 100F over the interior lower els with full sun and 850s of 23-24C. 

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