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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx
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56 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There would be a huge burden on the grid and likely rolling blackouts if not straight up, short duration power failures.  There would certainly be heat related deaths. 

Fortunately, many cities and towns set up cooling centers for residents. In some of the big heat events in our country’s history, this wasn’t the case.  Hopefully this mitigates some issues.

Part of me is rooting for 3 100+ days in a row, but then the other 95% of my soul says wtf.    I’m mostly not working at the moment and can hide in my pool and AC. Being at 1000’ helps too.

I still am not buying the GFS, but the Euro is a scorcher too.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah. It’ll probably end up like our usual higher end heat. Maybe a couple of 95-100 days in the middle of a heat wave. It’s hard to see days of 23-25C 850s with good mixing verifying. 

Its hard to see temps here in the triple digits being close to the ocean, I can see possibly the area around IZG though popping into those 100's if the models verify.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Its hard to see temps here in the triple digits being close to the ocean, I can see possibly the area around IZG though popping into those 100's if the models verify.

I mean...1911 did happen. I really won't believe it until we get those 850s inside of 48hr. Something will F it up. It's just funny seeing the models spit these numbers out. Weenie dawn awakening material for James' next novel.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah. It’ll probably end up like our usual higher end heat. Maybe a couple of 95-100 days in the middle of a heat wave. It’s hard to see days of 23-25C 850s with good mixing verifying. 

1911, here we come.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean...1911 did happen. I really won't believe it until we get those 850s inside of 48hr. Something will F it up. It's just funny seeing the models spit these numbers out. Weenie dawn awakening material for James' next novel.

Mid high 90's, I can probably buy, Going to take some work for 100's, I would sell at this point

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The 1911 heat wave is definitely the gold standard in New England for intensity/duration combo.

 

Aug 1944 and then late Aug/early Sep 1953 are exceptionally impressive too, but they were late enough in the season that the raw numbers can't match 1911.

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Just read that article about 1911.  Very interesting.  Looking at the pictures people didn't wear shorts in those days.  Heavy garments not breathable modern wear.  No fans, no AC.  If New England thought it was bad think of slaves and people that lived down south and had to endure month after month.  Okay time for GFS to see if it maintains it's craziness...

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Hottest all time days in BTV, 1911 shows up a few times:

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/climo/extremes/xtrmtemp.pdf
 

Quote

 

Highest

101 degrees- Aug 11th, 1944

100 degrees- Jul 14th, 1995 Jun 19th, 1995 Jul 3rd, 1911

99 degrees- Aug 9th, 2001 Jul 20th, 1977 Aug 2nd, 1975 Jul 18th, 1953

98 degrees- Jul 19th, 2013 Sep 9th, 2002 Aug 1st, 1975 Jul 29th, 1949 Jul 3rd, 1966 Jul 27th, 1949 Jul 8th, 1921 Aug 1st, 1917 Jul 4th & 5th, 1911

 

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21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good article about the 1911 heat wave

http://www.newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/the-1911-heat-wave-was-so-deadly-it-drove-people-insane/

 

Ginxy beat me to it...talk about babies crying for their mommas.

 Besides lack of air conditioning and few electric fans, very few people wore shorts and T-shirts back then so I'm sure that didn't help. 

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1 minute ago, klw said:

Hottest all time days in BTV, 1911 shows up a few times:

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/climo/extremes/xtrmtemp.pdf
 

Interesting that 1944 max is more impressive at BTV than 1911...it's the other way around most other spots. Did the obs site change between those years?

 

But 1944 was absolutely relentless for duration. It was like a 8-9 day assault. Longer than 1911....though most other places had more intense heat in 1911 than 1944. July 1911 though had like 4 straight days of triple digits in spots...then had a brief break and then another 2-3 day heat wave (though not as intense as round 1)

 

 

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27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just read that article about 1911.  Very interesting.  Looking at the pictures people didn't wear shorts in those days.  Heavy garments not breathable modern wear.  No fans, no AC.  If New England thought it was bad think of slaves and people that lived down south and had to endure month after month.  Okay time for GFS to see if it maintains it's craziness...

This is how we do it.

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-163DB0E8-D1C6-4853-A2A2-B6CE4ED4403A.pdf

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-D6DCA0F3-C852-4290-99EA-41D5EC24819F.pdf

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-3C32B8DB-3F38-4E6B-B6ED-3D01E6EED628.pdf

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Watching from afar and am in awe of that GFS output.  Reminds me of some of the stuff I was seeing in this part of the country in 2012 on other models... and within a 2-3 day lead time, which generally ended up about 2-5 degrees cooler in reality but still solidly in hot as hell territory.

Drought monitor does not technically show drought, but there are relatively significant precip deficits going back months.  That may be enough to add on modestly to whatever the airmass aloft ends up supporting, versus if soils were water logged.

In any event, looks like it could be a dangerous setup.  I know air conditioning is generally less prevalent (especially central air) in that part of the country. The human body can handle some heat stress relatively well at first, but once you roll into the 3rd and 4th day without relief... not so much.

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