OSUmetstud Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Why is the gfs output so high? I've noticed it the past month or two. Not just for this potential heat wave either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 What the **** is the GFS doing?! This is the peak of like 4days of well into the 100s. LO to the freakin L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 As crazy as the GFS is, the euro does have days of like 22-24C over us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 A few days of 100s on the euro too. Insanity. This is currently modeled like July 1911. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 It also drops cyclone pressures into the 800s, consistently. Still waiting for one to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: What the **** is the GFS doing?! This is the peak of like 4days of well into the 100s. LO to the freakin L. I think it’s right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think it’s right 110 within reach at your BDL casa ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It also drops cyclone pressures into the 800s, consistently. Still waiting for one to verify. Well I think we can toss those GFS 2m temps, but it’s looking hot regardless. I mean it’s trying to pop 45C 2m temps with 25C 850s. You’re probably looking more at 104-106F with those 850s which is still pushing state all-time records. The euro and ggem are 100+ too so we’re talking consensus high end. Even if we lose a few degC aloft or get a day with convection we’re probably still seeing a day pushing 100°. Gotta get it inside d5 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 110 within reach at your BDL casa ? Overnight lows in the 80's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Overnight lows in the 80's? Congrats UHIs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Congrats UHIs. Nuts, we are going to roast down here in the NYC metro area. Temps probably not dropping below 80 for a few nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 I posted those maps because of how weenieish they are, but gotta wait a few days before we legit start talking breaking records. The FV3-GFS has been doing some funky things, but other models are hot as a firecracker too...just not Phoenix caliber hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 I would slash 5-10% off those temp numbers (in degrees F) for now...climo....but should be a nice scorcher for a few days. Power consumption will be nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: What the **** is the GFS doing?! This is the peak of like 4days of well into the 100s. LO to the freakin L. Calling the National Guard for heat ... omg...hahahaha. Yeah that's ... that's a head scratcher. I don't think 24C at 850 ...which is pretty much top tier for what we ever have witnessed slabbing over head of our lat/lon ...even supports numbers above 103 or so; which is of course hotter 'n holy hell... Probably shouldn't down play general societal impact potential at a chilly 103, huh. Hot August 1975 put up 102 at Logan, 104 at Providence, and 107 at New Bedford. The previous afternoon readings were in the high 90s at those locations, and the overnight were elevated - you'd almost have to have the high launch pad... We aren't getting the radiative insolation they do into Dallas, and we don't have Chinook either.. There are some physical limitations to our neck of the woods that make those number specious to me - to put it "mildly" (haha). If we look at the MOS numbers, they are lower? I think that's evidence that the product you present above, is similar to those bar-graph products, both of which are just like raw, coarsely resolved machine puke. They haven't had those other parametrics applied to them. Like, Worcester ...at 1,000 foot and change of elevation, being 105 F with 850s at 24 C...that seems like a physically challenging slope/adiabat just on the surface - heh, literally... I almost wonder if they have a very poorly resolved topographical/geographical base to the atmosphere, as though the sigma levels are flat wrong without necessarily applied modifications.. who knows. But, I dunno...I'm employing logic as a speculation tool... I don't actually purposely know what the source/origin of the bar-graphs, or that graph, which "looks" like the came from the same source, is... Just that it might explain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 I vaguely remember this heat wave. I was living in Baltimore as a teenager but still watching weather. This particular hot day had a NW downsloping wind. I remember thinking how low the RH was.. I maybe mistaking.... Hot August 1975 put up 102 at Logan, 104 at Providence, and 107 at New Bedford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 55 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would slash 5-10% off those temp numbers (in degrees F) for now...climo....but should be a nice scorcher for a few days. Power consumption will be nuts This is a best approach ... as Brian just also intimated... The entertainment of those products ... it is what it is, but don't believe what you see in the movies - heh. We have a warmer than normal pattern... Hell, we don't even know if the flow doesn't buckle unexpectedly over eastern Ontario, and it doesn't have to do so demonstratively; subtle mass confluence in the form of differentiating mid level wind velocities can impose BD tendencies. Can we imagine ..? After all this, we BD and it's 69 F at Logan while it's 95 at ALB - OH, that'd be delicious. I mean... there's no such boundary indicated as of 06z, the 18z and 00z runs of the GFS tried to do that...even though how it went about doing so was dubious and unlikely. The blend of the operational runs at 850 mb are impressive. The GGEM, Euro, GFS... all bring 21 to 24 or even 25 C at 850 mb, and... one aspect I find intriguing is that that air layer's thermal layout is pulsing hotter upon the 00z renditions every day from Saturday through that following Tuesday... all guidance appear to be doing that. Some mixing and adulteration of that layer due to diurnal mixing is to be expected, but, there's like 2 to 3 C of pulsing going on... That strikes me as either 1 ... to much so, or 2 ... an indication of a uniquely ideal set up for very tall boundary layers - that would maximize the adiabats and really get the surface to fry. I don't have a problem with upper tier heat in general... But there is no way in Hades, the modeled initial conditions would cause ORH to trophy a 105, or Lawrence to put up a 111... agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 we July 1911 redux? Honestly can anyone remember more impressive looking output for a heat wave in ~5-7 day range for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: we July 1911 redux? Honestly can anyone remember more impressive looking output for a heat wave in ~5-7 day range for our area? I've seen this before ... I'll give it to you it's rare. But, comparing the virtual world of weather (modeled realm) vs the real world of weather (what verifies) the former tends to extremes the latter less often experiences, and thus most of those big balloon ridgy heat domes pop before they get inside the mid ranges.... That said... sometimes reality transcends the absurdity of fiction and crazy crap happens. We'll have to see... if we can get this bad-boy to three days of lead, and the actual MOS products (will be < than their climate dimming ...while applying the physics the raw numbers currently are not) than we can start gaining confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Ha... well, if one uses the GGEM....it just utterly eradicated any heat for anyone straight through to the end of it's run... Out of nowhere, it opts to plunk a -1 SD trough closed off over eastern NE where every other guidance ..including its self, have been for days indicated at minimum, a +2 SD ridge... As a result, in a single run it's swung eastern New England from 99 to 69 ...and pegs it there with onshore flow through the middle of that next week... So there you go - Obviously that's just erratic model noise, but... it does serve to remind us that this whole talk-of-the-town (because there's nothing else going on..) is still 5+ days away. We could still end up 88 for four days... Like I've said and said before, big ridge balloons love to pop and deflate in mid ranges. I wonder if the Euro pulls the plug too - I'm guessin not but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 GFS showing instability in its own rite... Keeps high temps well shy of records and actually more manageably hot through the period...never really exceeding 94 or 95 ... I'd say that's more believable by climate arguments alone... But, it's getting to those regressed numbers by dubiously generating all kind of convective gunk inside the planetary node of those huge DAM heights...which for that sort of phenomenon is typically more suppressed. That's a new aspect ...error or not... I don't know if the winter phenomenon ...where a big D8 system gets lost for a few cycles before 'storming' back applies also to summer-time model expectations wrt to ridges... but, it'll be interesting to see if this thing is at the beginning of getting pulverized by models rasping the heights and heat with a swarm of offsets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Interesting run of the Euro ... for that model has that correction scheming that's supposed to tamp down exaggerated perturbations ... which is pretty suspiciously looking like what has victimized the GGEM and GFS this 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 I haven’t looked at the SuperSwiss since winter. I’m interested to see it’s thoughts for next week. It did well with winter temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 The euro does have 576 dm thicknesses up well north of the us Canadian border up north of Quebec on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Euro is hot at 2m Saturday and particularly Sunday and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 it is... possibly as a result of error smoothing ... but, it's not as impressive/backed off with the height depths and longevity of the ridge... plenty-a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 The core of the heat may actually be over NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 The Euro's being cute with an MCS ... it takes it's vestigial convective induced meso s/w and develops it into a TC off the M/A... 00z had it a hurricane (c 1) into the 'Linas but this run is more TS and keeps it to E of CC... The GGEM actually uses something similar to phase with a maritime parcel of retrograde mechanics ...and that's the source/origin for it's sudden continuity break with a total closed mid level circulation that ...well, has zippo support from any other source... Except, this Euro run has the TC too ..it just bi-passes that N stream. In either case, this Euro run has pretty much opted to lose the upper tier complexion for the heat signal ...and looks more like a seasonal warmer than normal period. Caution as obviously at 5 day minimum before this becomes imminent ...it could come fully back or disappear altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 While not likely... I would watch whatever forms off the east coast.. could be a sneaky event in about 5 days.. 0z Euro had a hurricane hitting NC and 12z takes what looks to be a tropical storm East of New England... I'm sure nothing will come of it.. but still something to watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: The Euro's being cute with an MCS ... it takes it's vestigial convective induced meso s/w and develops it into a TC off the M/A... 00z had it a hurricane (c 1) into the 'Linas but this run is more TS and keeps it to E of CC... The GGEM actually uses something similar to phase with a maritime parcel of retrograde mechanics ...and that's the source/origin for it's sudden continuity break with a total closed mid level circulation that ...well, has zippo support from any other source... Except, this Euro run has the TC too ..it just bi-passes that N stream. In either case, this Euro run has pretty much opted to lose the upper tier complexion for the heat signal ...and looks more like a seasonal warmer than normal period. Caution as obviously at 5 day minimum before this becomes imminent ...it could come fully back or disappear altogether. Just saw your post should have read through before posting... I guess we will have to see what that mcs does in the next day or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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