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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx
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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats at Tamarack's old stomping grounds near Ft Kent?

 

850t_f072_bg_US.png

It's been off and on in the Euro... hasn't really committed to it but this run passes inside of D4 so perhaps more believable. 

It also does almost identically the exact same synoptic evolution two days later -  ...before another heat welling in the extendeded... 

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Heat was a total bust here. Normal day 

Busted with heat today too.  High of 84.  Looks like many people did get good rain today.   S NH,  SW Maine which was very dry and many places in Mass.  Hopefully it holds together for you.  Rain was very frustrating for me as I really needed a good rain.  Didn't realize 2 tornado warnings down in Mass right now.

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23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Strong southerly winds killed it here.  Winds were gusting 25-30 mph.  TAN topped out at a measly 83F, 6F cooler than Sundays high.

Don't even have to set up the scaling equations statistical method, the ordering of significant factors on the system is the wind off a relatively cold water source...followed by lapse rate/mixing depth ... then, clouds... Clouds really like #3.

Step away from those environs that are directly impacted by ocean taint, and then those other factors, such as mixing and clouds get bumped up... 

Comparing down your way ...with Rt 2/southern VT/NH (...say west of ASH), the mixing potential and adiabatic thermal layouts were initially a wash, so that left just cold ocean down there, and the clouds up here.  

We still managed 92 to 94 up and down the Mohawk Trail, and with DPs of 70 to 74 it was torrid and hot...  be that as it may, it fell short of the local jive "big heat" idea of 95.  Not sure if HI's should play a factor in that latter assessment tho - if so...we cooked.   

All told, ... the ceilings were oddly handled.  There were these odd stationary summit plumes of elevated strata/cirrus, that bulged into existence but then fanned down stream and stole some 10 or 20 someodd percent of heat potential.  That saved the interior areas from bigger numbers.  I'm not totally certain that idiosyncrasy was really modeled on whole.  Seemed sort of convenient to the heat nay-sayers (straw man argument perhaps) where that materialized and behaved that way. 

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2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Can't really complain much about June so far. It's been fairly comfortable and daylight loss starts soon.

What does that have to do with anything... 

You guys just loathe summer, regardless of type of weather...and this is like support group babble to get y'all throw it. Ha!

seriously ..it does come off as biding one's time and playing ratinalization games to get a teaspoon of nasty tasting medicine down sometimes.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What does that have to do with anything... 

You guys just loathe summer, regardless of type of weather...and this is like support group babble to get y'all throw it. Ha!

seriously ..it does come off as biding one's time and playing ratinalization games to get a teaspoon of nasty tasting medicine down sometimes.

It's my way of starting the countdown to winter and the start of ski season.

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll bet against it pretty heavily. 

I assumed so, Nam being the Nam....I am tired of watering the garden though, we could use a little bit more. I only got .19 yesterday, that was the first rain we have had since June 4th.

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13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What does that have to do with anything... 

You guys just loathe summer, regardless of type of weather...and this is like support group babble to get y'all throw it. Ha!

seriously ..it does come off as biding one's time and playing ratinalization games to get a teaspoon of nasty tasting medicine down sometimes.

People that loathe winter do the exact same thing.  They get all excited around 12/21 because they day gets "longer" all the while forgetting they have months and months of winter ahead.

Personally I don't loathe summer but I do mark the march of time across it as we leave and go back to my more favorable seasons.  I think others do too.  6/21 is just one of those dates. 

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On 6/19/2018 at 4:58 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

What does that have to do with anything... 

You guys just loathe summer, regardless of type of weather...and this is like support group babble to get y'all throw it. Ha!

seriously ..it does come off as biding one's time and playing ratinalization games to get a teaspoon of nasty tasting medicine down sometimes.

lol sounds like discussing decreasing daylight triggers Tippy a bit.  

I personally hate the decreasing daylight.  I wish it could be light until 9:30pm all year round.

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You just have to love the run to run consistency of the long range GFS, lol.  The latest run now has a week long heat wave for days 11-16 with 90's every day, with 4 days 98 or 99, but just 6 hours before there was just one day barely getting to 90.   But it will change again on the 0z run.

Since they last upgraded the GFS, I have found the actual daily high temps here consistently below even their 2-3 day forecasts.

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